March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Arizona State vs. Nevada
Arizona State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Desmond Cambridge |
14.3 |
4.1 |
2.3 |
18.4 |
16.7 |
20.7 |
2.8 |
1.6 |
| DJ Horne |
12.9 |
3.9 |
2.5 |
16.8 |
15.4 |
19.4 |
2.2 |
2.2 |
| Devan Cambridge |
9.3 |
5.8 |
0.8 |
15.1 |
10.1 |
15.9 |
0.8 |
1.7 |
| Frankie Collins |
9.3 |
4.4 |
4.2 |
13.7 |
13.5 |
17.8 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
| Warren Washington |
9.3 |
7.6 |
1.5 |
16.9 |
10.7 |
18.3 |
0.0 |
2.2 |
| Jamiya Neal |
5.0 |
3.4 |
1.6 |
8.4 |
6.6 |
10.1 |
0.7 |
0.7 |
| Austin Nunez |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Luther Muhammad |
2.9 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
3.9 |
3.3 |
4.3 |
0.2 |
0.6 |
| Alonzo Gaffney |
2.7 |
2.8 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
3.2 |
6.0 |
0.4 |
0.4 |
| Duke Brennan |
2.0 |
2.1 |
0.1 |
4.1 |
2.1 |
4.2 |
0.0 |
0.6 |
| Marcus Bagley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Enoch Boakye |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Bobby Hurley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Micah Burno |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| John Olmsted |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Ronzone |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Austin Ronzone |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jordan Williams |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Nevada Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Jarod Lucas |
16.9 |
3.6 |
1.3 |
20.5 |
18.2 |
21.8 |
2.6 |
5.1 |
| Kenan Blackshear |
14.3 |
5.6 |
4.2 |
20.0 |
18.6 |
24.2 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
| Will Baker |
12.1 |
6.3 |
0.7 |
18.5 |
12.8 |
19.2 |
0.7 |
3.0 |
| Darrion Williams |
7.3 |
9.9 |
2.5 |
17.2 |
9.9 |
19.8 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
| Nick Davidson |
7.0 |
5.5 |
0.4 |
12.5 |
7.4 |
12.9 |
0.8 |
2.3 |
| Tre Coleman |
5.9 |
4.2 |
2.4 |
10.1 |
8.3 |
12.4 |
0.9 |
1.2 |
| Trey Pettigrew |
0.5 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Tyler Powell |
0.4 |
0.3 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
| Daniel Foster |
0.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| K.J. Hymes |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Hunter McIntosh |
1.1 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
1.9 |
2.3 |
3.1 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
| Snookey Wigington |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| John Flannigan |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Arizona State vs. Nevada Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Arizona State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Frankie Collins Over 15.5 PRAs |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Devan Cambridge Over 7.5 Points |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Warren Washington Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
UB |
| Frankie Collins Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
| Warren Washington Over 1.5 Assists |
180 |
1 |
1.8 |
DK |
Nevada
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Darrion Williams Over 7.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Darrion Williams Over 17.5 PRAs |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
| Kenan Blackshear Over 22.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
DK |
| Kenan Blackshear Over 4.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Jarod Lucas Over 2.5 3Ps |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
DK |
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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