Auburn is still trying to push past the sting of a 43-34 home loss to Mississippi State last Saturday. With that defeat, the Tigers are now 6-4 on the season while falling out of the Top 25 in the last AP Poll. They are also 5-5 against the spread. Will Auburn’s fortune change on the road against South Carolina?
South Carolina has been uneven in 2021, but there’s some room for optimism when it comes to the Gamecocks. The 5-5 record is hardly anything to write home about, but South Carolina managed to run away with an encouraging 40-17 victory vs. Florida two weeks ago. Sure, the Gamecocks followed that up with a narrow loss to Missouri last Saturday, but there’s still reason to believe South Carolina can compete on a game-to-game basis.
We’ll break down all the betting angles of this Saturday evening matchup.
- Opening Line: Auburn -7.5
- Over/Under: 44.5
- Location: Williams-Brice Stadium
- Kickoff: 7:00 ET
Which version of Auburn is going to show up? Their defense has looked very good at times this season, but that’s called into question after allowing 43 points to Mississippi State. The good news for Auburn comes from a winnable matchup, albeit it comes on the road. The Tigers haven’t had much of a problem taking care of business away from home this season, as they handled LSU and Arkansas in two of their last three away games.
This number certainly favors South Carolina, as they need to keep things within a touchdown to cover the spread. As for the over/under, it’s pretty low at just 44.5 total points. That’s essentially a coinflip, in my opinion, as it’s hard to be sure if Auburn’s defense will show up or not. Both teams have gotten in random shootouts several times this season, so perhaps a tiny lean to the over while hoping for another 31-24 kind of game from South Carolina.
- The total is 4-2 to the OVER in Auburn’s last six games.
- South Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
- The total is 4-1 to the OVER in South Carolina’s last five games.
I believe this is a “get right” spot for Auburn. Am I in love with the 7.5 point spread? Not really. A meaningless backdoor touchdown could easily swing things in the wrong direction. However, Auburn has a clear talent advantage, and they have been a decent road team this season. I believe they’ll get the job done in South Carolina while pulling out a double-digit victory.
Pick: Auburn -7.5
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