It’s been a fun start to the NBA season. However, two teams still haven’t played - the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Denver Nuggets. Those two teams will battle in their respective games tonight. Here are some market-based EV NBA picks for tonight’s two-game slate.
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Thursday’s Best +EV NBA Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Jalen Williams Under 3.5 Assists (+138 at ProphetX)
- Fair Value: -115
- Market EV: +27%
Jalen Williams struggled to dish out assists in last year’s playoff series against the Spurs. In the four games he played, he had three or fewer assists in each game. In his last 10 games, Williams recorded at least four assists in only five.
Last season, the Nuggets ranked 20th in assists allowed to small forwards, which isn’t great. But in Denver’s last two games against Minnesota last season, the Nuggets held another small forward, Jaden McDaniels, to just four combined assists.
At +138, we’re getting a market EV of 27%. The fair value is -115. This is a no-brainer bet. Get it while you can.
Jamal Murray Under 3.5 Rebounds (+139 at Underdog)
- Fair Value: +117
- Market EV: +10%
Jamal Murray has earned at least four rebounds in eight of his last 10 games. He hit this line in 63% of games last season. But the market is trending the other way with Murray’s rebounds.
The fair value for Murray to go under 3.5 rebounds is +117, but Underdog has it listed at +139.
It looks like Julian Strawther will sit with an injury tonight. As a result, Murray’s total was likely bumped up a bit. However, Spencer Jones will likely play.
I’ll ride with the market and take Murray to go under 3.5 rebounds at +139.
James Harden Over 7.5 Assists (+144 at Kalshi)
- Fair Value: +144
- Market EV: +9%
James Harden struggled with assists against the New York Knicks in last year’s playoffs. During his last 10 games, he had at least eight assists just once.
Still, that doesn’t provide the whole story. Harden still hit at least eight assists 62% of the time last year and now has a +144 price tag to do so tonight.
That’s a 9% positive expected-value bet worth considering. Harden is facing his former team, which ranked 19th in assists allowed last season.
