We're down to the final 16 teams in the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League (UCL) season. The opening legs of the Round of 16 will be played on Tuesday and Wednesday, with four matches on each day. Arsenal (+250) remains the odds-on favorite to win the UCL title, while Bayern Munich (+500), Barcelona (+600) and Manchester City (+800) fall in line behind on the odds board.
These eight matches should produce some thrilling soccer, and I've got you covered if you're looking to get some skin in the game. Below, I've listed my top three bets from the midweek European action. Here are my favorite Champions League picks for Leg 1 of the Round of 16.
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Champions League Round of 16 Leg 1 Preview & Best Bets (2026)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Atalanta (+350) vs. Bayern Munich (-150), DRAW (+340) | O/U 3.5 (+120/-155)
Atalanta pulled off a miracle comeback over Borussia Dortmund in the last round, erasing a 2-0 first-leg deficit to ultimately advance 4-3 on aggregate. They'll try to knock off a second German giant in the Round of 16, where they're once again sizable underdogs to do so. The odds to advance heading into Tuesday's match say that Atalanta is +500, while Bayern Munich is -1000. Tuesday's game kicks off at 4:00 p.m. ET from New Balance Arena in Bergamo, Italy.
We should see a motivated Bayern Munich side on Tuesday, being that they have an 11-point first-place cushion back home in the Bundesliga. This team has been absolutely rolling on all fronts, but they should be able to turn their attention solely to the Champions League with the domestic league well in hand. Bayern Munich has won its last six matches in all competitions, and I believe that's a trend that'll continue on Tuesday.
My biggest issue with Atalanta is that they've failed to produce offensively. The 4-3 barnburning victory over Borussia Dortmund last round was an anomaly, as the previous nine Champions League clashes had seen the Italian squad combine for only 10 goals. Their 10 League Phase goals were 26th out of 36 teams.
Factor in the mediocre results domestically in Serie A, where Atalanta has posted a 12-10-6 record and sits in seventh place, and I simply think that these clubs are in different echelons. Give me Bayern Munich to take care of business and depart Italy with a lead.
Bet: Bayern Munich Moneyline (-150)
Bayer Leverkusen (+475) vs. Arsenal (-175), DRAW (+320) | O/U 2.5 (-115/-110)
Tournament favorites Arsenal will hit the road for their opening match of the Round of 16, where they'll take on Bayer Leverkusen. Bayern Leverkusen handled Olympiacos 2-0 in the last round, punching its ticket to the final 16 for the second consecutive season. This match is scheduled for Wednesday at 1:45 p.m. ET from BayArena in Leverkusen, Germany.
Arsenal is definitely the better team in this matchup, but I'm really not interested in wagering that they blowout Bayer Leverkusen in front of their home fans in the first leg. At this price of -125, I cannot pass up on The Factory XI getting a full goal. For starters, Bayer Leverkusen has been flawless at home recently, going 4-2-0 in their last six home games in all leagues. What's most reassuring is that their defense has held up well, allowing only one goal across the six-match sample size.
That leads me to my next point, which is that the sports betting market has settled on a low total of only 2.5 goals. Goals will be at a premium in this matchup, suggesting that us taking a full one goal has added value. There's a realistic chance that Arsenal emerges with a win, but if they do, I don't think it'll be a multi-goal victory. I expect Bayer Leverkusen to play the visitors tough, either pulling out a draw or losing by only one goal.
Bet: Bayer Leverkusen +1 (-125)
Real Madrid (+240) vs. Manchester City (+100), DRAW (+285) | O/U 2.5 (-170/+135)
The marquee match in the Round of 16 pits 15-time European champions Real Madrid against Manchester City. Despite a home-pitch advantage on Wednesday, Los Blancos are sizable +240 Moneyline underdogs to leave the capital city of Spain with a lead. Kick-off is slated for 4:00 p.m. ET from Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain.
I'll bump this total up to a flat three goals and play the over at -110. These teams have plenty of familiarity, as they've gone toe-to-toe in the knockout stages in the last four seasons. We have a nice set of data, and these matches typically tend to skew towards a lot of scoring.
Dating back to 2020, the over at a line of three has cashed at a rate of 6-3-2 in their 11 head-to-head meetings. And to clear up any confusion, that record is listed in soccer terms, meaning there have been at least three combined goals in nine of the last 11 matches.
Both offenses have looked sharp in the early parts of the Champions League season. Real Madrid's 24 goals across 10 matches are the third-most in the tournament. As for Manchester City, they're also averaging north of two goals per game, tallying 15 goals in their eight League Phase contests.
Ultimately, with two of the league's top four scorers in Kylian Mbappe (13 goals) and Erling Haaland (seven goals) being featured in this game, I think we'll see some fireworks. Give me the over.
Bet: Alt Total Over 3.0 Goals (-110)
