College Basketball Odds, Picks & Predictions: Saturday (11/23)

Feast Week is among us and we have some of the best college basketball games this upcoming week you'll see until March. We've already seen some early exciting games like Baylor-St. John's and Arizona-Duke and it seems like there will be plenty more coming up. For those who think college basketball is a March-only sport, I'm sorry. You've missed a lot.

I'll be here weekly to take you through the day's matchups, providing previews and my best bets to go along with it. As always, be sure to shop around as college basketball odds vary across platforms, especially as you go down the line to the mid-major contests. There are some fantastic values every single day and the weekend slate is no exception. With football season still in full swing, basketball takes a bit of a backseat but we still have some exciting previews to get to. Let's dive in.

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Saturday's Best College Basketball Bets

Last Time: 3-2 | Season: 3-2

Georgia vs. Marquette

If you told me that two power conference 5-0 teams are facing off early in the season in the Bahamas, I would be a bit more excited than what Georgia-Marquette might offer but hey, I'm not picky. Marquette here is a consensus 6.5-point favorite with a total of around 153.

Both teams may be undefeated but the Marquette strength of schedule is significantly more impressive. Per Haslametrics, the Golden Eagles rank 82nd in strength of schedule with the Bulldogs sitting at 309th. Additionally, Marquette has the third-best record quality compared to Georgia's 28th rank. Those rankings largely come from one game – a Marquette drubbing of the former runner-up Purdue Boilermakers. In that 76-58 victory, Kam Jones showed his dynamic playmaking, registering a triple-double while Stevie Mitchell led the way with 21 points. David Joplin, Marquette's sharpshooter, only went 1-6 from deep, showcasing how many options the Golden Eagles have on offense.

What was more surprising in this game was Marquette's defense. Limiting any team to 58 points and 0.85 points per possession is impressive already but doing so against Purdue is something else. It does help that the game was played in the Fiserv Forum but that is still a top-10 offense that couldn't generate much from deep besides Braden Smith and was pressured all night into forcing 15 turnovers and bad looks all night.

That comes to the crux of this matchup in the Bahamas this Saturday morning. Georgia may be undefeated but they have yet to face a top-100 defense and the single top-200 defense they faced is a Georgia Tech team with the 328th lowest turnover rate forced in the country. The Bulldogs' dynamic five-star freshman Asa Newell has hit the ground running with double-digit scoring efforts in all five games but this will be his first big test. Silas Demary runs point for Georgia and his slashing type might not work against a Marquette team that's disciplined defensively and avoids fouling. Over 25 percent of the Bulldogs' points have come from the free throw line which ranks 29th in DI and if they aren't getting any freebies, where does their scoring come from? The clear answer is on the boards and in second-chance looks, as Georgia comes in ranking fifth in offensive rebound rate and fourth in second-chance conversion percentage. The thing is, Marquette ranks 17th in near-proximity defense and seventh in limiting second-chance conversions. Like I said, this will be Asa Newell's first real test against this Marquette frontcourt and it will be fascinating to watch.

In the end, I expect Marquette to handle Georgia. Shaka Smart has built a team with the eighth-best turnover rate so you can expect a shot attempt in nearly every possession. They may not be deadly from deep but their second-ranked mid-range offense and ability to get up and go in transition off expected turnovers should prove too much for the Bulldogs, who will struggle to shoot from deep on the neutral court. As a six-point home favorite against a top-five-ish team in the country, I'm happy to back them in a similar line on a neutral court against a team outside the top 50.

Prediction: Marquette 75, Georgia 67

Best Bet: Georgia Under 72.5 points (-105 on DK)

Cincinnati at Georgia Tech

After a sub-.500 record a year ago, Georgia Tech entered with some expectations this season with the chance for potential breakout campaigns from their young stars. Naithan George and Bay Ndongo registered promising freshman campaigns, coach Damon Stoudamire brought in a freshman haul with some transfers expected to immediately contribute and the Yellow Jackets were ready to take a step forward this year. So far, that hasn't exactly been the case. GT allowed 1.28 points per possession to North Florida in the second game of the year and only managed 0.92 points per possession against the lone top-200 defense faced. Not great.

The opposing Bearcats are a different story so far. Jizzle James has taken a step forward in his sophomore campaign with his assist rate and scoring skyrocketing. Simas Lukosius has come out of the woodwork as well, pacing all DI players with a 94.6 effective field goal percentage. Yes, their strength of schedule so far ranks 340th but so far Cincinnati has only taken care of business with their closest win coming by 16 points and leading the nation with an overall 64.6 effective field goal percentage.

The main battle here will be in the paint. Cincinnati is one of the tallest teams in the nation but Georgia Tech has done a respectable job on the defensive glass and limiting second-chance looks. On the other side, Cincy has allowed opponents to haul in around a third of their misses so if the Yellow Jackets can crash the glass offensively they won't need a spectacular shooting night to keep this game close against a Bearcats defense that won't allow anything from deep and will give GT zero freebies with the 10th lowest free throw rate in the country.

The program that Wes Miller has built is impressive and as someone who tagged Cincinnati as a dark horse Final Four contender, Cincinnati has only affirmed those priors as they've moved all the way up to 10th overall in KenPom. Georgia Tech might be able to limit Cincy's red hot shooting from deep. But down low and on the elbows, I expect Dillon Mitchell and Jizzle James to excel. Until proven otherwise, I'm going to back the best shooting team in the nation and feel comfortable doing so.

Prediction: Cincinnati 79, Georgia Tech 68

Best Bet: Cincinnati -7.5 (-110 on FanDuel)

UC San Diego vs. Toledo

You didn't think we could get out of here without discussing the Boardwalk Battle Championship this evening now can we? Toledo and UC San Diego face off for their third straight game in Daytona Beach, Florida. The Rockets sit around a 1.5-point favorite with the total a consensus 151.5 across the board.

What stands out in this game is how well both teams take care of the ball. UC San Diego ranks 10th DI, giving the rock away at a 12 percent clip while Toledo paces the country with the lowest turnover rate in the nation. Stetson and Jacksonville State are some of the worst teams in the nation at forcing turnovers but against Marshall and Troy they still took care of the ball well. Point guard Sonny Wilson is the court general with a high assist rate and a bucket getter, able to score anywhere on the floor while frontcourt piece Jaylan Ouwinga has helped lead Toledo to a 5-1 record and a top-100 near-proximity shooting percentage.

The Tritons haven't had as good of a start going 4-2 under Eric Olen but they are coming off two impressive wins over La Salle and James Madison, both in the KenPom top-150. Aniwaniwa Tait-Jones is the do-everything forward who is elite at getting to the charity stripe and can find himself getting halfway to a triple-double any given night. Hayden Gray has been a sharpshooter at point and Tyler McGhie can go off at any time in the backcourt.

My question here is fatigue. Both teams are playing their third-straight game in three days and both rank outside the top-300 in bench minutes with UC San Diego going to their bench at a bottom-10 rate in the country. Not only might the three-straight games be tough on both teams but for Toledo who plays at the 38th-fastest pace, UCSD might struggle to keep up. The Tritons rank 337th in mid-range defense and 250th in perimeter defense as well so they don't have much room to falter defensively.

In the end, I'm surprised at how close this spread is. UC San Diego has a bit more momentum but Toledo is the better team. With the projected spread so close if this does come down to the wire, Toledo is significantly better at free throw shooting and the Rockets have shot 40 percent from deep so far this year, coming off a 14-25 shooting effort against Jacksonville State yesterday. Given how Toledo will get a shot off nearly all of their possessions, they don't have to be efficient to pull away and I expect their pace of play to be too much for UCSB.

Prediction: Toledo 79, UC San Diego 74

Best Bet: Toledo -1.5 (-106 on FD)