Carter Jensen came through for us last night after he launched a homer for a +400 cash. Let’s keep that momentum going with today’s MLB home run props. I’ve got some really good spots I can’t wait to attack. Join me below.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Alex Bregman (+520)
We gave Alex Bregman a chance last night, but he didn’t come through. I’m not afraid to roll with him again today.
Bregman has a .346 ISO and a wOBA of .412 against his last 89 righties. He has a 10.1% strikeout rate and a limited groundball rate of 38.6%. Beyond that, he’s earned an 11.4% barrel rate against righties.
Bregman will battle Rhett Lowder of the Reds, who has allowed a .381 ISO and a wOBA of .445 to his last 44 righties. Those righties have smashed a 16.2% barrel rate and have hit 54.1% of hard contact.
Lowder has been awful all season. Let’s see if Bregman can take advantage.
Jakob Marsee (+870)
Here’s a little bit of a longshot play.
Jakob Marsee has a .310 ISO and a wOBA of .498 against his last 70 righties. That’s a solid sample size and some great numbers. Marsee has hit ground balls just 30.6% of the time and has added 46.9% of hard contact against righties.
Today, Marsee is up against Walker Buehler of the Padres, who has allowed a .298 ISO and a wOBA of .417 to his last 64 lefties. Those lefties have hit 57.8% of hard contact and nearly 27% of fly balls. Buehler has also allowed an 11.1% barrel rate to his last 64 lefties.
Marsee isn’t a true power slugger. But things check out today. At +870 odds, I’ll ride it out with Marsee.
Garrett Mitchell (+560)
Garrett Mitchell has smashed a .311 ISO and a wOBA of .494 against his last 49 righties. The left-hander strikes out a lot and hits a bunch of ground balls, but he’s also added 35.5% of line drives, 61.3% hard contact and a 12.9% barrel rate against righties in the last month.
Mitchell is set to face Brandon Young in a primetime game tonight on Sunday Night Baseball. Young has allowed a .323 ISO and a wOBA of .382 to his last 80 lefties. Young has also given up over 30% of fly balls to lefties and continues to fall behind in counts in the last 30 days.
Mitchell will bat second in tonight’s lineup, giving him plenty of chances to hit one out. At +560, there’s value with Mitchell tonight.
