NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Chiefs

The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites at home against the visiting Colts after both teams were on opposite ends of beatdowns in Week 1, with Kansas City smashing the Broncos and Indianapolis getting molly whopped by the Ravens. It can be misguided to put too much weight on Week 1, but the following same-game parlay (SGP) leans into a mix of last week’s data, the betting line and numbers dating back to last season.

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NFL Sunday Night Football Same Game Parlay: Colts vs. Chiefs

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs

Leg 1: Patrick Mahomes 10+ Rushing Yards (-290)
Leg 2: Kenneth Walker III 70+ Rushing Yards (-210)
Leg 3: Rashee Rice Under 52.5 Receiving Yards (-111)
Leg 4: Josh Downs Over 42.5 Receiving Yards (-109)
Leg 5: Jonathan Taylor Over 16.5 Receiving Yards (-107)

According to the Fantasy Points Data Suite 2.0, in Week 1, the Chiefs were 20th in pass rate over expected (-0.9% PROE), and the Colts were 22nd in PROE faced (-2.7%). Andy Reid and Eric Bieniemy force-fed their prized free-agent addition Kenneth Walker III, and he responded by exploding for a Week 1-high 173 rushing yards at 7.52 yards per carry on 23 attempts, with an absurd 16 missed tackles forced. Conversely, Derrick Henry trucked the Colts for the third-most rushing yards of the week, rolling up 144 at 6.00 yards per carry on 24 attempts.

The Chiefs were second in PROE (7.8%) from 2023 through 2025. The shift in their play-calling tendencies was seismic, but after last week’s success and watching the Ravens steamroll Indianapolis’s run defense, they’d be wise to stick with what worked.

When Patrick Mahomes does drop back, he is a threat to scramble, despite coming back from reconstructive knee surgery. Mahomes scrambled four times for 27 yards in Week 1. He finished the game with 23 yards on seven rush attempts because of kneel-downs.

Mahomes could be busy again this week against Indy’s man-heavy coverage. The Colts had an NFL-high 53.3% man-coverage rate last week. They can’t be expected to maintain that rate of man coverage, but they played it at a well above-average rate last year in the three games that Sauce Gardner played at least 50% of snaps.

While the man-coverage tendencies are favorable for Mahomes’ rushing outlook, it’s disastrous for Rashee Rice’s receiving potential. Among 120 wide receivers with at least 100 routes against man coverage since 2024, Rice is 90th in yards per route run (1.20 Y/RR). The average for wideouts from that sample was 1.74 Y/RR.

Moreover, Rice’s Week 1 showing was salvaged by a touchdown reception when the Broncos looked like a team that’s never practiced tackling. After an offseason that included clean-up surgery on his knee and spending 30 days in jail for violating probation, his two targets (7.4% target share and 0.07 TPRR), two receptions, 10.0% first-read rate, 19 receiving yards, and 0.70 Y/RR were alarming.

If the Colts are in a negative game script, they’ll need to air it out to play catch-up. Josh Downs didn’t have an exciting stat line in Week 1, reeling in two receptions for 37 yards. It wasn’t all bad, though.

Instead, Downs was first on the team in route participation rate (85.3%), logged a 17.2% wide-alignment rate and still played in the slot 82.8% of the time. He could also benefit from Kansas City’s Week 1 coverage. The Chiefs are third in man-coverage rate (36.4%) and have a 54.5% two-high coverage rate in 2026.

Among Indy’s five players with at least 60 routes against man coverage in 2025, Downs’ 0.28 TPRR was first, comfortably ahead of Alec Pierce’s 0.21 TPRR. In addition, among their players with at least 80 routes against two-high coverage, Downs was first in TPRR (0.25) and third in yards per route run (1.70). Michael Pittman was ahead of him in yards per route run against two-high coverage, but he’s in Pittsburgh now. FantasyPros projects Downs to have 42.2 receiving yards on Sunday Night Football.

Jonathan Taylor’s bread and butter is his elite rushing ability. Still, he’s not a nothing in the passing attack. In 18 games since last year, he has had a 59.2% route participation rate, 10.0% target share, 0.15 TPR, 2.7 receptions per game, 22.3 receiving yards per game and 1.07 Y/RR. According to StatHead, Taylor has surpassed 16.5 receiving yards in 10 of those 18 games.

Parlay Odds: +1100

Josh Shepardson is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Josh, check out his archive and follow him @BChad50.