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The Florida State Seminoles and Boise State Broncos will meet Saturday for the first time in the history of the two programs. Weather has already had a huge impact on the game, as the location and time of the game have changed from Jacksonville at 7 pm to Tallahassee at 12 pm. Therefore, what was once a neutral site contest will now be a home game for Florida State.
The Seminoles are looking to bounce back after the most disappointing season in school history, while the Broncos look to begin anew with freshman quarterback Hank Bachmeier.
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- Opening Lines: Florida State opened as four-point favorites but have been a popular pick, seeing their line get as high as -6 before settling at -5.5. Now that the game is in Doak, lines have jumped all the way to -7. The over/under started at 54 and has moved down, probably due to the inclement weather.
- Current Line: Florida State -7
- O/U: 52
- Location: Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
- Start Time: 12:00 pm ET
- Television: ESPNNews
- Last Meeting: First Meeting
Overview
Did anyone have a more disappointing season than Florida State in 2018? With Deondre Francois back after an injury, the Noles started the season ranked 19th in the country. In their first game, they were blown out at home by Virginia Tech and things never improved from there. For the first time in 36 years, Florida State missed a bowl game, and thus the Willie Taggart era was off to as bad a start as possible.
Francois is gone, and James Blackman is back as the starting QB for the season opener against the Broncos. After playing 12 games in 2017, Blackman played in just three games during 2018, only getting significant playing time against North Carolina State in a 47-28 loss. Blackman seems like a good choice for the Noles, but the offensive line was dreadful last season and looks to be just as bad this year. The defense also struggled mightily last year, giving up over 40 points in four of their last five games.
Meanwhile, Boise State lost a lot of talent on the offensive end with the departures of Brett Rypien and Alexander Mattison but still return a host of talented wide receivers for freshman starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier. If Bachmeier struggles in his first start, traveling to the other side of the country, we could see a unique scenario where a Boise State offense actually struggles to score points.
While the offense could be a question mark, the one area where Boise State has a huge advantage over Florida State is in the trenches. Their defense, which was ranked No. 20 in the nation last season against the run, returns seven starters and 10 of their top 13 tacklers. They will be up against an offensive line on Saturday that struggled mightily last season, and with weather expected to be a factor in the contest, the run game could be important for both teams. If that's the case, the advantage tilts clearly towards the Broncos.
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Trends
- Florida State is 1-4 ATS and SU in their last five games.
- Florida State is 2-4 ATS in their last six as a favorite.
- Boise State is 7-1 SU in their last eight, and 5-0 ATS in their last five games as an underdog.
- The total has gone UNDER in six of the last seven Boise State Week 1 games, and in their last five games overall.
- The total has gone OVER in four of the last five for Florida State.
- Boise State ended last season with a 19-16 overtime loss to Fresno State. Their bowl game against Boston College was ultimately canceled due to weather.
- Florida State lost their final game of 2018 to rival Florida, 41-14.
Bottom Line
Even though they are no longer playing in the part of Florida expected to be most affected by the storm, Tallahassee should see relatively sloppy conditions which will allow Boise State's defense to wreak havoc on Florida State's offensive line. The Broncos offense likely won't be the same as it was last season due to the departures of Brett Rypien and Alexander Mattison, but if there's one thing that the Broncos always seem to do, it's finding a way to replace talent with talent. They're a Group of 5 team, but that doesn't mean they're worse than an ACC school still looking to find their way. Even as this becomes a road game, I still think Boise wins. To play it safe I’ll take the points.
Pick: Boise State +7
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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.