The College Football Playoff (CFP) committee has stated teams not playing in conference title games would not be penalized. That means the 12-team field is just about set.
There are still a few CFP markets with odds at online sportsbooks: Whether Alabama and/or SMU will make the field and who will be the No. 1 seed.
Let's take a look at the CFP odds for the markets mentioned above, along with some bowl projections for the odd teams out.
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College Football Playoff Futures & Bowl Predictions
(Odds Courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook unless otherwise stated)
Alabama/SMU to Make the CFP
Here are the odds for Alabama and SMU to make the CFP:
- Alabama to Make the 2024/25 College Football Playoff
- SMU to Make the 2024/25 College Football Playoff
Many have expressed outrage over Alabama jumping to No. 11 in the standings over Miami. Could some bias exist? Sure, but when you've been a National Championship contender for as long as Alabama has been you're going to get the benefit of the doubt. However, the CFP Committee said teams not playing this weekend would not be penalized. But Alabama is not a lock.
The five highest-ranked conference champions will get automatic bids into the CFP. If a team not in the top 12 wins its conference it gets a slot. However, in the process, the team presently ranked No. 12 is out. If two such teams win, No. 11 Alabama and No. 12 Miami are out. No. 10 Boise State would likely drop out if it lost to UNLV. SMU will drop out if Clemson prevails and both Big 12 teams are outside of the top 12.
Since the Big 12 title game is between No. 16 Iowa State and No. 14 Arizona State, Miami gets pushed out. SMU is only a 2.5-point favorite over Clemson and Boise State is just a 4-point favorite over UNLV.
CFP No. 1 Seed Odds
It's between No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Texas and No. 3 Penn State. Here are their respective odds of being the No. 1 seed (odds via bet365):
With a win in the Big Ten title game over Penn State, Oregon will lock down the No. 1 spot (the Ducks are 3.5-point favorites). Penn State would have a good case for jumping Texas if they beat Oregon. But if Texas wins big over Georgia? Probably not. If Oregon loses and Texas wins convincingly, the Longhorns will likely move up.
CFP Best Bets
Oregon is not going to lose the Big Ten to Penn State. Take the Ducks at -180 to be the No. 1 seed.
SMU makes the CFP if they beat Clemson. Rather than take them to make it at -400, bet on whether they'll cover the spread (-2.5 at -108 or -135 Moneyline).
If Alabama is going to make it, No. 10 Boise State needs to win the Mountain West title game over UNLV. Instead of taking the Crimson Tide to make the CFP at -370, bet on Boise State to cover the spread (-4 at -112 or -180 Moneyline).
Bowl Projections
Here are our latest Bowl projections for Miami, Ole Miss, South Carolina, UNLV and the loser of the Big 12 title game.
- Miami: Holiday Bowl
The ACC runner-up went to the Holiday Bowl last season, but many projections online have Clemson going to the Pop-Tarts Bowl, so I'm going with the Canes here.
- Ole Miss: Citrus Bowl
Ole Miss will more than likely be the highest-ranked SEC team left out. Consequently, they'll likely get a bid to the Citrus Bowl. It typically gets one of the top SEC teams not in the playoffs.
- South Carolina: Liberty Bowl
After the Citrus Bowl, the Liberty Bowl should get the best remaining SEC team, which should be South Carolina.
- UNLV: Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
There isn't a pecking order for the bowl games with Mountain West affiliations. I'm going with the one I'd like to go to most if I was a college football player. Although the Hawaii Bowl would be lovely, too…
- Big 12 Loser: Alamo Bowl
As the top option of games the Big 12 is affiliated with, it is the most likely landing spot for the Big 12 title game loser (probably Iowa State).
