College Football National Championship PrizePicks Player Predictions: Washington vs. Michigan

This is one of my favorite articles because College Football's prop lines are softer than the NFL's. This will be a deep dive into the National Championship game, where I will look at numerous factors that will lead us to our props predictions. I will examine target distribution, target depth EPA, play action and motion tactics, coverage schemes, and personnel packages. Buckle up and enjoy the conclusion of the College Football season. Let’s dive in!

College Football National Championship PrizePicks Predictions

Glossary

EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays
Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down
Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%

Michael Penix Jr (QB – Washington) Passing Yards over 291.5

College Football National Championship PrizePicks Predictions

Glossary

EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays
Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down, and 100% on third and fourth down
Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%

Michael Penix Jr (QB – Washington) Passing Yards over 291.5

26th in Big Dog Atts (43.7%)
133rd in Mickey Mouse Atts (49.5%)
65th in Medium Atts %
16th in Medium PFF Grade
9th in Medium QB Rating
13th in Deep Atts %
26th in Deep PFF Grade
56th in Deep QB Rating
Washington 3rd in PROE on Standard Downs (+17.2%)
Washington 6th in PROE on Passing Downs (+14.8%)
Washington 2nd in Play Action EPA/Pass Att (+.485)
Washington 45th in Play Action Attempts % (34.5%)
Washington 10th in Motion EPA/Pass Att (+.311)
Washington 20th in Motion Attempts % (42.4%)
Washington 5th in EPA/Pass Att with Play Action and Motion (+.548)
Washington 11th in EPA/11 Personnel Pass Att (+.221)
Washington 23rd in 11 Personnel Atts % (83.2%)
Washington 5th in EPA/12 Personnel Pass Att (+.514)
Washington 59th in 12 Personnel Atts % (13.5%)
Michigan 10th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
Michigan 2nd in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
Michigan 64th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts
Michigan 90th in Def Pass IsoPPP

So this is a lot of information to take in all at once. What I am trying to show you is that for as good as Michigan’s defense has been this year, there are spots we can exploit. Also, it shows the comptency of the Washington offense. They play to their strengths and use modern tendencies to manipulate defenses. Michigan’s biggest reasoning for disrupting Alabama’s explosive offense was simply their ablity to get pressure on Jalen Milroe. Washington’s offensive line is elite and will be the best unit that Michigan has faced all year. Michael Penix has been kept clean 75.7% of the time, which ranks 18th in College Football. When you pair that with the lack of talent Michigan has faced at quarterback this year, it is quite eye-opening. Michigan has faced one quarterback that ranks inside the top 60 in both Medium PFF Grade and Medium QB Rating, insert Drew Allar 27th in Medium PFF Grade and 34th in Medium QB Rating. No one with two eyes would confuse Drew Allar with the Michael Penix Jr. He is elite in the medium depth of the field, ranking 16th in Medium PFF Grade and 9th in Medium QB Rating. I do think we will see a difference in play calling inside the redzone vs what we saw in the Texas game. Washington had 14 plays inside the Texas 20 yard line and only attempted two passes. If you want to stack Penix’s passing yards prop with his TD prop, you could see variance this time around.

Jack Westover (TE – Washington) Recieving Yards over 25.5

Washington 5th in EPA/Pass Attempt to TEs (+.698)
Washington 47th in targeting TEs (10.6%)
Washington 5th in EPA/12 Personnel Attempt (+.514)
Washington 59th in 12 Personnel Attempts % (13.5%)
Jack Westover 2nd in Short Targets on Washington (29)
Jack Westover 69% of Targets are Short Targets (1-9 Yards)
Jack Westover 106.3 Short QB Rating when Targeted
Michigan 34th in EPA/Pass Attempt to TEs (-.051)
Michigan 24th in EPA/Short Attempt (-.042)

Jack Westover is going underlooked in the props market, simply because the other weapons on this offense will garner the majority of the attention. Washington is elite in targeting TEs and elite in 12 personnel. Michigan plays zone coverage for the majority of its pass coverage and that’s great news for Jack Westover. An overwhelming 66% of Westover’s targets come against zone coverage and produces a QB rating of 126.6 when targeted. This is an easy play for me because Westover will not be made a priority by this defense and should have numerous targets with space to operate.

Jalen McMillan (WR – Washington) Receiving Yards over 60.5

Jalen McMillan 88.5% of overall targets come from the slot (46 slot targets)
Jalen McMillan 458 slot yards (leads team)
Jalen McMillan produces a 134.1 QB Rating when targeted in slot (leads team)
Washington 26th in slot target % (42.1%)
Michigan 32nd in EPA/Slot Pass Att (-.021)
Jalen McMillan 30.4% of Targets are Short Targets
Jalen McMillan 28.3% of Targets are Deep Targets

Jalen McMillan is the primary slot receiver in this offense and if he hadn’t had injury issues in the middle of the year he would of compiled more than his modest receiving yard total. Even though he has played in four less games than his teammates, he leads the team in slot yards. McMillan is a technician and should be able to find room to operate.

Roman Wilson (WR- Michigan) Recieving Yards over 47.5

Roman Wilson 63.5% of Overall Targets are Slot Targets (40)
Roman Wilson 134.8 QB Rating when targeted in the Slot
Roman Wilson 434 Slot yards (leads team)
Michigan 1st in EPA/Slot Att (+.784)
Michigan 35th in Slot Atts % (40.6%)
Washington 64th in EPA/Slot Att (+.119)

Roman Wilson is an extremely underrated weapon on this Michigan offense. He has a QB Rating when targeted over 115 at every single depth when targeted (short, medium, and deep). Even though he is operating primarily out of the slot, he doesn’t just run slot style routes. His target distribution is as follows 29.3% Deep, 39.7% Medium, and 29.3% Short. This versatility will give him numerous opportunites to soar over this total. This game looks to be a back and forth affair. If Washington forces Michigan to open up their offense to compete, then Wilson will be a huge benefactor.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Thanks for reading! It has been an amazing College Football season and cannot wait to dive into the offseason news!!! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!