And just like that, we're down to the final three college football games of the 2025-26 campaign. The College Football Playoff (CFP) semi-finals get started on Thursday night with a Fiesta Bowl showdown between the No. 10 Miami Hurricanes (12-2) and the No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels (13-1). Kick-off is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, AZ.
Below, I'll break down all of the key metrics to get you primed for betting on the Fiesta Bowl. Here are the odds, early line movements and my top college football picks & predictions for Thursday's CFP clash between Miami and Ole Miss.
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College Football Picks & Predictions: Fiesta Bowl
(Odds via BetMGM)
Miami Hurricanes (-3.5) vs. Ole Miss Rebels (+3.5) | O/U 51.5 (-115/-105)
The Fiesta Bowl spread opened up Miami -3 at most sportsbooks, and it has since been bet out to -3.5 points. As for the total, it opened at 51.5 points and is currently sitting in the 51.5-to-52.5-point range. At BetMGM, the total has held steady at the opening line.
I agree with the action that's come in on the Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) representative, and I'm locking in Miami -3.5 with an even-money, +100 payout. We're getting down to crunch time, and this is where we can lean on the adages, "Defense wins championships" and "The game is won in the trenches."
Miami is second-to-none when it comes to its offensive and defensive lines. According to Pro Football Focus (PFF), Coach Mario Cristobal's offensive line is graded as the top-ranked pass-blocking group (87.4), while their defense is first in pass rushing (92.3). They're 10th in run-blocking (75.1) and 15th in run-stopping (92.1).
While Mississippi quarterback Trinidad Chambliss put on a clinic against Georgia in the CFP quarter-finals, this will be a major step up in competition. The Bulldogs were just the 126th-ranked pass-rushing team (62.3), per PFF. Chambliss and the Rebels’ offense will be taking on a Miami defense ranked fourth in defensive scoring (13.1 points allowed per game), third in sacks per game (3.3), 13th in yards allowed per pass (10.3) and sixth in yards allowed per rush attempt (2.8). This Miami defense is elite.
On the other hand, Miami has rushed for 328 combined yards in its first two CFP games. They should have no issue pounding the ball with running back Mark Fletcher Jr. They draw an Ole Miss side that's a pedestrian 22nd in run-stopping (91.3), per PFF, while coming in at just 81st in tackling (66.3). As for the baseline metrics, head coach Pete Golding's defense is conceding 4.2 yards per rush (68th) and 5.2 yards per play (40th).
The bottom line is that the path to the College Football Playoff National Championship is pretty straightforward for Miami. They're the better team in the trenches, so as long as they take care of the ball and convert a few of their red-zone trips, they should prevail comfortably. Give me the Hurricanes -3.5 at +100.
Bet: Miami Hurricanes -3.5 (+100)
