College Football Odds, Picks & Predictions: Week 11 (2025)

College football betting expert Scott Bogman will provide his top picks and predictions for every week of college football action. Let’s get ready for this weekend’s games with Bogman’s best college football bets for Week 11. Check out all of his top college football Week 11 picks and predictions below.

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College Football Week 11 Bets & Picks

(Odds and lines via BettingPros’ consensus betting information)

Let’s dive into our top college football picks and leans for Week 11.

No. 22 Missouri vs. No. 3 Texas A&M

Texas A&M is on a heater right now, and it seems like nothing can stop them. They will probably win this game, but the line has jumped out way too much to be valuable. Texas A&M had a nice stretch of defensive performances after allowing 20+ points to start against UTSA and Utah State, and the embarrassing 41-40 defensive performance against Notre Dame.

The Aggies buckled down after the Notre Dame game, allowing only 10 points to Auburn, nine to Mississippi State and 17 to Florida. It was fixed before Arkansas put 42 points and 527 yards on them. Even in the thrashing of LSU, they allowed 25 points. The offense for Texas A&M is white hot, but the defense has been struggling against the run.

Missouri has been struggling on offense with a hot defense, the opposite of Texas A&M. The highest total the Tigers have given up was 31 to Kansas, but a pick-six makes it truly 24 points, with 27 being the true high to Alabama. The Tigers’ last game was a tough loss to Vanderbilt two weeks ago, but they held Vanderbilt to 17 points and 265 total yards. Only Alabama held Vanderbilt to a lower total this season (14), and no other defense has held Vanderbilt to fewer than 300 yards.

The offense is the issue for Missouri. Beau Pribula is out for the season, and freshman Matt Zollers is going to have to make throws under a lot of pressure. Luckily, Missouri will be able to run first to set up the pass, doing so with a top-10 rushing offense and an offensive line that was very strong before the recent road trip.

Public betting is split on this; both teams are coming in with extra rest, and the Aggies are riding high on this undefeated streak. The value is shown to Missouri and the over. These bets depend on Zollers making plays when called upon, but two weeks to prepare, starting at home and one of the best run offenses and total defenses in the country should be enough to help him get there.

The Aggies will probably keep their streak alive, but this is more likely to be a high-scoring affair between two quick-moving offenses. Bet on Missouri plus the points and the over.

Pick: Missouri +6.5 & Over 48.5 Points

No. 23 Washington vs. Wisconsin

There isn't a polite way to put it: Wisconsin's offense has been inept this season. The defense has been average for the Big 10, which is well below average for Wisconsin traditionally, but the big problems are on offense. The Badgers have suffered injuries at quarterback, left tackle, center and running back this season, and really over the past few seasons under head coach Luke Fickell.

The quarterback problem is the most significant issue as Wisconsin is currently 135th out of 136 teams in scoring offense, total offense and passing grade. The quarterback job has been kicked between Danny O'Neil and Hunter Simmons after starter Billy Edwards injured his knee. The highest total they have reached in conference play this season is 10 points in five games. The schedule has been brutal for Wisconsin, with the second-hardest strength of schedule in the FBS, according to Pro Football Focus (PFF), but Washington is no reprieve from that.

The Huskies are 6-2 with their losses coming to Ohio State at home and Michigan on the road. Washington was beaten soundly by Ohio State (like everyone has been) and embarrassed by Michigan with turnovers and a horrible run defense against Michigan. The Wolverines may have lit a fire under the Huskies as they ripped Illinois for 42 points and 449 yards the next week. Washington has been significantly better offensively and has struggled against some strong offenses, needing to outscore them; however, Wisconsin shouldn't be a challenge.

The over is the play in most Washington games with the three-headed monster of quarterback Demond Williams, running back Jonah Coleman and wide receiver Denzel Boston putting up points, and the defense giving them back up. The Wisconsin offense makes this one way better to just lay the points, so no one has to count on Wisconsin scoring points. The Badgers have survived coaching rumors with Fickell not doing himself any favors with fans, but there has been no quit yet; their best efforts are not producing results. Washington should win this going away, and we see it closer to two touchdowns than the current 11.5.

Pick: Washington -10.5

Florida vs. Kentucky

The Gators are finally seeing a game that they can win on the schedule, and they aren't entirely out of bowl contention, but this is a must-win game if they are even going to make a run at it. Florida can beat a struggling Florida State team, but it will be a large underdog to Ole Miss and Tennessee.

The Gators have had their issues on offense, leading to the firing of head coach Billy Napier, and we have seen the potential in a big win at home against Texas that is looking better and better. A 3.5 number is not as surprising for either Florida or Kentucky when factoring in strength of schedule, which is first for the Gators and third for the Wildcats. Kentucky may not have the upside Florida does, but they have held strong against Ole Miss and Texas, and ended up being the reason Hugh Freeze is out at Auburn.

Florida goes as quarterback DJ Lagway does; the win against Texas was his best game (298-2), and he was so bad in the losses to LSU (five interceptions) and at Miami (61 passing yards). The Georgia defense was able to rein in Lagway (166 passing yards), and Mississippi State and Texas A&M also forced turnovers (five between those two games). Thankfully for Florida, Kentucky has only forced eight turnovers all year (97th) and ranks in the 90s in both statistical rank and grade of their pass defense. The offensive line keeping Lagway clean will lead to big plays.

The Kentucky homefield advantage was looking strong, as their worst defeats had come on the road against South Carolina and Georgia. Kentucky had covered the spread at home against Ole Miss and Texas, but Tennessee put a stop to that by scoring 56 points and gaining 504 yards at Kroger Field, with only 24 minutes of possession.

Florida will struggle offensively and be down in this game, and can still come back and cover this spread at any time. Lagway only had to complete seven passes in this game in Gainesville last season because Jadan Baugh rushed for five touchdowns in a 48-20 Gators victory. The Gators can cover this spread even in a bad performance and will crush it if they play up to their ability.

Pick: Florida -3.5

No. 1 Ohio State vs. Purdue

The Buckeyes are going to win this game going away, but we can't quite get to the 29.5 points the line has moved out to, but the under is showing a lot of value. The Buckeyes’ defense will do the heavy lifting here. It ranks first in scoring defense, total defense and opponent red-zone scoring rate. They are third in passing defense, fourth in third-down conversion rate allowed, seventh in rushing defense and grade 25th or better in four out of five PFF defensive categories. Ohio State has had two shutouts, and they held Texas, Washington and Minnesota to fewer than 10 points. The 16 points Illinois scored on them is the most they have allowed all season.

The Boilermakers aren't 'Wisconsin-level' inept on offense, but the slightly above-average passing offense (66th, 234.1 yards per game coupled with a slightly below-average rushing offense (86th, 141.2 yards per game) has added up to the 107th scoring offense. Their team total for this weekend’s game against the Buckeyes is 7.5. Purdue also lost leading rusher Devin Mockobee for the rest of the season a few weeks ago against Rutgers and is still adjusting to life without him.

Purdue is 2-7, dealing with injuries, and is no longer bowl eligible. They are in the hardest part of their schedule, with Ohio State, Washington and Indiana as their last three opponents. The worry is that the Buckeyes can put this whole total up themselves if Julian Sayin and Jeremiah Smith get rolling downhill, but the slow pace they play with (126th in FBS) hasn't left them time to do that to anyone except Grambling State this year.

The Buckeyes have played in three games against FBS opponents favored by 25+ points -two went under, and one went over. The Buckeyes’ slow pace and the struggling Purdue offense should keep this one low scoring and the side a bigger sweat than the total.

Pick: Under 49.5 Points

College Football Leans for Week 11

No. 16 Vanderbilt vs. Auburn - Vanderbilt -6

The line has dropped below a touchdown. While Auburn could get the bounce after firing Hugh Freeze, the offense is still being run through Ashton Daniels. Vanderbilt just had a rough loss to Texas, but is still trying to hunt down a playoff spot. Take Vandy on the bounce back.

No. 14 Virginia vs. Wake Forest - Virginia -6.5

The difference in this game is going to be the quarterbacks performing under pressure. The Deamon Deacons have a strong defense, but Chandler Morris has been great against pressure; he’s 25th in passing grade and has only three turnover-worthy plays in 97 dropbacks. Wake Forest quarterback Robby Ashford is 153rd out of 165 qualifying quarterbacks in passing grade under pressure. Virginia ranks 27th in sacks per game this season.