Oh, what might have been! Army's 24-10 loss at Cincinnati saw them fail to cover the spread by a single point, thus costing us a payout at +574 odds on one of our Week 4 College Football parlays. With Mississippi State not only covering but winning outright, and Virginia Tech routing North Carolina State at home, only the Black Knights let us down. To say we were so close is almost an understatement. As bettors, we must turn the page and move forward. As always, there are plenty of options to choose from as we build our Week 5 College Football parlays.
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Betting College Football Through Parlays
Parlays are a fun way to incorporate several games from a massive College Football slate into your betting endeavors. I have put together a pair of three-team parlay bets that I like for the Week 5 slate. This week's parlays feature two different strategies. One utilizes a pair of plus-money underdogs to boost the odds while the other simply combines three of my favorite ATS picks on the board.
As is the case with these parlay bets every week, feel free to add, subtract, mix, and match from the picks I have outlined below to meet your desired level of risk and reward. Any and all of this week's picks make for fine individual wagers as well.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook
Week 5 College Football Parlay #1
Our first parlay for this week combines a pair of moneyline underdogs, who I believe are very much alive come Saturday, with Mississippi State on the point spread once again. This time, however, the Bulldogs are huge favorites. Together, the picks result in a parlay with hefty payout odds of +820.
Baylor at West Virginia (+125)
After dealing with COVID-19-related cancellations and postponements, Baylor was finally able to begin its 2020 season last week. They trounced Kansas handily and now head to Morgantown for a matchup against a much-improved West Virginia team. The spread currently sits at an even field goal, making that a terrific play for Mountaineers backers in this spot. With that said, I'm confident that WVU will do more than just cover the three points on Saturday.
The key for the Mountaineers will be the offensive line. Baylor's defense doesn't figure to be what it was a season ago, given the turnover, but the Bears dominated the line of scrimmage against Kansas last week. If quarterback Jarret Doege is afforded time to throw, West Virginia should be able to take advantage of positive matchups down the field. If the Mountaineers can do this as well as hold up better in their defense against the run, this feels like a tremendous spot for an outright win at home.
Texas Tech (+114) at Kansas State
Ah, the old letdown spot. Kansas State shocked the College Football world last week when they took down third-ranked Oklahoma on the road. This just two weeks after they shocked us all by losing outright at home to Arkansas State. The Wildcats, like the entire Big 12 Conference, have been unpredictable, to say the least. Coming off such a huge win, they are ripe for another upset loss, this one courtesy of a much shorter underdog in Texas Tech.
The Red Raiders should come into this game highly motivated after letting a top-10 upset opportunity of their own slip through the cracks against Texas last week. Alan Bowman outdueled Sam Ehlinger for the majority of last week's game. Add in the rushing threat of SaRodorick Thompson and Texas Tech should have no trouble scoring points. If Bowman can avoid throwing costly interceptions, I don't see Skylar Thompson and the K-State offense doing enough on offense to keep pace. Tech is only catching 2.5 on the point spread. A line staying below a field goal suggests that this game is very much up for grabs.
Arkansas at Mississippi State (-18)
It's safe to say Mike Leach and his Air Raid offense couldn't have had a much better SEC debut than last week's upset win over 6th-ranked LSU. Mississippi State broke the SEC single-game passing yards record in the process. With transfer QB K.J. Costello at the controls, the sky's the limit for this offense. If the Bulldogs were successful against LSU, certainly they should be able to score in this matchup with Arkansas.
With a shootout seeming likely both given the personnel and the over/under line of 69 total points, it will be up to Feleipe Franks and the Arkansas offense to keep pace. While there is talent for the Razorbacks on the offensive side of the ball, it doesn't figure to be enough. Unless Franks pulls some magic out of his hat, Mississippi State will roll. Laying 18 isn't as promising a number as the opening line of 16, but I'm still comfortable doing so in what could very well be a three-touchdown game.
Week 5 College Football Parlay #2
Our second parlay for Week 5 features three of my best ATS picks of the slate. Parlayed together, they afford payout odds of +630.
Western Kentucky (-7) at Middle Tennessee
After getting beaten badly in their first two games of the season, Middle Tennessee came much closer last Friday night against UTSA. The winless Blue Raiders are catching a touchdown at home against Western Kentucky, a line that has actually been bet down after opening at 8. After being upset by Liberty two weeks ago, the Hilltoppers are also looking for their first win of the season. I am confident that the road favorites will pick it up easily in this edition of the 100 Miles of Hate rivalry.
This is the first line to move against WKU all season after they drew the favor of the sharps in their first two matchups against Louisville and Liberty. Veteran quarterback Tyrrell Pigrome, who transferred in from Maryland, should have no trouble orchestrating the offense against an MTSU defense that has surrendered 37-plus points in each of its first three games. The Hilltoppers have to feel like they let one get away two weeks ago against Liberty. They were the better team on paper for that game and certainly are once again this week. Add in an extra week of rest in their favor and Western Kentucky should win easily.
Southern Mississippi at North Texas (-1.5)
Southern Mississippi is coming off a 66-24 blowout loss at the hands of Tulane in which they were outgained on the ground 430-70. While those aren't pretty numbers, to say the least, it is worth noting that the Golden Eagles did lead 14-0 at one point. North Texas is coming off an unplanned bye week after positive COVID-19 tests led to the cancellation of last week's game. The extra rest along with home-field advantage should serve the Mean Green well in this matchup.
The start of the season has been far from smooth for the Golden Eagles. Southern Miss has done everything from blow multi-score leads in back-to-back games to see their head coach step down after the first game. While the North Texas defense got lit up in their last game against SMU, it's very hard to imagine the talented Mean Green offense failing to outscore USM. If wearing down the Golden Eagles defensive front is a key to victory, the Mean Green RB tandem of DeAndre Torrey and Oscar Adaway III are more than capable. The fact that the line on this game opened as USM -1 further supports the theory that North Texas is the correct play.
Navy at Air Force (+6.5)
The first matchup of the Commander in Chief's Trophy series is also the first matchup of Air Force's 2020 season. With the Mountain West Conference among those who delayed the start of football, the Falcons have yet to play while Navy has gone 1-1 in their first two games. The Midshipmen had to pull off a miraculous second-half rally to earn their win over Tulane two weeks ago, and I'm just not convinced this team is nearly as talented as Navy teams in recent history.
The line movement on this game has been drastic. Air Force opened as slim 1-point favorites, and the market has bet the game all the way up to Navy being favored by as many as a full 7 at some books. At DraftKings Sportsbook, the 6.5-point line is heavily juiced to the Navy side which suggests that waiting to bet this game could lead to the full touchdown spread here as well. Air Force should have advantages along both the offensive and defensive lines. There may be some rust in the first game, but I like the Falcons to at least play Navy close with a real chance at earning an outright home win.
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Henry John is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Henry, check out his archive and follow him @HankTimeSports.