New Mexico State and Sam Houston meet on Wednesday in a Conference USA clash. Neither offense has performed well lately. I explain why I don't expect that to change. Here are the best college football picks & predictions for New Mexico State vs. Sam Houston.
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Wednesday’s Best College Football Picks & Predictions (Week 8)
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
New Mexico State Aggies at Sam Houston Bearkats
Under 44.5 Points (-115)
Offensively, Sam Houston doesn't do anything well. The 1-5 Bearkats haven't scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks, and they're averaging the fewest points per game in Conference USA (19.5). In the conference, Sam Houston also ranks ninth out of 10 teams in yards per game, yards per play and rushing yards per game.
New Mexico State averages 23.7 points per game, the third-most in Conference USA, but the Aggies scored only three points against Florida International last week. After that game, New Mexico State has legitimate quarterback concerns.
All signs point to Adam Damante starting after he took over for Trey Hedden. But Damante has completed fewer than 58% of his passes in his last two appearances, with just one touchdown and two interceptions. If Hedden does see action, I don't expect much, as he was just 2-for-8 for 19 yards and an interception against Florida International.
New Mexico State Over 129.5 Rushing Yards (-114)
While New Mexico State's quarterbacks have played poorly, I'm backing the New Mexico State rushing attack more because of James Jones’s performance this season. Jones has rushed for 599 yards and is averaging 6.5 yards per carry. He's rushed for at least 78 yards in all but one game, and he's topped 100 yards three times. Even when New Mexico State's offense struggled against Florida International, he ran for 89 yards and averaged 5.9 yards per carry.
TJ Washington Jr. has also been effective for New Mexico State. His season high is only 44 yards, but he's rushed for at least 24 yards in five straight games and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry this season.
Sam Houston's rush defense ranks last in Conference USA, allowing 200.3 yards per game. The unit also allows 5.1 yards per carry, ranking eighth in the conference.
First Quarter Under 9.5 Points (+100)
Neither New Mexico State nor Sam Houston has posted more than nine points in either of their last two games. And given how poorly both teams have played offensively, I expect the same here.
This season, Sam Houston is averaging just 2.8 points in the first quarter. Meanwhile, New Mexico State has been even worse, averaging just 1.2 first-quarter points. That ranks 132nd out of 138 teams.
I'm shocked the over is favored here. This may be a trap, but at +100, I'll back the under as a low-risk, high-reward play.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.