College Football Picks & Predictions: Friday (Week 1)

We’ve got an eight-game slate that kicks off on Friday night for Week 1 of the 2026 college football season. There are three ranked programs playing tonight, including No. 7 Miami (FL) vs. Stanford, No. 10 Oklahoma hosting UTEP, and No. 14 USC against Fresno State.

I’ve found three of my favorite best bets to place on Friday’s college football betting board. Each play is worth 1 unit of your bankroll.

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College Football Picks & Predictions Week 1: Friday Best Bets 

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Toledo vs. Michigan State 

We’re starting in the Midwest with a matchup between the Toledo Rockets and Michigan State Spartans. Toledo is a perennial contender in the MAC, while the Spartans have been floundering in the bottom of the Big Ten for a few years.

It’s a new era in Michigan State with head coach Pat Fitzgerald taking over for Jonathan Smith. Fitzgerald, who formerly led the Northwestern Wildcats for nearly 2 decades, will likely lean on his run-centric game plan and smothering defense.

The Rockets reloaded both sides of their offense and defense heading into 2026. It’s also a new era with first-year head coach Mike Jacobs replacing Jason Candle.

Only 30 percent of public bettors are siding with Toledo +10 tonight. Let’s fade the public and take 10 points with the Rockets, who have covered the spread in eight straight games as an underdog against unranked teams.

Pick: Toledo +10 (-112)

Miami FL (7) vs. Stanford

It’s still weird getting used to Stanford and Miami being an ACC matchup. The Hurricanes, who nearly won the National Championship under head coach Mario Cristobal last season, head out West to play a revamped Cardinal team.

Stanford has their hands full with a Miami offense that retained its power RB Mark Fletcher Jr. Yes, there’s no Carson Beck under center, replaced by Duke transfer QB Darian Mensah.

The Hurricanes ranked fifth in scoring defense in 2025 (14.8), and Stanford has turned a new leaf with QB Davis Warren in the post-Frank Reich era. Expect minimal offensive production from the Cardinal, who face a smothering Hurricanes defense largely intact from 2025.

Laying -24.5 with the Hurricanes is too much, especially on the road with a new signal-caller. However, I’m confident in Miami’s run-centric game plan to grind the clock, while Stanford winds up without much to show on offense.

I’m taking Under 48.5 as my best bet in tonight’s game between Miami and Stanford.

Pick: Under 48.5 (-120)

San Jose State vs. Eastern Michigan

San Jose State and Eastern Michigan both have a game under their belt heading into this Week 1 matchup. Oddsmakers have this line set tight at -3 in favor of Eastern Michigan, who plays this home game with a high total of 56.5.

San Jose State fell into a huge deficit early against USC before storming back to cover against its backups. The Eagles covered at home as a -9.5 point favorite against newly minted FBS program, Sacramento State, in Week 0.

The Spartans have undoubtedly had a bigger test compared to Eastern Michigan. However, most of those points came against backups, which won’t be the case on Friday night.

In 2025, Eastern Michigan struggled, finishing outside the top-90 in scoring offense and defense. San Jose State was even worse, sliding outside the top110 under head coach Ken Niumatalolo in these metrics. Both coaching staffs have remained in place for 2026.

Public money is more split in this game on sides. 51 percent are taking Eastern Michigan’s moneyline, while 53 percent of bettors are on San Jose State +3.

I’m going to invest in Eastern Michigan as a marginal home favorite and bet on the Eagles to win outright on the moneyline at -148 odds.

Pick: Eastern Michigan Moneyline (-148)