Week 4 of the 2026 college football season featured some incredible performances. Florida running back Jadan Baugh totaled 154 yards and three touchdowns in a 52-28 win against Ole Miss. LSU wide receiver Jackson Harris tallied 163 yards and two touchdowns on six receptions in the Tigers’ 35-6 thumping of Texas A&M. The focus now shifts to a Week 5 slate packed with intriguing storylines and ranked programs in action. Here's a look at three of my favorite college football picks for Saturday's contests.
- More NCAAF Betting Advice
- Expert Game Picks for College Football
- Top Bettor Picks for College Football
- NCAAF Betting Strategy
Get instant alerts when a line reaches your target via the BettingPros App >>
Saturday’s Best College Football Picks (Week 5)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide at No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs
Two unbeaten SEC squads clash at Davis Wade Stadium on Saturday afternoon. Alabama comes to town fresh off a dominant 49-18 win over South Carolina in Week 4.
Quarterback Keelon Russell put together his best performance yet, completing 21 of his 27 passes for 365 yards and four touchdowns. Meanwhile, Mississippi State outlasted Missouri 31-24 to start 4-0 for the second straight year. Running back Fluff Bothwell paced the offense with 122 rushing yards and one touchdown on 25 carries.
These offenses are not afraid to get into a shootout. The Crimson Tide have averaged the third-most points per game (48) and converted every trip to the red zone into points. Wide receiver Ryan Coleman-Williams has logged a stellar 19.6 yards per catch for Alabama. The Bulldogs have averaged the eighth-most points per game (43) and the third-most yards per game (533.3). Quarterback Kamario Taylor has fueled national Heisman Trophy hype by racking up 1,192 yards and 14 touchdowns through the air.
As a result, expect this contest to be decided with a costly turnover or late defensive stop. Alabama has been hounding opposing offenses, posting nine takeaways and conceding fewer than 100 rushing yards per game. Mississippi State’s secondary has struggled, checking in 97th in opponent passing yards per game (249).
Trust Russell to take control in the second half as the Crimson Tide pull away. Overall, the Bulldogs have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their previous 14 contests as home underdogs.
Pick: Alabama -5.5 (-110)
No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes at No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes
Talk about a thrilling victory. Iowa quarterback Hank Brown connected with wide receiver Reece Vander Zee for a 16-yard touchdown on the final play to beat Michigan 20-19 in Week 4.
The Hawkeyes have recorded win margins of 1, 3, 40 and 55 points across four contests. Ohio State flexed its muscles by crushing Illinois 42-19 in Week 4. Wide receiver Jeremiah Smith dazzled with 217 yards and four touchdowns on 12 catches. The junior has become the Heisman Trophy favorite at +260 odds on DraftKings Sportsbook.
This is a situation where an immovable object meets an unstoppable force. The Buckeyes’ offense has been excellent this season. It ranks as a top-five unit in points per game (45) and yards per game (522). Quarterback Julian Sayin is averaging 15.1 yards per completion.
The Hawkeyes’ defense has been just as impressive. It ranks as a top-12 unit in opponent points per game (10.7) and opponent yards per game (268). Junior linebacker Cam Buffington has guided the defense with 38 total tackles.
As a result, I’ll avoid those aspects of this Big Ten matchup by focusing on Iowa’s team total. The Hawkeyes have scored at least 15 points in all four games in 2026, after achieving the feat in 11 out of 12 regular season contests in 2025.
Ohio State has allowed at least 15 points in both of its battles with Power Four foes this campaign (Texas and Illinois). It’s worth pointing out that Iowa has also reached the 15-point mark in six of its past nine showdowns with Ohio State. Trust the trends at Kinnick Stadium.
Pick: Iowa Team Total Over 14.5 Points (-125)
No. 8 Florida Gators at No. 25 Missouri Tigers
Let’s switch gears back to the SEC for another top-25 duel. Florida now boasts a top-10 ranking thanks to its 52-28 pounding of Ole Miss in Week 4. Running back Jadan Baugh shined with 154 total yards and three touchdowns. The junior is second in the nation with 600 rushing yards.
Missouri fell short in a 31-24 road loss to Mississippi State in Week 4, as its Hail Mary attempt was knocked down with zeroes on the clock. Daeden Hopkins made a name for himself by recording 3.5 sacks.
The Gators have earned the status of favorite. However, the Tigers have an avenue to pulling off an upset, and it comes on the ground. Missouri’s defensive line has thwarted rushing attacks. It has surrendered only 104 rushing yards per game and 2.77 yards per carry.
Those are both top-25 marks in college football. Limiting Jadan Baugh and Duke Clark would force Florida into uncomfortable second- and third-down situations. That is crucial considering quick scoring drives from Florida are what destroyed Ole Miss’ defense.
While I like the Tigers to cover the full game spread (+4.5), I lean toward the Gators grabbing an early lead as my best bet. After all, Florida has covered the first-quarter spread in nine of their last 12 contests. It has scored a first-quarter touchdown in every game this year.
Missouri trailed Troy 10-0 at the end of the first quarter in Week 3 and trailed Mississippi State 14-0 at the end of the first quarter in Week 4. Bank on Florida head coach Jon Sumrall firing up his players this weekend.
Pick: Florida -0.5 First-Quarter Spread (+110)
