Tonight, the Dream and Valkyries will look to advance to the WNBA semi-finals. Below, I explain why Angel Reese should have another solid night on the boards against the Mystics. Then, I highlight why Cecilia Zandalasini's incredible Game 1 performance won't be replicated. And finally, I discuss Jessica Shepard's struggles against the Valkyries this season. Here are the best WNBA player props for Wednesday, September 30th.
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Wednesday’s Best WNBA Player Prop Bets
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Angel Reese 14+ Rebounds (+132)
Angel Reese grabbed 12 rebounds in Game 1, and she's now pulled down 12 or fewer boards in six consecutive games. Yet, I still like this matchup for her.
Reese has put up great rebounding numbers against the Mystics all season. She has at least 12 rebounds in all four of her games against them, grabbing at least 16 in two of those contests. These performances have come despite the Mystics allowing the fewest rebounds per game this year.
Another thing to love about this prop is that Reese has one of the highest rebounding floors in the league. She has grabbed at least 10 rebounds in 18 of her last 19 games, and the only time she failed to reach that threshold, she played just 17 minutes. She hasn't played more than 20 minutes and grabbed fewer than 10 rebounds since June 27th.
Cecilia Zandalasini Under 8.5 Points (-134)
Cecilia Zandalasini dropped 22 points on Sunday, her second-highest-scoring game of the season. However, I am fully fading her tonight.
In just 16 minutes, she went 7-of-11 from the field, including 4-of-5 from three-point range. This is a player who averaged just eight field-goal attempts and 1.3 made three-pointers per game during the regular season. Since July 4th, she scored 10+ points in just seven of her 22 games. She averaged only 8.6 points per game during the regular season, never scoring more than five against the Wings in three attempts.
The Valkyries made 18 of their 36 threes on Sunday, but nothing about the Wings' defense suggests they'll replicate that success. The Wings ranked fifth in opponent three-point rate during the regular season. And considering 42% of Zandalasini's makes were from beyond the arc, she's going to be most affected by the return to reality for the Valkyries tonight.
Jessica Shepard Under 10.5 Points (-108)
Jessica Shepard couldn't buy a bucket in Game 1, shooting 0-of-7 from the floor in 24 minutes. She finished with zero points, ending a streak of eight consecutive games scoring in double figures.
Considering she averaged 14.5 points per game during the regular season, I'm not surprised that Shepard is heavily favored to score at least 11 in this game. However, the Valkyries have done an amazing job shutting her down this season. Shepard has now been held to six or fewer points in three of her four games against the Valkyries. And even her season-high was just 14, still below her season average.
One of the biggest issues for Shepard is that she never attempts three-pointers. She went just 1-of-11 during the regular season. Without three-pointers to score quickly, Shepard is relegated to finding space against the league's top-ranked shooting defense. It hasn't worked so far, and it won't work again tonight.
Phil Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Phil, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.