The Major League Baseball playoffs began less than 24 hours ago, and four teams enter Wednesday on the brink of elimination. The marathon is turning back into a sprint. Desperation will be in the air, which could lead to unusual playing-time situations. I am looking to take advantage of that in the player prop markets. Here are three of my favorite MLB player props for Wednesday, September 30.
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Wednesday’s Best MLB Player Props & Bets
(All bets are one unit, unless otherwise stated)
Matt Olson Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBI (+110 at TheScoreBet)
For my first MLB player prop for Wednesday, I am going with Matt Olson of the Atlanta Braves to register at least two total hits, runs, and runs batted in against Cristopher Sanchez and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in all of baseball for the past couple of years. However, he has struggled to contain Atlanta's bats throughout his career. Braves hitters have combined to hit .297 in 147 plate appearances against the southpaw. Despite the platoon disadvantage, Olson has also had success against Sanchez.
Olson is 6-for-23 with two doubles and two home runs against Sanchez. The lefty has only struck out Olson five times, which is lower than either player's normal rate when facing an opponent of the same handedness. Home and road splits also seem to favor the Braves' first baseman.
Olson is hitting .297 with a five percent walk rate when facing left-handed pitchers at home this season. On the flip side, hitters are batting .288 against Sanchez on the road, compared to a .230 mark at Citizens Bank Park.
If you want more bang for your buck, consider Olson to record at least two total bases. However, given the success that other hitters in Atlanta's lineup have had against Sanchez, I am opting for the HRRBI route. We are still getting that at plus-money, and I like Olson to get our Wednesday off to a profitable start.
Nick Sogard 1+ Base Hits (-115 at FanDuel)
Next, I am betting on Nick Sogard to record at least one base hit on Wednesday. There are a couple of reasons I like this pick.
Sogard sees Yankees starter Max Fried very well. In their previous encounters, Sogard is 4-for-6 with a home run against the left-hander. Fried has yet to induce a single swinging strike against Sogard in those six plate appearances. It should come as no surprise then that Sogard profiles well against Fried's arsenal.
Sogard is 19-for-53 this season against left-handers who throw the six pitches Fried uses. He has very low walk and strikeout rates, so Sogard should be able to put the ball in play, which increases his chances of getting on base.
I also expect Sogard to face Fried as many as three times because I think the utilityman is very likely to be Boston's leadoff hitter on Wednesday. In addition to Sogard's success versus Fried, Roman Anthony left Tuesday's contest after seemingly aggravating his wrist injury again. Sogard and Jahmai Jones are the top candidates to lead off for the Red Sox on Wednesday.
Because of Anthony's injury, Boston has little chance of pulling Sogard out of this game for a pinch hitter. If Jarren Duran starts, the Red Sox will have no left-handed bats off the bench to threaten Sogard. If Duran sits, he is much more likely to replace Jones later in the game than Sogard.
Given a full slate of at-bats against a pitcher he has hit well, I like Nick Sogard to get at least one base hit on Wednesday.
Kevin Gausman Under 14.5 Pitching Outs (-120 at Fanatics)
My final MLB player prop for Wednesday is for Chicago Cubs starter Kevin Gausman to complete fewer than five innings. This is the type of bet that you would very rarely make in the regular season, but these circumstances may warrant a quick hook for Gausman.
The San Diego Padres punched the Cubs in the mouth on Tuesday night. Fernando Tatis Jr. hit the first pitch he saw for a leadoff home run. Manny Machado followed with a homer three pitches later and the rout was on. Chicago cannot afford to fall behind similarly on Wednesday with their season on the line.
Chicago will have all hands on deck for this game, including left-handed starters Shota Imanaga and David Peterson. It would not shock me if the Cubs pull Gausman when San Diego's left-handed hitters come up for their second plate appearances. The irony is that Gausman has historically fared much better against Padres lefties than their regular right-handed hitters.
Still, the Cubs have no real ties to Gausman despite trading for the veteran right-hander over the summer. This isn’t a situation where they need to worry about healing a bruised ego down the road after a quick hook. Plus, Gausman has been around the block long enough to understand the situation.
I think he will give them all he's got, with the expectation that he may not throw his normal allotment of pitches or innings. Because of that, I am betting on Kevin Gausman to finish the night with fewer than 14.5 outs recorded.
