No one is in or out of the College Football Playoff (CFP) picture just yet. However, betting interest could increase for several teams while falling for others based on how Week 1 played out. Is it too soon to judge whether a team has playoff potential? Of course, but where’s the fun in being level-headed?
Then again, it isn’t necessarily overreacting to bet on a team’s CFP odds after Week 1. Bettors may look at a team’s odds and think they have value depending on how well they played in Week 1.
Let’s take a look at the College Football Playoff odds and National Championship odds for some of the winners and losers from Week 1.
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College Football Playoff & National Championship Odds: Week 1 Winners
Our focus will not be on the big dogs like Georgia and Texas, teams already viewed as playoff and championship contenders. These teams may have been on the outskirts of playoff/championship conversations. But they took a step forward after recording wins in Week 1.
Teams will be listed with their CFP odds and with their National Championship odds in parenthesis/
(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)
USC +320 (+6000)
After losing Caleb Williams and several skill position players to the NFL, there was good reason to doubt the Trojans. Lincoln Riley’s offense looked great against LSU, with Miller Moss behind center. While giving up 300+ yards in the passing game is not good, the defense looked better than last season’s dreadful unit.
They’ll face their next test in a few weeks when they travel to Michigan to face the defending champions.
Miami -120 (+2500)
The Hurricanes have fielded some solid defenses in recent years, but their offenses have not been able to step up when needed. If Week 1’s dismantling of Florida is any indication, that may not be the case this year. New quarterback Cam Ward carved up the Seminoles’ defense for 385 yards and three touchdowns (one interception).
With the running game tacking on 144 yards, Miami had over 500 yards of offense. However, with Florida State’s fall from grace, their only path into the playoffs may be winning an ACC championship.
Arizona +750 (+20000)
Destroying New Mexico isn’t exactly impressive. But if you watched Noah Fifita decimate that offense for 422 yards and four touchdowns, of which 304 yards and three touchdowns went to Tetairoa McMillan, you’re looking forward to upcoming games against Kansas State (Sept. 13) and Utah (Sept. 28).
College Football Playoff & National Championship Odds: Week 1 Losers
A team can lose in Week 1 and still make the playoffs. There is no room for error, but if a team can run the table, they may still have a fighting chance. However, the following teams are ones, based on what we saw in Week 1, that will probably not climb out of the hole they are now in.
Clemson +220 (+5500)
Dabo Swinney’s team was one people had high hopes for heading into the season. In the first half vs. Georgia, things looked promising. But then the second half played out. Georgia is an incredible team, but the defense got pushed around in the second half, and the offense couldn’t do anything right.
With how the ACC looks one week into the season, the Tigers must win out and get help to make the playoffs. They host Appalachian State University next week.
Texas A&M +350 (+5500)
Being in the SEC gives the Aggies more credit than they deserve. They play solid defense, but the offense was lacking under Jimbo Fisher. It didn’t look too promising one week into Mike Elko’s tenure. But if they can right the ship in the SEC, they are not out of the hunt yet. They have a “get-right” game next week vs. the McNeese Cowboys.
Florida State +5000 (+60000)
(*Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook)
Losing one game can be forgiven, but two? If the Seminoles had an SEC-style schedule - maybe. But even if they did, the team does not look like one that will snap back. They will get a week off before hosting Memphis in Week 3.
