College Football Power Rankings: CFP Semifinal (2026)

We’re down to the final four teams in the 2026 College Football Playoff. The Semifinal features a pair of exciting matchups on Thursday and Friday night, kicking off with an unlikely game between the Miami Hurricanes and Ole Miss Rebels at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. On Friday night, it’s a high-stakes rematch between the No. 1-ranked Indiana Hoosiers and the Oregon Ducks at the Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl.

Oddsmakers have Miami valued as a -164 betting favorite against the red-hot Ole Miss offense. The point total is set to 51.5. Indiana has moved down to a -3.5-point favorite against Oregon with a 46.5-point total.

Here are my final college football power rankings ahead of the 2026 College Football Playoff Semifinal. Follow me on X at Matt_MacKay_ for more college football betting analysis and free picks.

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College Football Power Rankings: College Football Playoff Semifinal

Indiana	1
Ole Miss	2
Oregon	3
Miami (FL)	4

1. Indiana

Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback, Fernando Mendoza, will prepare to face a stout Oregon defense that just shut out a top-10 Texas Tech offense in the Quarterfinal. Mendoza has a ton of weapons to turn to in the Hoosiers’ offense, while head coach Curt Cignetti has led Indiana to a 14-0 record, including the nation’s third-ranked scoring offense and second-ranked scoring defense.

The Hoosiers have been the only team in two years of the expanded 12-team College Football Playoff format to record a win after a First Round bye. Indiana dominated Alabama, throttling the Crimson Tide 38-3 in the Rose Bowl.

There are playmakers all over the offense and defense. Mendoza’s quality decision-making and toughness allow him to extend plays and evade pressure, often leading to explosive plays downfield.

Indiana’s defense is a comforting unit for Mendoza. The Hoosiers have not allowed more than 10 points in four straight games, including 13 combined points between Ohio State and Alabama. Cignetti and Mendoza have their sights set on bringing a National Championship back to Bloomington for the first time in program history.

2. Ole Miss

Trinidad Chambliss rose to the occasion and rallied Ole Miss on a clutch comeback win over Georgia in the Quarterfinal. The Rebels’ quarterback has thrown for over 300 yards in four of his past five starts and has now gone three straight games without throwing an interception.

Without former head coach Lane Kiffin, few gave Ole Miss a chance to make a run in the College Football Playoff. Few teams have been able to contain the Rebels’ offense this season, as only Georgia managed to beat Ole Miss 43-35 back in mid-October.

Defensively, Ole Miss has been sound against the pass. The Rebels have held seven straight opponents under a 58 percent completion rate, while forcing six turnovers in their last four matchups.

Now, Ole Miss faces arguably the best defense remaining in the College Football Playoff. Miami is a tough task, but they are more talented in terms of containing the run, meaning Chambliss should still be able to operate within the pocket. RB Kewan Lacy has been a stud as the Rebels’ workhorse running back, so he may be able to find some rushing lanes against the Hurricanes’ smothering defense.

Regardless of a win or loss in the Semifinal, Ole Miss has defied odds and expectations by going 2-0 in the College Football Playoff. Their passing attack is the best in the field right now, so don’t rule out the Rebels ending a six-decade National Championship drought.

3. Oregon

Oregon head coach Dan Lanning has been able to revamp the Ducks’ offense this season. Despite massive changes this past offseason, QB Dante Moore has developed into a talented passer, while a strong rushing attack helps balance Oregon’s offense.

Defensively, Oregon ranks sixth in the country for points allowed per game. The Ducks shut out Texas Tech in the Quarterfinal after giving up 34 points to James Madison in the First Round. They held the Red Raiders to 2.6 YPC and 137 passing yards, forcing four turnovers to build momentum ahead of a rematch against Indiana.

To beat the Hoosiers, Oregon will need to cut down on its miscues. Moore has been turnover-prone, so if he can play a clean game, there’s a good chance that the Ducks avenge their only loss of the season against the Hoosiers in their upcoming Peach Bowl rematch.

Mendoza was the only Power 4 quarterback who finished with above a 60 percent completion rate. Oregon has an air-tight secondary, which will be needed to pull off the upset against Indiana.

Oregon prefers to lean on a run-centric offensive game plan, which will be difficult against Indiana’s run defense. Moore has thrown four interceptions in his last four starts, so he’ll need to be at the top of his game to advance the Ducks into the National Championship game.

4. Miami (FL)

Miami has suddenly captured momentum, beating Texas A&M and Ohio State to find itself in a Semifinal matchup against Ole Miss on Thursday night. QB Carson Beck was largely a game manager in the Quarterfinal against the Buckeyes, although he made some timely throws and runs to keep the Hurricanes’ offense ahead of schedule.

Miami’s rushing attack has been top-tier in the College Football Playoff. The Hurricanes have recorded at least 153 rushing yards in both wins, which is extremely impressive considering how they moved the football against Ohio State’s top-ranked run defense.

Beck has not thrown an interception in either playoff game. It’s been a narrow win margin in both victories, so Miami’s QB1 will need to play another clean game to avoid falling into a deficit against Ole Miss’ high-flying offense.

Defensively, head coach Mario Cristobal has built a lockdown unit. The Hurricanes’ defense has only allowed one rushing touchdown in its last three games, while limiting opponents to 2.8 YPC on average this season.

Miami has a +3 turnover differential in the College Football Playoff. The secondary has allowed explosive plays, giving up a 62 percent completion rate and 237 or more passing yards to Marcel Reed and Julian Sayin. Trinidad Chambliss could exploit this weakness, forcing Miami to play from behind in a negative game script.

The Hurricanes’ offense is the weakest in the remaining field. Miami wants to play bully ball and pound the rock, while forcing turnovers and bottling up opponents on the ground. This formula may not work against Ole Miss, which will disrupt their run-centric offensive gameplan, potentially leading to Beck regressing into a turnover machine.

Miami can make the National Championship, but it needs its defense to continue dominating at the line of scrimmage. Beck put up big numbers in the regular season, but he’s been held to two touchdowns and 241 combined passing yards in the College Football Playoff.

The Hurricanes’ Cinderella run may be coming to an end in the Fiesta Bowl against Ole Miss on Thursday night. However, if the defense continues to play at an elite level, there’s a chance for Miami to run the gauntlet and hoist the National Championship trophy.

Matthew MacKay is a featured writer for BettingPros and FantasyPros. For more from Matthew, check out his archive and follow him @Matt_MacKay_.