College Football PrizePicks Bowl Game Predictions: Monday (1/1)

This is one of my favorite articles because College Football's prop lines are softer than the NFL's.

During the regular season, we would look for matchups to correlate quarterbacks from the same contest and attack the game environment. Unfortunately, during Bowl season there are many player opt-outs and transfer portal submissions. This leaves us with inexperienced players and has us searching for consistency and certainty.

We will target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks.

Let's dive in.

College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games (Jan. 1)

Bowl Game Record: 10-4

This is one of my favorite articles because College Football's prop lines are softer than the NFL's.

We will target quarterbacks with a large sample size in optimal situations. The qualifying amount for each quarterback is a minimum of 125 dropbacks, which gives us a sample size of 162 quarterbacks.

Let's dive in.

College Football PrizePicks Bowl Games (Jan. 1)

Bowl Game Record: 10-4

Glossary

EPA/Pass Att: Expected points added per pass attempt
IsoPPP: Explosive plays
Passing Success Rate: 50% of yards needed on 1st down, 70% of yards needed on second down and 100% on third and fourth down
Behind LOS Depth: Passes behind the Line of Scrimmage
Short Passing Depth: Passes within 1-9 yards of depth
Med Passing Depth: Passes within 10-19 yards of depth
Deep Passing Depth: Passes 20+ yards of depth
Mickey Mouse Throw %: Combination of Behind the LOS attempts and Short attempts; The average attempt % is 55.8%
Big Dog Throw %: Combination of Medium attempts and Deep attempts; The average Big Dog attempts % is 37.6%

Michael Penix Jr (QB – Washington) Over 313.5 Passing Yards

26th in Big Dog Atts (43.7%)
133rd in Mickey Mouse Atts (49.5%)
65th in Medium Atts %
16th in Medium PFF Grade
9th in Medium QB Rating
13th in Deep Atts %
26th in Deep PFF Grade
56th in Deep QB Rating
Washington 3rd in PROE on Standard Downs (+17.2%)
Washington 6th in PROE on Passing Downs (+14.8%)
Texas 7th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
Texas 86th in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
Texas 95th in EPA/Pass Att on Medium Atts
Texas 75th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts
Texas 92nd in Def Pass IsoPPP

Michael Penix Jr. has arguably been the most important player to his team’s success along with Jalen Milroe at Alabama. Washington has one of the highest PROE profiles in all of college football. They will throw the ball regardless of the situation, and for good reason because their quarterback is elite. Texas’ secondary is extremely exploitable and Washington has the exact gameplan and personnel to do so. Texas will have to disrupt Penix’s rhythm otherwise, this will be a long evening. Penix will more than likely see 40+ passing attempts and should soar over this total.

Jalen Milroe (QB – Alabama) Over 237.5 Passing Yards and Rushing Yards

12th in Big Dog Atts (47.7%)
152nd in Mickey Mouse Atts (45.6%)
54th in Medium Atts %
134th in Medium PFF Grade
99th in Medium QB Rating
9th in Deep Att %
2nd in Deep PFF Grade
5th in QB Rating
Alabama 110th in PROE on Standard Downs (-6.1%)
Alabama 115th in PROE on Passing Downs (-6.9%)
Michigan 10th in EPA/Pass Att on Mickey Mouse Atts
Michigan 2nd in EPA/Pass Att on Big Dog Atts
Michigan 64th in EPA/Pass Att on Deep Atts
Michigan 90th in Def Pass IsoPPP

Jalen Milroe has been a big play waiting to happen all year, whether with his feet or his arm. He has only been hamstrung by Tommy Rees, which has led Alabama to have a pretty rough PROE profile. Michigan has been considered the best defense but few have looked at the teams they have played. Michigan has only played two teams who ranked inside the Top 40 in explosiveness, UNLV and Bowling Green. They have played eight teams that ranked 90th or worse in explosiveness. Alabama ranks 14th in overall IsoPPP. Michigan has not faced a single quarterback who is in the same stratosphere athletically as Jalen Milroe. Michigan has faced one offense that ranks top 40 in Passing IsoPPP (explosiveness) and that was Nebraska. Alabama ranks 8th in Passing IsoPPP. This has all the makings of the Michigan vs TCU game last year and Milroe will soar over this total. Do not be surprised if you look up at halftime and Milroe has already eclipsed 200 plus yards and Alabama is exposing this Michigan defense.

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday:

Thanks for reading! If you are interested in more advanced statistics or have any questions about the process, you can follow me @goldendomer622 on Twitter. Good luck with your bets!