College Football Week 1 Early Picks & Predictions (2025)

Following a five-game slate during Week 0, the return of college football officially kicks off on Saturday, August 30. There are dozens of games to watch and enjoy, with a few marquee matchups set for Week 1, most notably, No. 1 Texas going on the road to face No. 3 Ohio State.

Last week, my College Football Week 0 Early Picks & Predictions finished a profitable 3-0. Follow me on X @Matt_MacKay to get updated college football betting analysis and insights, including free picks, during each week of the 2025 college football season.

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College Football Week 1 Picks & Early Line Movement

(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)

Texas (1) vs. Ohio State (3)

Arch Manning and the Texas Longhorns will look to avenge their College Football Playoff Semifinal loss against the defending champions on the road in Columbus on Saturday. Manning now gets full QB1 duties following Quinn Ewers departure to the NFL, leading to the Longhorns being ranked No. 1 in the AP polls.

Ohio State returns two of college football’s top talents, WR Jeremiah Smith and DB Caleb Downs. However, former Buckeyes OC Chip Kelly and DC Jim Knowles are no longer with the program, while freshman transfer, Julian Sayin, is set to make his first collegiate start in this massive Week 1 matchup.

The point spread favors Ohio State but the line has moved down from -2.5 to -1.5. Both teams fielded a top-three defense in points allowed per game in 2024. The Longhorns return most of their starters on that side of the line of scrimmage, which could pose problems for Sayin in newly appointed OC Brian Hartline’s offense.

Nerves will play a big role in this game. Points may be at a premium, especially with how well each defense played last season. While it’s tempting to take the points with Texas, Manning is playing in a hostile road environment with the full weight of the program on his shoulders.

The total has stayed neutral at 47.5 points. Let’s bet Under 47.5 total points between Texas and Ohio State in what could be a potential slugfest.

Pick: Under 47.5 (-108)

LSU (9) vs. Clemson (4)

Cade Klubnik returns to lead No. 4 Clemson back to an ACC title and a College Football Playoff appearance in 2025. The Tigers’ signal-caller had a highly productive campaign last year, recording 3,639 yards and 36 touchdowns, while throwing only six interceptions.

Head coach Dabo Swinney leads a veteran group, with a lot of offensive starters coming back after averaging 34.7 points per game in 2024, ranked 18th in the country. Swinney’s focus will undoubtedly be on defense, where Clemson was average against opponents, surrendering 23.4 points per game.

The narrative with LSU in Week 1 may continue with another difficult game on the road. Head coach Brian Kelly has a tendency to lose the first game of the season but he’ll have plenty of confidence in senior quarterback Garrett Nussmeier.

Nussmeier took full advantage of his first year as a starter, finishing with a 64.2 percent completion rate with over 4,000 passing yards and 29 touchdowns. Expect LSU to funnel targets to WR Zavion Thomas, while RB Caden Durham is set to handle the RB1 workload.

Defense was a sore point for LSU in 2024, just like their Week 1 opponent. It’s why oddsmakers have set the point total at 57.5 for this prime-time matchup in Death Valley.

No significant line movement has occurred up to this point. The point spread dipped briefly in favor of Clemson, moving from -3.5 to -4.0, before returning to its current -3.5 line.

We’re through a key number here at -3.5. LSU can lose by a field goal and still cover +3.5. Which Tigers team will emerge with a victory in Week 1?

I’m willing to back Nussmeier to keep the game tight to the final whistle, so let’s opt to go against the consensus pick of fading LSU and bet on them to cover as underdogs on the road against Clemson on Saturday night.

Pick: LSU +3.5 (-108)

Notre Dame (6) vs. Miami (FL) (10)

We’re being treated to a couple of matchups on Sunday during Week 1 of the 2025 college football season before the NFL returns on September 4. Week 1 concludes with an iconic rivalry game between No. 6 Notre Dame against No. 10 Miami (FL) in prime-time at Hard Rock Stadium.

The Hurricanes shelled out a huge NIL deal to land QB Carson Beck from Georgia this offseason. Cam Ward was a Heisman finalist within this offense last year, so Beck has big shoes to fill and high expectations stemming from his former team’s National Championship runs in 2022 and 2023.

Beck was turnover-prone in 2024, while dealing with several injuries that derailed his season. The Fighting Irish defense is a physical unit that kept its opponents in check last season, which led to their National Championship appearance against Ohio State.

Notre Dame head coach Marcus Freeman will likely continue feeding star RB Jeremiyah Love touches behind a stout offensive line. The Hurricanes’ defense was sub-par under head coach Mario Cristobal in 2024, ranked 69th in opponents points per game (25.3), which forced Ward into late-game heroics.

Miami beefed up its wide receiving corps to help Beck transition into his new regime. Meanwhile, Notre Dame lost QB Riley Leonard to the NFL and will now turn to redshirt freshman, CJ Carr.

Line movement has been neutral in the point spread and point total betting markets for this game. The Fighting Irish are 2.5-point road favorites, making Beck and the Hurricanes a home underdog. The point total is set to 49.5, which is tricky to invest in due to these defenses playing much differently in 2024.

Miami loaded up on defense as well, with five starters acquired through the transfer portal, mostly in the secondary. I’ll back Beck and the home underdog on the point spread and take +2.5 as the Hurricanes will face a one-dimensional offense with a revamped roster.

Pick: Miami (FL) +2.5 (-112)