College Football Week 11 Odds, Picks & Predictions (Saturday)

Gear up for another awesome weekend of college football action with BettingPros! We’ll have you covered with all of our top picks for the week along with our projected spreads and totals to help guide your college football bets. Below are our top picks and predictions for Saturday’s games.

Top College Football Odds & Picks: Saturday

Georgia vs. Ole Miss

While a road trip to Athens at night is certainly intimidating, this isn't a terrible matchup for Ole Miss. Last week against Missouri, Georgia yielded 4.44 yards per clip on the ground. And that was a week after letting Florida average 4.36 yards per run. This Georgia defense has lost a ton of talent to the NFL, and while this unit is still very good, it's not quite as elite as it's been the past two seasons. The Bulldogs rank just 45th in defensive rushing success rate, sets up well for a Rebels offense that's predicated on its strong ground game. On the flip side, Georgia's offense has performed quite well even without star tight end Brock Bowers, as QB Carson Beck has been slinging it downfield as of late. Beck and Georgia's passing game could thrive against a Rebels defense that's allowing 7.2 yards per pass attempt. While I don't fully trust Jaxson Dart in these massive spots, I do think the matchup sets up well for plenty of points. I'd lean Ole Miss with the spread, but feel more confident in the over.

Pick: Over 58.5

-Matt Barbato

Miami vs. Florida State

It's one of the biggest rivalries in the Sunshine State that's been mostly one-sided recently. The Seminoles are 9-4 against Miami since 2010 and have won back-to-back games. They come into today as the No. 4 in the CFB Playoff as they remain the only unbeaten team in the ACC. Jordan Travis has a nice streak of throwing a touchdown in 20 straight games and had a season-high 360 passing yards last week. This might be an excellent matchup for him, as the Hurricanes are 53rd in passing yards allowed per game. Miami had a heartbreaking loss against Georgia Tech, they stayed competitive for most of the game against North Carolina, but the offense game against NC State was just disastrous, especially Tyler Van Dyke, who, over the last two games, averaged 178 passing yards and has five interceptions. These games tend to be more physical, so you should side with the under.

Pick: Under 51.5

-John Supowitz

Utah vs. Washington

It’s hard to find two teams with profiles as opposite as Washington and Utah. The Huskies are firmly in the national title picture thanks to a high-flying passing game led by Michael Penix Jr. The Utes are miraculously 7-2 despite a ton of injuries and working in a completely inexperienced quarterback, Bryson Barnes, into the mix. Both teams had massive get-right wins the week prior, with Utah destroying Arizona State and Washington carving up a porous USC defense for a massive road win. This game offers a ton of variance with a spread of Washington -9.5. As much as I could see Washington's passing game and more key injuries overwhelming the Utes, I could also see Utah finding a way to ugly things up and find success on the ground against a Huskies defense that's allowing 4.38 yards per rush, even if top tailback Ja'Quinden Jackson can't go. So instead, I'll take the under. I want to see Washington put up another offensive outburst against a real, AKA non-Trojans defense. Meanwhile, I don't see Washington putting up a ton of points on the road with Barnes under center.

Pick: Under 51.5

-Matt Barbato

USC vs. Oregon

USC saw any hope they really had of a National Championship fall to the wayside last week with their loss to Washington. However, they’re still very much alive for the Pac-12 Championship. In order to reach that game, they’ll need to win against Oregon on Saturday. The Trojans have been elite offensively led by QB Caleb Williams. Last week we saw Williams and crew rip through Washington, but this Oregon defense is another story. The Ducks have been shutting down some really strong offenses this season. Their defense ranks 6th in the country in EPA and held Washington to nearly 100 yards below their yards per game average. If there is any defense on USC’s schedule that is capable of slowing them down, it’s Oregon. As far as USC’s defense, there isn’t much to talk about. They haven’t shown an ability to stop any offense with a pulse. The defense has allowed teams like Cal, Colorado and Arizona State to keep things close against the Trojans. Caleb Williams has put together an incredible career at USC and he won’t go out here without a fight, but I just don’t see how the USC defense keeps them in this game. I’m backing Oregon here big.

Pick: Oregon -14.5

-Ryan Rodeman

Texas vs. TCU

Longhorns’ quarterback Quinn Ewers is officially day-to-day which means he could return for this Saturday’s game against the Horned Frogs. Whether Ewers plays or not, the Longhorns’ offense should have no problem scoring in this game. Maalik Murphy has led the Longhorns to 33 or more points in each of his two starts. The Horned Frogs have given up 35 or more points in each of their last two games. On the season, they’re allowing 26.6 points per game and 156.3 rushing yards per game. Longhorns’ running back Jonathon Brooks should have a huge game once again, helping whoever is under center, move the ball up and down the field with ease.

Pick: Texas Over 32.5

-Phil Wood

West Virginia vs. Oklahoma

The Sooners have dropped back-to-back games after starting the season 7-0. Yet, unless the wheels have completely come off, they should get back to winning this week against the Mountaineers. Not only that, we think they win by at least two touchdowns and cover the spread. The Mountaineers have won two in a row by 13 or more. However, their competition hasn’t been the best with the wins coming over BYU and UCF. Meanwhile, the Sooners have lost on the road against two teams ranked in the top 20 in the country. The Mountaineers are only giving up 227.4 passing yards per game, but they have yet to face a challenge like the one presented by Dillon Gabriel this week. The 9th-ranked passing offense in football will take care of business, as the defense does enough to secure the ATS win.

Pick: Oklahoma -13

-Phil Wood

Tennessee vs. Missouri

The Tennessee Volunteers are coming off a 59-3 win against a non-conference opponent in UConn. However, they previously won three of their last four games against SEC competition. Two of those three games were only by one score. On the other hand, Missouri watched a two-game losing streak snap against Georgia. However, Missouri held its own against the nation's top team. The Tigers have been much more consistent offensively behind Brady Cook, who has 16 passing touchdowns and a QBR of 77.4. On the other hand, Tennessee doesn't have a great pass protection unit but has watched Joe Milton grow into a reliable quarterback, with 15 touchdowns and only four interceptions. Missouri's offense is more powerful, but Tennessee's secondary and pass rush is way better than Missouri's passing defense. However, I still like Missouri's defense to get enough stops. They'll pressure the quarterback more effectively. Take the Tigers at +1.

Pick: Missouri +1

-Jason Radowitz

Florida vs. LSU

After Jayden Daniels sustained a possible concussion in last week's game against Alabama, he had been in concussion protocol earlier this week. However, on Wednesday, he was announced back in practice. He's not confirmed as the starter, but it's more likely that he'll be playing for LSU this weekend. Daniels has earned 33 total touchdowns, with almost 2,800 yards passing and another 684 yards on the ground. He's a Heisman hopeful and playing extremely well. Florida has allowed under 200 passing yards but over 140 yards on the ground. LSU should have no problem putting up points. Meanwhile, LSU's defense has allowed over 28 points per game. The secondary is depleted, and the play calls on defense are questionable. With Graham Mertz limiting his interceptions to two on the season, the Gators figure to have some success on offense too. LSU has allowed nearly 225 yards in the air and another 172.89 yards on the ground per game. That won't cut it. Take the Over 63.5.

Pick: Over 63.5

-Jason Radowitz

Stanford vs. Oregon State

The Stanford Cardinal added a 10-7 win over Washington State after allowing at least 42 or more points in each of their previous four games. The defense stepped up against the Cougars but probably won't against Oregon State. D.J. Uiagalelei has added 2,014 yards passing with 18 touchdowns and four interceptions. Meanwhile, Damien Martinez has rushed for 878 yards and three touchdowns for Oregon State. They're averaging nearly 190 yards on the ground and another 240.88 yards in the air. Stanford's defense has been awful in coverage, and it'll show on Saturday. On the other hand, Oregon State's defense has allowed just above 200 yards in the air and under 105 yards on the ground per game. While the Beavers have missed a lot of tackles, the secondary is still elite. With the lead early, the Cardinal will have to throw a lot. They'll struggle to find success against Oregon State's secondary. Take the Beavers at -21.

Pick: Oregon State -21

-Jason Radowitz

Arizona State v. UCLA

Arizona State just took a 55-3 loss to Utah in its last game. The season is practically over for the Sun Devils. They've scored 17.78 points per game while allowing 29.67 points on defense. They've had little success on the ground and have tried four different quarterbacks this season. None of them have really looked good. With UCLA's defense holding teams to 16.33 points per game, don't expect much offense out of Arizona State. The UCLA secondary, pass rush, and run defense is elite in the Pac-12. Meanwhile, the Bruins don't have a reliable offense, either. It's better, averaging 28.56 points per game. But it's mainly the run game that has done the damage behind Carson Steele. Steele has rushed for 5.4 yards per game, with six touchdowns on 132 carries for 712 yards. If UCLA commits to the run early against Arizona State, they'll cover -18 at home.

Pick: UCLA -18

-Jason Radowitz

Texas Tech vs. Kansas

The only explanation for this number being this low is that oddsmakers are expecting the Jayhawks to be looking ahead to next week’s game against Kansas State. The Red Raiders barely beat TCU last week, after falling in back-to-back weeks against BYU and Kansas State. Meanwhile, the Jayhawks have won two in a row, defeating Iowa State and Oklahoma. Their only two losses this season are on the road against Oklahoma State and Texas. Jason Bean has this offense humming. They’ve scored at least 28 points in his last four games. The Jayhawks are also phenomenal at home, posting a 5-0 record and outscoring their opponents by 17.4 points per game. With all that in mind, we’re going to avoid overthinking this questionable line and pick the home team to cover.

Pick: Kansas -4

-Phil Wood

Oklahoma State vs. UCF

Oddsmakers have significantly overvalued the Knights throughout this season. Because of that, the Knights are just 3-6 against the spread, and they’ve only covered in one game against a Big 12 opponent. Yet, we’re still taking them at +3 in this game. The Cowboys have won five in a row after an ugly 2-2 start to the season. Last week, they defeated Oklahoma for what could be viewed as a season-defining win. And because of how big of a win it was, the Cowboys are on upset alert this week. This is a prime letdown spot for the Cowboys. The Knights have struggled against almost everyone this season, but they’ve also lost a lot of close games. They have the talent to stay with the Cowboys if Oklahoma State fails to come out sharp. Both of these teams gain a lot of yards, but they also give up a lot. If the Knights can get out to a two-score lead, the Cowboys won’t be able to make enough stops to mount a comeback.

Pick: UCF +3

-Phil Wood

Baylor vs. Kansas State

Kansas State is still in the hunt for the Big 12 championship, but they'll need to win out and get some help. Last week was one of the more competitive games they've played recently. Will Howard had the best performance of the year with a career-high 327 passing yards and the first time he's thrown for four touchdowns in two years. This will still be a team that depends on their defense, as they're 18th in points allowed and fourth in third down conversions allowed. It's been a tough season for Baylor as they come in with the third-worse record in the conference. The offense is dreadful, scoring the fewest points in the Big 12. They have been better offensively with Blake Shapen in the lineup, and he does have a passing touchdown in each game, but in just two of those six, he's had multiple touchdowns. When you have a defense allowing nearly 30 points per game, that's just not enough.

Pick: Kansas State -21

-John Supowitz

Michigan vs. Penn State

Michigan has run through its schedule with no resistance. They’ve managed to produce the #1 ranking in SP+, total EPA and point differential as well as a host of other statistics. Oddly enough, this game against Penn State will be the first time they’ve really been tested against a ranked opponent. Penn State has been a bit of a doppelgänger to Michigan this season. Both teams have elite defenses and solid offenses that have allowed them to win with ease. It’s difficult to really differentiate between these teams except at one position, the quarterback. Depending on your flavor, Michigan QB JJ McCarthy has been the best signal caller in the country. His 0.640 EPA per attempt is best in the nation by a fairly wide margin and his total EPA is in the same sphere at Michael Penix and Jayden Daniels. When pressured he has the wheels to make the defense pay. Last season he ran for 8.1 yards per attempt against this Nittany Lion defense and if the game script calls for it he won’t be afraid to make them pay. Penn State QB Drew Allar underwhelmed through the first seven games of the year, culminating in a 191 yards in 42 attempts performance against another elite defense in Ohio State. In the last game and a quarter against Maryland and Indiana, he has started to show an ability to throw the ball down the field so perhaps he’s found something, but the Michigan defense is a different animal. This won’t turn out like the 41-17 romping in Ann Arbor last year, but JJ McCarthy will be the difference and Michigan should be able to leave Happy Valley with a win and a cover.

Pick: Michigan -4

-Ryan Rodeman

Alabama vs. Kentucky

Alabama will make its first road trip in a month to Lexington on the heels of a convincing victory over LSU at home. The question is whether Alabama comes out flat after scoring two solid wins at home over rivals who beat them the year prior. On the flip side, this will be Kentucky's Super Bowl, and you know Mark Stoops will have his team motivated. The key to stopping the Alabama offense is preventing QB Jalen Milroe from making big plays. Milroe's accuracy remains an issue, but he's extremely efficient on deep passing plays and can escape the pocket for big gains with his legs. Kentucky primarily plays a zone defense that's predicated on preventing those deep throws, and have done a decent job in containing quarterback runs. In a similar matchup against Tennessee, the Wildcats held mobile QB Joe Milton to just 26 yards on 10 carries. The issue is I don't see Kentucky moving the ball a ton against another dominant Alabama defense. The Wildcats passing game has been erratic all season, while the ground game has lived and died with explosive runs by Ray Davis. I'd lean with the home underdog, but have a stronger feeling about the under in what could be a true slugfest.

Pick: Under 47

-Matt Barbato

Tulsa vs. Tulane

Tulane is in a three-way tie with SMU and UTSA on top of the AAC, and if they can win the next three games, including against UTSA, they're in the championship. Michael Pratt's numbers won't explode off the page, but he's efficient with an impressive 70.2% competition rate and has 15 touchdowns to just three picks. They'll turn to running back Makhi Hughes, who's been dominating in conference play with five games of over 100 rushing yards. Tulsa has a couple of competitive games against the lower-ranked teams in the AAC, but they've been smoked in two games, losing by 59 and 32. They will rely on the triple option to try and move the ball. It hasn't been successful, as they're second in rushing yards but tenth in rushing touchdowns. This matchup is terrible for Tulsa overall, as Tulane has one of the best run defenses in the country, and their 77.9 rushing yards allowed per game is fourth in the FBS.

Pick: Tulane -23.5

-John Supowitz

Washington State vs. California

These two teams are in desperate need of a get-right win. The Cougars have dropped five straight, while the Golden Bears have lost four in a row. The good news is both offenses should have no trouble getting back on track in this game. This is a classic strength vs. weakness showdown. Cal's rushing game averages 4.89 yards per attempt, while Wazzu is surrendering more than 4.5 yards per carry. On the other side, Wazzu's 30th-ranked passing offense should be able to throw all over a Golden Bears defense that's seventh-worst in the country in passing yards allowed per game. To top it off, both offenses play at a pretty fast pace, ranking top-35 in seconds per play. While it might get lost in between all of the marquee games on the slate, this game should be a back-and-forth shootout that might be worth tuning into. It's definitely worth an over bet, if nothing else.

Pick: Over 59

-Matt Barbato

Michigan State vs. Ohio State

The top-ranked team in the country hosts the Spartans on Saturday night. It’s been a nightmare year for Michigan State, who finally picked up their first Big Ten win last week against Rutgers. The Spartans haven’t been quite as bad as their record would indicate. Outside of the Michigan game, they’ve either led or been within one score of their opponent in the fourth quarter in four of the last five games. I don’t think they’ll be within one score against Ohio State, but their defense might be able to keep them from going down five touchdowns. The Spartan run defense has actually been pretty solid. It’s ranked 45th in the nation in EPA. This bodes well for them against an Ohio State run offense that has actually struggled until last week. The Buckeyes will likely try to establish that run game and it could prove costly if they want to really light up the scoreboard. The Ohio State offense has very little to prove that won’t be proven in two weeks in Ann Arbor. Michigan State’s defense will keep Ohio State within a few touchdowns and I have little confidence in their offense against this Buckeye defense. This is a perfect recipe for an under play.

Pick: Under 48

-Ryan Rodeman

Iowa State vs. BYU

Iowa State's loss to Kansas was a big blow to their Big 12 championship hopes. What happened last week was they had to try and compete in a shootout against the Jayhawks. They were able to pull that off against Oklahoma State, but they want to rely on their defense and ground game to win. BYU's first year in the Big 12 hasn't gone too well, as they sit 2-4 in the conference. They brought in former USC and Pitt quarterback Keldon Slovis to command this offense, but he hasn't found success, as he has career lows in completion percentage and yards per completion. The Cougars are slightly better on defense, but not enough to stop the Cyclones from blowing through.

Pick: Iowa State -8

-John Supowitz

Best Ways to Bet College Football for Beginners

Game Total

Bettors new to the hobby can be confused by spreads, but game totals are simple. Every football game has a total posted for the combined final score between the two teams. Bettors have the option to choose the OVER or UNDER, generally at -110 odds (risk: $110; win: $100). So if the total is 42 and you take the OVER, you need 43 points to win the bet. If you put a bet down on the over to win $100 and it goes over, you get back the money you initially risked, plus $100. If it stayed under, you would have lost your $110 and that's it. If by chance the game ended with 42 total points, it's called a push; when a game pushes, you get the money you risked back but nothing more.

ie: California vs. Illinois, Over 42 or Under 42

tip: Over bets can be a really fun social event with your buddies. Have everyone throw in a few bucks, then take the over together. Instead of getting pumped when one side scores, everyone is pumped for ANY score, all game.

Moneyline

The moneyline is the easiest way to test your college football knowledge: who will win the game? That's it. The moneyline doesn't use favorites or underdogs, it's totally straight up. That said, the risk-reward can be challenging because they're weighted. Instead of every game being around -110, like game totals and spreads, moneylines vary depending on the matchup.

For our example, California was favored by seven points over Illinois, meaning oddsmakers think the Golden Bears are a touchdown better than the Fighting Illini. If you took Cal on the moneyline, points don't matter, they just need to win the game. But because it's safer to take them straight-up without points, you'll have to risk more when you make the bet - remember, they're seven points better than Illinois in the eyes of the oddsmakers. In this case, Cal is -280 on the moneyline, so if you want to win $100, you have to risk $280. On the flip side, moneyline bets can be valuable when taking the underdog because it's a riskier bet - they're seven points worse than their opponent. In this case, Illinois is the underdog - +220 on the moneyline. You'd win $220 on a $100 bet if you picked Illinois on the moneyline and they pulled off the upset.

ie: California (ML -280) vs. Illinois (ML +220)

tip: Check their history against one another. Keep an eye on the injury report and the weather.

Player Props

Player props are some of the most exhilarating bets you can place during a college football game, but they're also easy to understand. For major conferences, you'll have a wide array of options to choose from. Quarterbacks, running backs, receivers, and sometimes tight ends will have props to choose from. It's simple, fun and easy to follow, and odds on player props don't vary as much as moneylines. Generally, prop bets are in the -110 range like generic spread and total bets.

ie: How many passing yards will Brandon Peters have against California? Over 250 or Under 250

tip: Check how players have performed in the situation they're going to be in. Use split stats on any reliable site to see their numbers at home, on a neutral-site, in December, etc.