Here’s an early look at College Football Week 13 spreads and totals, along with my projections. We’ll run through significant injuries affecting spreads and hit on games. You might want to consider betting early in the week due to the expected line movement.
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 13 College Football Power Rankings >>
In the box below are my adjusted spreads for this weekend's games. ATL stands for "Adjusted Thor Line." Spreads are from the home team’s perspective, i.e., a negative number means the home team is favored. In the value column, a negative number indicates points of value on the spread for the home team, while a positive number indicates points value on the away team. ATT stands for "Adjusted Thor Total." Projected totals are based on 2021 data and do not account for personnel or schematic changes (i.e., bring that with you to your handicap)
2022: 72-56-3 ATS (56.7%) | 2014-2021: 706-620-17 ATS (53.2%)
Game News
Virginia Tech (-1.5) vs. Virginia
ATL: VT -0.9
Last week's Virginia-Coastal Carolina game was canceled due to the tragic deaths of three Virginia football players - Devin Chandler, Lavel Davis Jr., and D'Sean Perry. At the same time, the possibility of this week's Virginia-Virginia Tech game being canceled was openly discussed. It was ultimately canceled late Monday.
In the wake of all the tragedy going on at Virginia right now, we finally got some good news in recent days: RB Mike Hollins, a shooting victim who survived the attack, was discharged from the hospital on Monday morning.
Hollins was shot in the back on Sunday, with the bullet damaging his kidneys and small intestine. He underwent two surgeries in the immediate aftermath. According to his father, Hollins intends to return to the football team following his recovery.
Pending
There are two other college football games with statuses that are up in the air: San Jose State-New Mexico State, originally scheduled for October 22 (tragic death of Spartans RB Camdan McWright in a scooter accident), and Buffalo-Akron, originally scheduled for this past Saturday (weather conditions this weekend in Buffalo).
SJSU AD Jeff Konya said last month that SJSU-NMSU would be rescheduled, but a complicating factor throughout was that the teams did not have a common bye week in the regular season.
SJSU has been eliminated from the MWC title game hunt. NMSU is an independent, opening up two possibilities: conference championship week (i.e., Saturday, Dec. 3) or Army-Navy Week (i.e., Saturday, Dec. 10).
San Jose State, 6-4, has already clinched bowl eligibility. The New Mexico State game will almost assuredly not alter the Spartans' bowl destination. Therefore, the Spartans may be apathetic about the game being played.
What'll be interesting is if the opponent, New Mexico State, ultimately feels differently. The Aggies, 4-6, are still alive for a bowl. If the Aggies upset Liberty this weekend, they would need the San Jose State game to be played to determine if they go bowling.
As for Buffalo-Akron, a rumor of a one-day delay to Sunday was quickly shot down as non-feasible by the conference. It's difficult to envision how the conference will squeeze this game in before the MAC title game next weekend.
And that could really complicate things. Akron is eliminated from the postseason. But Buffalo, 5-5, is still alive for bowl eligibility and the MAC title game itself. And here's where it gets really interesting. The MAC uses a unique “uneven number of games” tiebreaker.
Here's the upshot. If Buffalo-Akron is ultimately canceled, Buffalo would win the MAC East if it beats Kent State and Bowling Green upsets Ohio. Those two results would leave Buffalo 5-2 in-conference, and Bowling Green and Ohio both 6-2 - and the Bulls would advance to the MAC title game with the checkmate tiebreaker of having beaten both BGSU and Ohio.
Injury News
Ohio (-7) vs. Bowling Green (Tuesday)
ATL: Ohio -10.0
Ohio QB Kurtis Rourke suffered a knee injury in last week's 32-18 win over Ball State. He finished the game in street clothes on the sidelines, with a heavy brace and ice affixed to his right knee.
Late last week, HC Tim Albin said Rourke had no swelling, had ditched the crutches, and had been able to put weight on the knee without support. Rourke's status is clearly up in the air for Tuesday's game. For whatever it's worth, the Ohio message boards, as of Monday, do not believe Rourke will play.
Ohio turned to QB2 CJ Harris at quarterback to finish off Ball State. Harris responded by playing well in the second half against the Cardinals. But let's be clear: The downgrade from Rourke to Harris is precipitous.
Miami (OH) (-3) vs. Ball State (Tuesday)
ATL: Miami -4.9
Ball State RB Carson Steele suffered a head injury in the first half of last week's loss to Ohio and didn't return to the game. Steele presumably has been in concussion protocol ever since. No word has been given to the media on his progress.
As of Monday's publication time, I would consider Steele iffy to play. If that's what ultimately ends up happening, that would be a severe blow to Ball State's offense.
On the other side, Miami was without starting QB Brett Gabbert for Wednesday’s matchup with NIU. Gabbert was surprisingly ruled out just prior to the game for undisclosed reasons. Gabbert has struggled through a lost season filled with mysterious health issues.
It is unclear if Gabbert will play on Tuesday, but with how things have gone for him this year, I definitely wouldn't bet on that outcome. QB2 Aveon Smith will draw another start if Gabbert is inactive again.
Iowa (-10.5) vs. Nebraska (Friday)
ATL: Iowa -15.4
Last week's Minnesota-Iowa game, which featured the lowest point total in CFB history, was the second-coldest game in the history of Minnesota's stadium. The bitter conditions and hard-hitting teams were a recipe for injuries, and both teams got them.
Standout Iowa FB Monte Pottebaum and TE Sam LaPorta both left the game in the second quarter with injuries. It appears that each has already been ruled out for Friday's crucial game against Nebraska because neither Pottebaum nor LaPorta were on Iowa's game week two-deep released on Monday.
That's devastating for an already punchless Iowa offense. Fortunately for Iowa, they do have another standout TE on the roster in Luke Lachey, but it's unclear if the Hawkeyes use fewer two-TE sets on Friday or deploy the normal offense. Pottebaum's blocking will be sorely missed - Iowa's offensive line hasn't been this down in years.
Iowa will advance to the Big 10 title game with a win. The top-3 defense and top-5 special teams have carried the Hawkeyes all season. It will have to do it again to drag Iowa over the finish line and into a matchup in Indy with the winner of Saturday's Ohio State-Michigan game.
Tennessee (-14.5) at Vanderbilt
ATL: Tennessee -18.2
Tennessee QB Hendon Hooker suffered a season-ending torn ACL in Saturday’s shocking loss to South Carolina. It was a dreaded non-contact knee injury, with Hooker's foot catching in the turf and his leg buckling while he was rolling left on an option play.
Hooker's sensational 2022 season ends with 3,135 passing yards and a 27/2 TD/INT rate. His college career is now over. The 24-year-old was a sixth-year senior. It's unclear at this time how the injury will ultimately affect his draft process.
Tennessee will finish out the season with QB2 Joe Milton. "Bazooka" Joe is a former ballyhooed Michigan recruit who actually beat out Hooker for the job in camp last season before quickly ceding it.
In 247 career passes, Milton has completed 57.1% of his passes for a 13/6 TD/INT rate and 8.7 YPA. For comparison, Hooker completed 66.9% of his career 944 attempts for an 80/12 TD/INT rate and 9.5 YPA.
Tennessee's season was blown up during the mind-bending 63-38 loss to the Gamecocks. The Vols entered the day right on the doorstep of a CFP bid and were eliminated from that tournament. The Action Network's Brett McMurphy now projects Tennessee into the Cotton Bowl (against Tulane).
Ohio State (-7.5) vs. Michigan
ATL: OSU -6.9
Each of these teams had enormous scares over the weekend - Ohio State against Maryland and Michigan against Illinois - while looking ahead to this titanic matchup. Fortunately, each survived, setting up this marquee Week 13 battle of unbeatens.
But in a fascinating twist, each has enormous health issues it will have to navigate to reach a plum Big 10 title game matchup (against either Iowa or Purdue).
For Ohio State, injuries are nothing new - same story this week. Running back health and depth have been an issue all season and very much remain so. Heading into the Maryland game, there were serious questions about whether RBs TreVeyon Williams, Miyan Williams, or Chip Trayanum would be able to play.
HC Ryan Day tried to put lipstick on the pig mid-week by stating he was optimistic that all three could play. But the situation was just as ghastly over the weekend as we thought it might be: Only Henderson played of the three, and Henderson very clearly should have been withheld.
Henderson was held to 19 yards on 11 carries against the Terps, and then he was spotted in a walking boot on Monday. It would be surprising if he's active against Michigan. Williams has the better shot - a Monday report stated that he walked normally without support. We'll have a better idea later this week if he's kicked his lower-body injury.
It's unclear what Trayanum's status is. Day keeps saying he's going to return, and then he doesn't. Trayanum was shifted back to RB from LB mid-season because of the urgency of the situation, but he's logged only one carry all season. Regardless of his status, OSU doesn't want to be in a situation of relying on him against Michigan.
The Wolverines enjoyed a Heisman-caliber season from RB Blake Corum through 10 games, but Corum's knee injury against Illinois greatly complicates Michigan's backfield plans for Saturday as well.
Corum hurt his left knee late in the first half against the Illini last Saturday. There was brief hope that Michigan had avoided a major scare after Corum returned in the second half for one carry - but he was immediately yanked from the game and withheld for the rest of it.
Wolverines HC Jim Harbaugh repeatedly responded to reporters’ questions on Monday about Corum with there is "no update." This is what Corum himself told The Detroit News on Sunday: "My knee is good. I'll be fine. I'll be back." It was unclear if he was referring to this weekend, this season, or ever.
Michigan has one of the best RB2s in America in Donovan Edwards - but Edwards missed the Illinois game with an undisclosed injury. Harbaugh's comment Monday on that, and in fact with all other injuries, was a repeated "no update."
With this year's Buckeyes-Wolverines tilt, the chess match doesn't begin at kickoff. It began when both teams had concluded their games over the weekend. Get your popcorn ready, friends.
Appalachian State (-5.5) at Georgia Southern
ATL: Appy -7.7
Heading into last week's game against Marshall, there were rampant rumors that Georgia Southern QB Kyle Van Trease would not play. Those rumors turned out not to be true. Van Trease struggled mightily in the loss, but he played the entire game.
Unfortunately for Georgia Southern, they have plenty of injuries elsewhere. GSU recently learned that they'll be without long-snapper Mark Langston and 345-pound DT Latrell Bullard for the rest of the season due to injury. Previously, the Eagles lost three wideouts from their outstanding receiving corps for the rest of the season.
Kansas State (-11.5) vs. Kansas
ATL: KSU -14.0
Kansas QB Jalon Daniels returned from his six-week absence to start Saturday against Texas. Daniels had been sidelined since the TCU game on Oct. 8 after suffering a sprain to his throwing shoulder. The Jayhawks suffered their first loss that day.
Daniels passed for 230 yards with two touchdowns and an interception in a lopsided 55-14 loss. Daniels had been ramping up practice activity recently and was recently fully medically cleared for game action.
Result aside, Daniels' return was a fortunate thing indeed for the Jayhawks due to the uncertain status of KU's backup QB Jason Bean. Bean missed some plays at the end of the loss to Texas Tech the previous week after taking a shot, and he was limited in practice all last week due to the upper-body injury that resulted from that. Bean did enter the UT loss for a bit in mop-up time. But it's unclear just how healthy he is.
Ironically, Texas now becomes the world's biggest Kansas fan. Texas cannot make the Big 12 title game for a rematch with TCU unless KU upsets K-State. For the Wildcats, this is straightforward: Win and you're in.
The Wildcats will be without the services of QB Adrian Martinez again. Honestly, it doesn't really matter. QB2 Will Howard has been better in a sample that is becoming closer and closer to becoming even.
The offense, of course, changes with Howard. Howard is the clearly superior passer. He brings the offense an explosive aerial element it didn't have with Martinez. But he doesn't chip in the same rushing utility. With RB Deuce Vaughn on my roster, I'd slightly prefer Howard out there myself.
Kentucky (-3.5) vs. Louisville
ATL: UK -0.4
Louisville QB Malik Cunningham missed Saturday's game against NC State with a right shoulder injury he suffered against Clemson. UL QB2 Brock Domann drew his second career start for Louisville.
The first time Domann came off the bench cold for an injured Cunningham, he looked lost and out of place. But as a starter, Domann has been decent. Domann improved to 2-0 as a starter by leading the Cards to a 25-10 win on Saturday over a ranked team.
All HC Scott Satterfield is saying is that he's "hopeful" that Cunningham will play against Kentucky. Which, yeah, obviously. Hope is a good thing, maybe the best of things. But not when college coaches use it to keep us off the scent of player availability in the lead-up to a game.
Pittsburgh (-6.5) at Miami (FL)
ATL: Pitt -4.5
Miami QB Tyler Van Dyke missed Saturday's game against Clemson with the shoulder injury that's been bothering him. Canes QB2 Jacurri Brown drew the start in his place. It didn't go well. The Canes got smoked 40-10 and gained only 98 yards of total offense.
On Monday, Canes fans got good news. HC Mario Cristobal said on a local radio station that "there's a great chance" Van Dyke will return for Saturday's game against Pittsburgh. "He's been getting better and better," Cristobal said.
Miami coaches have repeatedly lauded Van Dyke's leadership this fall. So you'd have to expect that if he's medically cleared, Van Dyke's going to be out there on Saturday. Because this is a do-or-die game for 5-6 Miami's postseason hopes. Miami RB Henry Parrish Jr. returned against Clemson, so the offense could be the healthiest it's been in over a month if Van Dyke can play.
Clemson (-14.5) vs. South Carolina
ATL: Clemson -13.6
South Carolina RBs Marshawn Lloyd and Christian Beal-Smith were both out again on Saturday against Tennessee. So South Carolina, essentially out of healthy running backs, used TE Jaheim Bell as the lead back, with receivers getting the rest of the carries.
That put a ton of pressure on QB Spencer Rattler, who entered the game with an 8/9 TD/INT ratio. Unthinkably, Rattler went out and threw for 438 yards and six TD on 30-of 37-passes as the Gamecocks annihilated No. 5 Tennessee 63-38. What appeared to be a ravaged USC offense scored touchdowns on nine of 11 drives.
Lloyd has now missed three-straight games with a quad injury, and Beal-Smith has been inactive for the past two with an injury that has not yet been revealed to the media. The 5-foot-9 Lloyd is South Carolina's most valuable player. Or at least he definitely was heading into Saturday.
Buffalo (-4) vs. Kent State
ATL: Buffalo -5.7
Kent State QB Collin Schlee exited Wednesday’s matchup with EMU after he took a big shot on a long run. KSU inserted QB Devin Kargman. Kargman was horrific, going 7-for-19 for 91 yards as the Golden Flashes lost 31-24.
That loss dropped KSU to 4-7, eliminating them from bowl contention. Because of that, you can bet that Schlee won't be asked to play at less than 100%. The coaching staff has not addressed Schlee's injury, so it's difficult to ascertain his odds of being so on Saturday.
While this game now means very little for Kent State, it means a whole lot for Buffalo for the reasons discussed above. An upset loss theoretically means that Buffalo finishes 5-6 and is boxed out of bowl season. A win makes Buffalo bowl-eligible and gives them a chance to get into the MAC title game (if Bowling Green upsets Ohio).
Alabama (-22.5) vs. Auburn
ATL: Bama -23.2
A month ago, it would have been laughable to suggest that there was any chance whatsoever that Auburn could put up a fight in this game. But in our best quizzical Lee Corso/Ron Burgundy combo voice... Not so fast, my friend? Auburn has been playing great since firing former HC Bryan Harsin, and Alabama has a few injury concerns.
Alabama used Saturday’s game against Austin Peay as a quasi-bye, sitting RB Jahmyr Gibbs (ankle), TE Cameron Latu (ankle), and CB Eli Ricks (concussion). Gibbs returned to practice on Monday, a great sign. As was HC Nick Saban's revelation that Ricks has already cleared protocol. Both would appear to be on track to be full-goes for Auburn.
The status of LT Tyler Steen is less clear. For all Saban's precautions last Saturday, he couldn't protect himself from another key injury. Steen twisted his ankle in the second quarter and is considered day-to-day ahead of the Iron Bowl.
Wisconsin (-3) vs. Minnesota
ATL: UW -0.0
Wisconsin is reportedly moving closer to naming interim HC Jim Leonhard the permanent head coach. Leonhard has another potential injury - this one a biggie - to navigate heading into the regular-season finale against hated rival Minnesota.
Late in last week's lethargic 15-14 win at Nebraska, Wisconsin RB Braelon Allen had to be helped off the field with what appeared to be a right leg injury. No further details have been provided.
Allen has been banged-up all year. It's unclear if this was another crop-up of a nagging issue he can play through or whether Allen's regular season (at least) is now over. Hopefully, we'll get clarification later this week.
Meanwhile, I'd expect QB2 Athan Kaliakmanis to start again on the Minnesota side. Multiple folks around the Gophers program in recent weeks told me they expected Kaliakmanis to finish out the season as the starter. Morgan's injury details haven't been disclosed, but it appears likely that he's suffered multiple concussions - not good for a player that has had them in his past.
In the devastating loss to Iowa over the weekend, Minnesota also lost a pair of linebackers to injury - LB Lucas Finnessy to a leg injury and LB Braelon Oliver to an arm injury. Minnesota has, to this point, been similarly tight-lipped on their statuses.
One final thing to keep an eye on: Last week, Minnesota RB Mo Ibrahim had one of the most overlooked dominant offensive performances in all of college football this season, putting up 270 yards from scrimmage on 40 touches against a top-3 defense essentially as a one-man show.
That game was played in the one-degree windchill, with 20 mph winds swirling, and Ibrahim took numerous huge shots. Ibrahim is a full-go, but he would be superhuman if he played anywhere near that level on Saturday.
Any drop-off will be pronounced for the Gopher offense on the whole because Kaliakmanis is very clearly not ready to play FBS football yet. Gophs HC PJ Fleck has faced an enormous amount of criticism in the Twin Cities this week - he's going to be put to a huge test this weekend,
Cincinnati (-2) vs. Tulane
ATL: Cincy -3.0
Cincinnati QB Ben Bryant exited Saturday's win over Temple in the second quarter with a foot injury. Bryant was 9-of-18 for 130 yards and a TD when he left. Cincy QB2 Evan Prater closed the game out for Cincinnati.
The offense more or less stalled from there, but between Cincy's defense shutting down Temple and the benefit of good field position, the Bearcats coasted to the win.
USC (-6) vs. Notre Dame
ATL: USC -7.3
USC WR Mario Williams and LB Eric Gentry both returned from injury for the Trojans' triumphant three-point win over UCLA last Saturday. But Williams only played 24 snaps and clearly wasn't himself - posting a 44.4 PFF game grade - and Gentry only got through seven tackle-less snaps before USC yanked him from the game.
Afterward, USC DC Alex Grinch said coaches noticed Gentry limping on the field in pursuit and immediately decided to pull the plug. USC has not clarified the status of either heading into this weekend.
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