How on earth have we already reached Thanksgiving? How on earth is this the last weekend of one of the best college football regular seasons in recent memory? As the years go by, there’s no doubt in my mind that football season goes by faster than any other season on the calendar.
Fortunately, we’re putting together a pretty strong conclusion to the regular season. Last week’s picks went 3-1, and 4-1 if you took the lean on Duke +7.5 against Pittsburgh.
Let’s see if we can complete the regular season on another winning note. Here are my under-the-radar plays for the regular season finale. Since this is a unique weekend with the Thanksgiving holiday, I’ll denote what days each of these games is on to ensure you don’t miss them.
2022 season record: 24-16-1
Check out Thor Nystrom's Week 11 College Football Power Rankings >>
Arkansas Razorbacks (-3) at Missouri Tigers, Total 56
Kickoff: Friday, 3:30 ET
This is an odd spot for the Razorbacks, who secured bowl eligibility with a thrashing of Ole Miss at home. Now, Arkansas has to travel on a short week to Columbia against a Mizzou team that needs a win to qualify for a bowl.
Motivation and the matchup are on Missouri’s side. Arkansas relies heavily on a rushing attack that ranks 27th in the nation in yards per attempt. The Razorbacks ran for 335 yards on Ole Miss last week while throwing for just 168 yards. However, Missouri ranks 46th in run defense, allowing 3.78 yards per carry.
The Arkansas defense also can’t stop anyone. The Razorbacks rank 107th against the run and 118th against the pass. The Tigers don’t have much of a passing game, but they should be able to stay ahead of the chains on the ground and set themselves up for more manageable third-down situations.
Back the Tigers at home in what should be a tightly contested SEC finale.
The pick: Missouri +3
Nebraska Cornhuskers at Iowa Hawkeyes (-10.5), Total 39
Kickoff: Friday, 4 ET
Is there possibly a more irrelevant game on the weekend card than this one? OK, maybe that’s a little harsh. This game does matter to Iowa, who can clinch the embarrassing Big Ten West division crown with a victory. But don’t worry, I’m not advising you to lay double digits with Spencer Petras, I promise.
Instead, I’m going to suggest backing just the Iowa defense against a pathetic Nebraska offense. The Cornhuskers rank 88th in passing, 96th in rushing, and are averaging just 22.5 points per game. However, even that is misleading, as Nebraska hasn’t topped 14 points in its last four games against Wisconsin, Michigan, Minnesota, and Illinois, all of which rank in the top 30 nationally in scoring defense.
The Hawkeyes might be the toughest defense they’ve seen so far. Iowa is 5th in points allowed, sixth against the pass, and 17th against the run. Iowa’s secondary should be able to shut down the Nebraska passing game that can occasionally bust a big play or two.
With a spread of 10.5 and a total at 39, oddsmakers are projecting a game right around 24-14. But I don’t see how the Huskers put up more than two touchdowns with nothing to play for against a dominant defense. If you want to bet the Hawkeyes to cover, be my guest at your own risk. But I feel more confident fading this Nebraska offense.
The pick: Nebraska team total under 14 points (play down to 13)
Louisville Cardinals at Kentucky Wildcats (-3), Total 43.5
The annual showdown for the Governor’s Cup features two teams headed in opposite directions. After a 2-3 start to the season, the Cardinals have won and covered in five out of six, with the lone loss coming to Clemson. Meanwhile, the host Wildcats are 2-5 in their last seven after starting the year 4-0.
Without quarterback Malik Cunningham, the Cardinals have relied heavily on their 27th-ranked running game. Cunningham missed last week’s win over North Carolina State and is still considered day-to-day with hopes of playing in the regular season finale. If Cunningham can’t go, backup Brock Domann will get the nod and would represent a relatively steep dropoff. Domann is 2-1 in three starts in relief of Cunningham this season, however.
The Cardinals should be able to run successfully against a Kentucky front seven that isn’t elite like in years past. The Wildcats rank 64th against the run and 12th against the pass. That’s not much of an advantage against a run-heavy Cardinals attack.
On the flip side, Louisville’s defense has been the catalyst for its midseason turnaround. The Cards are giving up 19.6 points per game and rank 41st against the pass and 53rd vs. the run. Kentucky ranks outside the top 80 in both passing and rushing.
I never like fading a great coach in Mark Stoops, and Kentucky has won the last three meetings by 30+ points. But I think Big Blue’s reign of dominance in this series ends this weekend.
The pick: Louisville +3
Kansas Jayhawks at Kansas State Wildcats (-11.5), Total 62.5
Kickoff: Saturday, 8 ET
I normally don’t like laying huge numbers in rivalry games. And I hate fading one of the season’s best storylines in Kansas. But this year’s Sunflower Showdown has the makings of a blowout.
The Wildcats will already be plenty motivated for this grudge match, but there’s extra motivation knowing a win will punch their ticket to the Big 12 Championship Game for a rematch with TCU. But this matchup also screams smash spot for K-State.
The Wildcats utilize a power running game headlined by star running back Deuce Vaughn. K-State ranks 21st nationally with an average of 5.16 yards per carry, and Vaughn ranks 16th nationally with 1,148 yards. This rushing attack will face a Kansas defense that ranks 97th against the run and just served up 427 rushing yards to Bijan Robinson and the Texas offense at home last week.
Wildcats starting quarterback Adrian Martinez missed last week’s win over West Virginia. But backup Will Howard is plenty experienced and doesn’t represent much of a drop off at all should Martinez be unable to go.
The Jayhawks also possess an excellent running game, ranking third in the nation with 5.76 yards per carry. The problem is Kansas’ atrocious defense has forced its offense to go away from its ground game much earlier, which leads to problems for the dynamic Jalon Daniels.
Kansas has been an outstanding story, and they’ll definitely be a team I’ll be looking to back come bowl season. But the Jayhawks still are clearly a step behind in the Big 12. With a trip to the conference title game on the line, expect a great performance from Kansas State.
The pick: Kansas State -11.5
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