It’s Championship Week in college football.
That said, we won’t see Ohio State or Alabama this weekend. The two biggest powerhouses in college football could still make the College Football Playoff (CFP) but won’t be competing for a conference championship.
Meanwhile, the Texas Longhorns, who joined the SEC this season, have a chance to win the conference. Arizona State’s turnaround behind Kenny Dillingham has been phenomenal. He and Arizona State will have their chance this weekend.
Penn State has also escaped Michigan and Ohio State this season. It’s the best opportunity for James Franklin and Penn State to earn a Big Ten Championship.
With all that in mind, buckle up. I’ve got two best bets for Saturday.
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College Football Top Early Picks (Championship Week)
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Iowa State Cyclones vs. Arizona State Sun Devils
Iowa State and Arizona State are very similar. Both teams have a points differential of 10+ and both teams have scored more than 31 points per game.
In addition, both teams have held opponents below 22 points per game.
The difference is Arizona State’s run game against Iowa State’s run defense. Cameron Skattebo, Arizona State’s running back, has totaled 1,398 yards with 17 rushing touchdowns. As a team, Iowa State has recorded 195.33 yards per game on the ground.
Skattebo and Arizona State will face an Iowa State run defense that has given up 173.67 yards rushing per game. Iowa State is weaker up front on the defensive line. The Cyclones have also missed more tackles.
As long as Skattebo can get good chunks of yards on early downs, it’ll set up easy conversions for freshman quarterback Sam Leavitt, who has the 16th-best QB Rating in all of college football.
Let’s ride with Arizona State.
Pick: Arizona State -2.5 (-115)
Penn State Nittany Lions vs. Oregon Ducks
The Oregon Ducks are undefeated. Like Arizona State, Texas and SMU, Oregon can do the funniest thing by winning the Big Ten in its rookie season.
The Ducks are undefeated and ranked No. 1 in college football. A loss in this game wouldn’t knock them out of the College Football Playoff. Ultimately, a loss would probably even be safe for Penn State at this point.
That said, Penn State finally has an opportunity to play in the Big Ten Championship and doesn’t have to play Michigan or Ohio State, which is significant.
James Franklin has 39 losses in his career at Penn State. However, 10 of those losses came against Ohio State. While Oregon is just as difficult, this should at least make Penn State more confident.
While Dillon Gabriel is a potential Heisman Trophy finalist, Drew Allar has played significantly well throughout the season. He’s got a QB Rating of 81.6 and has thrown for 18 touchdowns with five interceptions. He’s also rushed for 225 yards and has five more rushing touchdowns. Penn State runs a different offense, but I’d say Allar has been just as efficient as Gabriel throughout the season.
I also love the fact Penn State has a couple of running backs it can trust. It keeps Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen fresh. In addition, there’s no player like Tyler Warren in college football. You simply can’t prepare for him.
I’ll roll with Penn State.
Pick: Penn State +3.5 (-115)
