Introducing the Week 12 edition of the BettingPros primer, brought to you by Bettingpros.com! I'm Andrew Erickson, and I'm here to guide you through each game on the NFL slate, offering insights and recommendations on sides, totals, and player props that you can quickly turn into a big single-game parlay.
Whether you're a seasoned bettor or just dipping your toes into the world of NFL wagering, this primer is designed to provide you with valuable perspectives and picks for the upcoming NFL week of action.
Get ready to tackle the NFL season with a betting lens as we break down the Week 12 matchups and identify our favorite bets and picks. Here are my top picks for the game between the Commanders vs. Cowboys.
Check out the rest of Andrew Erickson’s Week 12 Betting Primer>>
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Sides:
- The road team has won 10 of the Cowboys’ last 12 games.
- The road team has covered the spread in 10 of the Cowboys’ last 13 games.
- Dallas is 4-8 ATS and straight up as a road underdog.
- The Cowboys have covered the spread in eight of their last 13 games as home underdogs.
- The overall favorites have covered the spread in 22 of the Cowboys’ last 29 games.
- Dallas went 8-1 at home in 2023. They have lost five straight home games.
- Dallas is 3-2 on the road this season and ATS.
- The Cowboys have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last nine games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last 17 games. They are 7-3 ATS and straight up in their last 10 games.
- The Commanders have lost seven of their last 12 home games.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in eight of their last 13 games as favorites.
- The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
- The Commanders have failed to cover the spread in seven of their last eight games against teams with winning records.
- The Commanders have covered the spread as favorites in four of their last six games.
- The Commanders have won the first half in eight of their last nine games.
Totals:
- Eight of the Cowboys’ last 12 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fifteen of the Cowboys’ last 24 games have gone OVER the projected total (last 14 of 22 games).
- Games in Dallas have averaged north of 53 points this season (4-1 O/U).
- Since 2023, Dallas is 11-3 toward the over at home, averaging over 53 points per game.
- Fifteen of the Cowboys’ last 19 home games have gone OVER the total points line per DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Six of the Commanders’ last nine games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Fourteen of the Commanders’ last 19 games have gone OVER the total points line.
- Per DraftKings Sportsbook, nine of the Commanders' last 10 road games have gone OVER the total points line.
- When Washington doesn't allow 20 points on defense since the start of last season, they are 6-3 toward the under; when they allow at least 20 points on defense, they are 15-4 toward the OVER.
- The Commanders are 3-2 toward the under at home, averaging 44 points per game.
Overall:
I said it last week for Monday Night Football: Fade Dallas into oblivion.
So far, we are 1-0 in doing it. Trust the process. Washington is coming off additional rest against a Dallas Cowboys team that played on Monday night.
Two of Dallas' starting offensive linemen opened the week with DNPs. CeeDee Lamb didn’t practice with back and foot injuries.
Washington has not delivered playing in marquee matchups this season, but they have taken care of business against inferior opponents. The Commanders have covered the spread in each of their last seven games against teams that held a losing record.
Washington's No. 3-ranked run offense should have no issues against the worst run defense in the NFL.
Furthermore, the Commanders' defense should have a field day terrorizing Cooper Rush and the Dallas offense. No team has allowed fewer yards per game at home than the Commanders.
Dann Quinn knows the ins and outs of this Mike McCarthy offense, given his time spent as Dallas' defensive coordinator.
Like last week, I'm not overthinking this game. Commanders dominate, and the Cowboys' spiral in 2024 continues.
Dallas is 1-5 as a home underdog in their last six relevant games. 5-13 ATS as underdogs overall (4-8 as road dogs).
As for the total, it's an under for me. Dallas has averaged eight points per game in Rush's two starts this season. Only one team has scored more than 18 points against Washington at home this season.
Props:
Austin Ekeler has generated 401 yards after the catch this season, including +127 yards after the catch over expected, the 2nd-most in the NFL and the most among running backs.
Ekeler has gained more yards after the catch than was expected on 72.4% of his receptions, the highest rate among 87 receivers with at least 30 receptions. The Cowboys’ defense has surrendered a league-high 12.7 yards after the catch per reception to opposing running backs this season, the most by a defense in a season since 2016.
Ekeler is over 20.5 receiving yards in five of his last seven games played with Brian Robinson this season.
My Picks:
- Commanders -10.5
- Under 45.5
- Brian Robinson Jr. OVER 68.5 rushing yards
- Austin Ekeler OVER 20.5 receiving yards
