March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Creighton vs. NC State
Creighton Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner |
16.6 |
7.2 |
1.2 |
23.7 |
17.8 |
24.9 |
0.2 |
3.2 |
| Trey Alexander |
14.1 |
4.7 |
2.4 |
18.8 |
16.5 |
21.2 |
1.7 |
3.0 |
| Baylor Scheierman |
13.3 |
9.5 |
2.9 |
22.7 |
16.2 |
25.7 |
2.1 |
1.9 |
| Arthur Kaluma |
11.8 |
6.4 |
1.4 |
18.2 |
13.2 |
19.6 |
1.0 |
2.8 |
| Ryan Nembhard |
13.0 |
4.8 |
4.7 |
17.8 |
17.7 |
22.5 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
| Fredrick King |
1.9 |
1.4 |
0.1 |
3.3 |
1.9 |
3.3 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Francisco Farabello |
2.8 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
4.1 |
3.6 |
4.8 |
0.6 |
0.1 |
| Mason Miller |
2.3 |
1.7 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
2.5 |
4.2 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
| Shereef Mitchell |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
1.2 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Ben Shtolzberg |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zander Yates |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Sami Osmani |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Evan Young |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
NC State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Terquavion Smith |
16.1 |
4.0 |
3.9 |
20.1 |
20.0 |
24.0 |
2.2 |
1.9 |
| Jarkel Joiner |
16.5 |
5.5 |
3.6 |
22.0 |
20.0 |
25.6 |
1.6 |
2.3 |
| D.J. Burns |
11.6 |
5.3 |
1.4 |
16.9 |
13.0 |
18.3 |
0.0 |
0.9 |
| Casey Morsell |
11.4 |
5.0 |
0.9 |
16.4 |
12.3 |
17.3 |
2.0 |
0.8 |
| Jack Clark |
7.7 |
6.7 |
1.3 |
14.4 |
9.0 |
15.7 |
0.9 |
0.6 |
| Ernest Ross |
3.1 |
2.7 |
0.2 |
5.8 |
3.3 |
6.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| Dusan Mahorcic |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| LJ Thomas |
0.7 |
0.7 |
0.2 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
0.1 |
0.1 |
| Ebenezer Dowuona |
3.0 |
4.1 |
0.1 |
7.1 |
3.1 |
7.2 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Breon Pass |
1.7 |
1.1 |
0.3 |
2.8 |
2.0 |
3.1 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Greg Gantt |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jordan Snell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Chase Graham |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| KJ Keatts |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Alex Nunnally |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Creighton vs. NC State Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Creighton
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Ryan Nembhard Over 3.5 Assists |
-125 |
1.25 |
1 |
UB |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 21.5 PRAs |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
UB |
| Ryan Kalkbrenner Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-110 |
1.1 |
1 |
MGM |
| Trey Alexander Over 11.5 Points |
-121 |
1.21 |
1 |
UB |
| Arthur Kaluma Over 5.5 Rebounds |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
NC State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Jarkel Joiner Under 18.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
MGM |
| Terquavion Smith Over 2.5 Assists |
-144 |
1.44 |
1 |
FD |
| Jack Clark Under 1.5 3Ps |
-150 |
1.5 |
1 |
DK |
| Casey Morsell Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
