March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Illinois vs. Arkansas
Illinois Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Terrence Shannon |
17.2 |
5.2 |
2.6 |
22.4 |
19.8 |
24.9 |
1.2 |
6.4 |
| Matthew Mayer |
14.2 |
6.6 |
1.1 |
20.7 |
15.3 |
21.8 |
1.6 |
3.3 |
| Coleman Hawkins |
10.2 |
7.2 |
2.8 |
17.4 |
13.0 |
20.2 |
0.8 |
1.6 |
| Dain Dainja |
8.2 |
5.1 |
0.4 |
13.3 |
8.6 |
13.7 |
0.0 |
1.6 |
| Jayden Epps |
6.1 |
1.3 |
0.8 |
7.4 |
7.0 |
8.3 |
0.5 |
0.9 |
| RJ Melendez |
5.7 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
9.3 |
6.3 |
9.9 |
0.5 |
1.5 |
| Sencire Harris |
2.9 |
1.7 |
0.6 |
4.6 |
3.4 |
5.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Ty Rodgers |
2.6 |
3.6 |
0.7 |
6.2 |
3.3 |
6.9 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| Skyy Clark |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Luke Goode |
3.7 |
1.4 |
0.3 |
5.1 |
4.0 |
5.4 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
| Brandon Lieb |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Paxton Warden |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Connor Serven |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zacharie Perrin |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| AJ Redd |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Arkansas Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Ricky Council |
13.7 |
3.4 |
1.7 |
17.1 |
15.4 |
18.8 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| Anthony Black |
12.5 |
5.8 |
3.4 |
18.2 |
15.9 |
21.7 |
0.6 |
3.5 |
| Davonte Davis |
10.9 |
5.1 |
2.4 |
16.0 |
13.3 |
18.4 |
1.1 |
1.3 |
| Jordan Walsh |
6.8 |
4.5 |
0.8 |
11.3 |
7.6 |
12.1 |
0.4 |
1.2 |
| Makhi Mitchell |
7.9 |
7.2 |
1.1 |
15.1 |
9.0 |
16.2 |
0.0 |
1.4 |
| Nick Smith |
16.5 |
2.5 |
2.0 |
19.0 |
18.5 |
21.0 |
1.4 |
2.9 |
| Jalen Graham |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
0.6 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Makhel Mitchell |
4.1 |
4.2 |
0.3 |
8.3 |
4.4 |
8.6 |
0.0 |
0.5 |
| Trevon Brazile |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Joseph Pinion |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kamani Johnson |
0.5 |
0.8 |
0.0 |
1.3 |
0.6 |
1.4 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Derrian Ford |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Cade Arbogast |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Lawson Blake |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Barry Dunning |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Illinois vs. Arkansas Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Illinois
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Terrence Shannon Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-130 |
1.3 |
1 |
DK |
| Matthew Mayer Over 6.5 Rebounds |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
FD |
| Dain Dainja Under 9.5 Points |
-117 |
1.17 |
1 |
UB |
| Coleman Hawkins Over 2.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
MGM |
Arkansas
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Davonte Davis Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-106 |
1.06 |
1 |
FD |
| Anthony Black Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-127 |
1.27 |
1 |
UB |
| Ricky Council Over 1.5 Assists |
115 |
1 |
1.15 |
DK |
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More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
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