March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh
Iowa State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Jaren Holmes |
15.1 |
4.3 |
3.9 |
19.4 |
18.9 |
23.2 |
1.8 |
2.7 |
| Gabe Kalscheur |
14.7 |
2.9 |
1.9 |
17.6 |
16.6 |
19.5 |
3.2 |
1.8 |
| Osun Osunniyi |
5.5 |
2.7 |
0.7 |
8.2 |
6.2 |
8.9 |
0.1 |
0.9 |
| Caleb Grill |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Tamin Lipsey |
7.6 |
4.0 |
4.8 |
11.5 |
12.4 |
16.4 |
0.2 |
1.5 |
| Robert Jones |
5.5 |
3.6 |
0.9 |
9.1 |
6.3 |
10.0 |
0.0 |
0.8 |
| Aljaz Kunc |
5.0 |
2.9 |
1.0 |
7.9 |
6.0 |
8.9 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
| Tre King |
8.0 |
5.8 |
0.3 |
13.8 |
8.3 |
14.1 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
| Hason Ward |
4.4 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
8.0 |
5.0 |
8.5 |
0.0 |
0.1 |
| Demarion Watson |
2.2 |
3.5 |
0.5 |
5.7 |
2.7 |
6.2 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
| Eli King |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Conrad Hawley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Blake Hinson |
14.7 |
6.7 |
1.1 |
21.4 |
15.8 |
22.5 |
2.8 |
3.0 |
| Jamarius Burton |
12.2 |
4.4 |
3.2 |
16.5 |
15.4 |
19.8 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
| Nelly Cummings |
10.5 |
2.8 |
4.3 |
13.3 |
14.8 |
17.6 |
1.8 |
2.2 |
| Greg Elliott |
10.1 |
4.3 |
1.1 |
14.3 |
11.1 |
15.4 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
| Nike Sibande |
7.6 |
4.1 |
1.0 |
11.7 |
8.7 |
12.8 |
1.2 |
1.7 |
| Federiko Federiko |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Guillermo Diaz Graham |
7.3 |
8.0 |
1.4 |
15.3 |
8.7 |
16.6 |
0.5 |
2.7 |
| Jorge Diaz Graham |
1.1 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
2.3 |
0.2 |
0.5 |
| John Hugley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nate Santos |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Aidan Fisch |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| KJ Marshall |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Iowa State vs. Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Iowa State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Osun Osunniyi Under 7.5 Points |
-102 |
1.02 |
1 |
FD |
| Tamin Lipsey Over 3.5 Assists |
-150 |
1.5 |
1 |
DK |
| Gabe Kalscheur Over 13.5 Points |
-102 |
1.02 |
1 |
FD |
| Jaren Holmes Over 14.5 Points |
102 |
1 |
1.02 |
FD |
Pittsburgh
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Blake Hinson Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-129 |
1.29 |
1 |
UB |
| Nelly Cummings Under 11.5 Points |
-135 |
1.35 |
1 |
DK |
| Nike Sibande Under 8.5 Points |
110 |
1 |
1.1 |
MGM |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
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