Week 5 features an AFC South matchup between the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Houston Texans. Surprisingly, Houston is the team looking for its first win. Currently, the NFL odds are expecting exactly that to happen, as the Texans are clear home favorites.
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Jaguars vs Texans Odds and Info
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Opening Lines: HOU -6.5, O/U 54.0
- Moneyline: JAX: (+200) | HOU: (-245)
- Spread: JAX: +5 (-110) | HOU: -5 (-110)
- Total: 54.5 - Over: (-105) | Under: (-115)
- Location: NRG Stadium - Houston, TX
- Start Time: 1 p.m. EST
- Coverage: CBS
Overview
The Jaguars started the season with an upset win over the Indianapolis Colts. Since then, they have looked much closer to the team we expected to see this season. They have given up over 30 points in all three of their losses. Two of their defeats came against the Bengals and Dolphins, and those aren’t impressive opponents. Much of the disappointment can be blamed on the defense.
Jacksonville allows a league-high 76.98% completion rate, which is insane. It’s impossible to win games when the opponent is completing three of every four passes they throw. Luckily, Gardner Minshew has kept them in games offensively. He has passed for multiple touchdowns in three of his four games, and he’s also thrown for 275-plus yards in three of their four games. Minshew is also not taking the Jameis Winston approach, where stats look good because of volume but efficiency lacks. He has completed 72.1% of his passes for eight touchdowns to four interceptions.
The Texans made plenty of headlines when they fired general manager and head coach Bill O’Brien this week. It sounds like O’Brien was pretty hated in the locker room, so this likely a weight lifted off the shoulders of many players. Typically, we see teams come together and play better following a head coach firing, and this should definitely be the case, given how the team felt about him.
Hopefully, it will mean better days for the defense, because they have struggled thus far. The Texans rank in the bottom half of the league in nearly every defensive statistic, and the last-ranked run offense has made it tougher to keep the offense on the field, which has done the defense zero favors. Aside from the worst-ranked run offense, the Texans also give up the most sacks per game in the league (4.0). Despite this, Deshaun Watson has completed 65.6% of his passes for 1,092 yards, six touchdowns, and three interceptions. With a bit of protection, he could start turning Houston’s season around.
Trends
- Jacksonville is 4-8 against the spread (ATS) in its last 12 games.
- The total has hit the over in four of Jacksonville’s last five games.
- Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last five games.
- The total has hit the over in four of Houston’s last five games.
Prop Bet
All odds taken from FanDuel Sportsbook.
1st Quarter Spread: Houston Texans -0.5 (-106)
The Texans are itching to get on the field and just play now that BOB is gone. They are at home against a terrible defense. Expect for the Houston offense to come out hot and the defense to play emotionally early on. They should jump out to an early lead in this game.
Bottom Line
The Texans haven’t been able to protect Deshaun Watson, which has been a big reason for their struggles. Luckily, the Jaguars average just one sack per game (tied for second-worst in the NFL). With the team coming together and Watson getting time to throw, the Texans should find their first win of the season.
Pick: Texans -5
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Zach Brunner is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Zach, check out his archive and follow him @FantasyFlurry.