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Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots Odds & Game Pick

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The Chiefs and Patriots face off Sunday in a rematch of last year’s epic AFC Championship Game. Neither team currently holds home-field advantage in the AFC, but this game could go a long way in determining playoff seeding.

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Details

  • Opening Lines: FanDuel had the odds open as Patriots -3.5; O/U 49.5. The total has dropped one point and the spread has shifted to the key number of -3.
  • Current Line: Patriots -3
  • O/U: 48.5
  • Location: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
  • Start Time: 4:25 pm ET
  • Television: CBS
  • Last Meeting: January 20, 2019 — The Patriots defeated the Chiefs 37-31 at Kansas City in the AFC Championship.

View consensus picks from 100+ experts for the Chiefs at Patriots >>

Overview

The Chiefs are coming off their most impressive win of the season, a 40-9 beatdown of the Raiders in a game that had huge AFC West divisional race implications. Prior to that game, the Chiefs had lost four of their last seven games after starting the season 4-0. Patrick Mahomes was injured for a brief period, but oddly enough, three of the Chiefs’ four losses this season have come in games that Mahomes has started. The third-year pro has thrown for 2,983 yards, 20 touchdowns, and just two interceptions this season.

A big part of the reason why the Chiefs are just 8-4 is because of their defense. They rank in the bottom quarter of the league in total yards against and they are giving up the third-most rushing yards per game behind only the Bengals and the Dolphins. The teams that have beaten the Chiefs have been able to successfully run the ball against them and keep the ball out of Mahomes’ hands.

The Patriots, however, are not a team that has run the ball effectively this season. They’re averaging just 96.3 yards per game on the ground and Tom Brady has the most pass attempts in the NFL. Brady is fifth in the league in passing yards and the Patriots rank eighth in the league in passing yards per game. Many are acting like Brady’s career is over, but while his numbers are weak compared to some of his other seasons, he still has a 3:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has the third-most completions in the NFL.

The Patriots’ defense continues to put up historic numbers, allowing just 12.1 points per game, but they have struggled against some of the better offenses in the NFL. Both of their losses, to the Ravens and the Texans, have seen the defense let mobile quarterbacks have big days. Mahomes could cause problems for a secondary that allowed Deshaun Watson to throw for three touchdowns last week. The Patriots are ranked second in passing yards against, allowing just 163.5 yards per game.

Trends

  • The Chiefs are 7-5 ATS this season.
  • The Patriots are 7-5 ATS this season.
  • The total has gone under in eight of the Patriots’ 12 games this season.
  • The total has gone over in seven of the Chiefs’ 12 games this season.
  • The Chiefs are 5-1 SU on the road this season.
  • The Patriots are 5-0 SU at home this season.

Prop Bet

Chiefs over 23 points (-115)
The Patriots have the best defense in the NFL, but when they have played against their best competition, the Ravens and the Texans, the defense had not been as solid as it was against weaker opponents. The Ravens were able to put up 37 points and the Texans scored 28. The Chiefs have scored less than 23 points only once all season and that was in their Week 5 loss to the Colts. That game featured a perfect gameplan by Frank Reich and 180 rush yards by the Colts’ offense. The Colts have one of the best running attacks in the NFL, while the Patriots do not. Expect a lot of points on both sides of this one.

Bottom Line

Everyone is acting like the sky is falling in New England, and yet, the truth of the matter is that they are 10-2 and very much alive for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. They have not looked good this year against the best teams they’ve played, but the Chiefs have been very inconsistent and, since their 4-0 start, have been just a .500 football team. The Patriots lost twice last season following a loss, but very rarely has Belichick lost back-to-back weeks throughout his career. This is the first time all season that the Patriots are getting a home game against an AFC contender and, while the Chiefs have been great on the road, I’m backing the better defense and Belichick off the loss. 

Pick: Patriots -3 (-110)

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Philip Wood is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Philip, check out his archive and follow him @Phil_Wood_Jr.