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Kansas City Chiefs @ Arizona Cardinals
Sunday, September 11, 4:25 PM ET
- Line: -3.5
- Total: 53
Both teams’ defenses are a bit sketchy heading into the 2022 season. Arizona lost its top pass-rusher in Chandler Jones and doesn’t have much depth behind him. The defensive backs also may be the worst unit in the NFL.
As for Kansas City, they will need some time to revamp this offense with Hill leaving for the Dolphins. Anytime you have an elite QB like Patrick Mahomes, you will have a chance to win the game, and the 2022 Chiefs may have to rely on his arm more than in years past.
This game could come down to the first team scoring 30 points winning.
The Pick: Over 53 (-110)
Kansas City Chiefs Over 10.5 Wins
I normally don’t bet overs, especially high overs. If you add up all the consensus win totals in the market, the number you get is 273.5 … but there are only 272 games in the regular season.
Unsurprisingly, the win total market is inflated: Casual fans tend to bet based on team allegiance, and that means sportsbooks can skew their numbers upward. Hence, unders tend to be sharper bets, and fewer overs offer value.
But I can’t help myself with the Chiefs, who are No. 2 in my power ratings. They lost WR Tyreek Hill in the offseason — as well as WRs Byron Pringle and Demarcus Robinson — but they brought in WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Skyy Moore to replace them, and they still have QB Patrick Mahomes.
Say whatever you want about his so-called struggles last year, but in 2021 the Chiefs were No. 1 in success rate (51.1%, per RBs Don’t Matter) with Mahomes, and since he entered the league he’s No. 1 in composite EPA and completion percentage over expectation (0.175). He’s still the best quarterback in the league (in my opinion).
And HC Andy Reid is still one of the best offensive play callers and overall coaches. In his nine years with the team, the Chiefs have failed to go over 10.5 wins just twice. And in each of Mahomes’ four seasons as the starter, the team has won 12-plus games.
If the market is skeptical on Mahomes and Reid, I’ll gladly back them.
Bet: Over 10.5, -115 (BetMGM)
Limit: -125
Skyy Moore Under 680.5 Yards Receiving
- Projection: 658.6 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Tuesday, August 23, 10 a.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: To this point in the preseason, Moore has been behind WRs JuJu Smith-Schuster, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Mecole Hardman and Justin Watson. I imagine that he will eventually overtake Hardman and Watson — he has the talent to do it — but that might not happen early enough in the season for him to hit the over.
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