March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market.
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
- 2023: 89-67, +19.4 units (Through Thursday Round 1)
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Marquette vs. Vermont
Marquette Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Kameron Jones |
16.8 |
4.2 |
2.0 |
20.9 |
18.7 |
22.9 |
3.1 |
1.0 |
| Tyler Kolek |
14.0 |
4.6 |
7.1 |
18.6 |
21.1 |
25.7 |
1.4 |
2.2 |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper |
13.6 |
5.3 |
0.7 |
18.9 |
14.2 |
19.6 |
1.1 |
2.7 |
| Oso Ighodaro |
11.9 |
6.5 |
3.0 |
18.4 |
14.8 |
21.3 |
0.0 |
1.0 |
| David Joplin |
7.8 |
2.9 |
0.6 |
10.7 |
8.3 |
11.2 |
1.6 |
0.7 |
| Stevie Mitchell |
7.1 |
2.8 |
1.0 |
9.9 |
8.1 |
10.9 |
0.6 |
1.0 |
| Chase Ross |
4.9 |
1.9 |
0.7 |
6.8 |
5.6 |
7.5 |
0.6 |
0.6 |
| Sean Jones |
1.8 |
0.4 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
2.3 |
2.7 |
0.2 |
0.3 |
| Ben Gold |
1.0 |
0.4 |
0.1 |
1.4 |
1.1 |
1.5 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
| Keeyan Itejere |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Zach Wrightsil |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jonah Lucas |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jake Ciardo |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michael Kennedy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Caleb Kozinski |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| RJ Walson |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Vermont Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Dylan Penn |
13.8 |
4.0 |
2.6 |
17.8 |
16.4 |
20.4 |
0.6 |
2.4 |
| Aaron Deloney |
9.5 |
2.4 |
1.8 |
11.9 |
11.3 |
13.7 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
| Finn Sullivan |
11.6 |
6.0 |
2.7 |
17.6 |
14.3 |
20.3 |
2.0 |
1.7 |
| Matt Veretto |
9.2 |
3.9 |
1.0 |
13.1 |
10.2 |
14.1 |
1.8 |
0.6 |
| Robin Duncan |
6.6 |
7.7 |
4.4 |
14.4 |
11.0 |
18.8 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| Kameron Gibson |
7.0 |
1.9 |
0.8 |
8.9 |
7.8 |
9.7 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
| TJ Hurley |
4.1 |
1.7 |
0.4 |
5.8 |
4.5 |
6.2 |
0.7 |
0.9 |
| Ileri Ayo-Faleye |
2.7 |
2.0 |
0.2 |
4.8 |
2.9 |
5.0 |
0.2 |
0.7 |
| Nick Fiorillo |
2.3 |
1.4 |
0.5 |
3.7 |
2.9 |
4.2 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Sam Alamutu |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
0.3 |
0.5 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Perry Smith |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jorge Ochoa |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Michel Ndayishimiye |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Marquette vs. Vermont Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Marquette
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Tyler Kolek Under 18.5 Points |
-112 |
1.12 |
1 |
UB |
| Olivier-Maxence Prosper Over 10.5 Points |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
MGM |
| Oso Ighodaro Over 2.5 Assists |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Kam Jones Over 13.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
DK |
| Oso Ighodaro Over 10.5 Points |
100 |
1 |
1 |
MGM |
Vermont
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Aaron Deloney Under 10.5 Points |
-113 |
1.13 |
1 |
FD |
| Matt Veretto Under 16.5 PRAs |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
UB |
| Dylan Penn Over 3.5 Rebounds |
-120 |
1.2 |
1 |
DK |
More Round 1 Player Prop Bet Picks
Round 1 Same Game Parlay Picks
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
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