I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my running back projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.
Free Content
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
Premium Content
Some notes on my projections and process:
I have recently created my own 2022 NFL player projections, which can be used to help you make bets in the season-long player market.
In this piece, you'll find my running back projections as well as all the bets I like at the position. For more, check out my other pieces on season-long props.
Free Content
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Strategy Guide
- 2022 Season-Long Player Props: Best Bets (Out Soon)
Premium Content
Some notes on my projections and process:
- I recommend betting unders in the season-long prop market, not overs. In other words, don’t bet a whole bunch of overs just because my projections point in that direction. That would be a bad idea. I touch more on unders vs. overs in my overall guide to betting 2022 NFL season-long player props.
- My projections are not the official BettingPros or FantasyPros projections, which are entirely independent from mine. These are just my pseudo-random projections. For the official BettingPros projections, see our season-long prop bet cheat sheet, which compares our projections with the current lines in the market to highlight the props that offer the most value. It's a great tool. For the official FantasyPros projections, check out our season-long consensus projections page, which provides statistical forecasts for almost every skill-position player in the league.
- My projections are solely to help me - and now you - navigate the season-long prop market. That's it. I wouldn't use them for making draft decisions in fantasy football, where it makes more sense to focus on upside than median outcome. For the prop market, though, the median is what matters most.
- With the prop market in mind, I know that I don't need these projections to be perfect, so I haven't tried to make them perfect. I just need them to be good enough to be directionally correct. In other words, I won't be obsessively updating these projections every day.
- The season-long prop market is not overwhelmingly robust. You can find hundreds of wagers to make, but very few of them are for players who aren't relevant in fantasy. You won't find props for No. 2 quarterbacks, most No. 2 running backs, many Nos. 2-3 wide receivers and even some No. 1 tight ends. As a result, I don't care much about being accurate with those players. I'm not ignoring their projections, but I'm also not investing extra time into working out the nuances of their projections. That would be a -EV (expected value) use of my time, especially since I can't bet into any market to profit from my work.
2022 Season-Long NFL Running Back Projections
Projections updated as of Aug. 22
| Player |
RuYd |
RuTD |
Rec |
ReYd |
ReTD |
| Jonathan Taylor |
1474.1 |
13.1 |
41.1 |
319.6 |
1.6 |
| Derrick Henry |
1458.2 |
12.1 |
27.5 |
206.2 |
0.9 |
| Dalvin Cook |
1189.5 |
9.2 |
44.8 |
319.1 |
1.2 |
| Nick Chubb |
1175.3 |
8.4 |
23.7 |
185.4 |
0.9 |
| Najee Harris |
1142.7 |
7.9 |
58.0 |
396.2 |
2.3 |
| Joe Mixon |
1103.1 |
9.4 |
39.5 |
280.1 |
2.0 |
| Saquon Barkley |
965.8 |
7.5 |
50.1 |
361.6 |
2.0 |
| Christian McCaffrey |
944.5 |
7.3 |
80.8 |
686.8 |
3.0 |
| Cam Akers |
942.7 |
7.5 |
31.7 |
250.7 |
1.7 |
| Javonte Williams |
941.2 |
6.9 |
44.2 |
325.6 |
2.5 |
| Miles Sanders |
902.3 |
4.9 |
30.0 |
209.1 |
0.9 |
| David Montgomery |
897.0 |
7.1 |
42.2 |
324.7 |
1.6 |
| Ezekiel Elliott |
893.7 |
7.9 |
40.5 |
272.5 |
1.9 |
| J.K. Dobbins |
880.7 |
8.0 |
29.0 |
215.0 |
1.2 |
| Leonard Fournette |
876.0 |
7.9 |
57.1 |
398.1 |
2.2 |
| Elijah Mitchell |
870.4 |
5.4 |
23.7 |
169.3 |
1.0 |
| Breece Hall |
869.3 |
5.8 |
36.2 |
269.6 |
1.1 |
| Alvin Kamara |
864.9 |
7.3 |
52.6 |
457.3 |
3.4 |
| Austin Ekeler |
860.6 |
7.7 |
65.0 |
546.5 |
4.2 |
| Antonio Gibson |
846.7 |
6.6 |
31.4 |
219.9 |
1.1 |
| James Conner |
845.8 |
9.5 |
40.2 |
312.2 |
1.5 |
| D’Andre Swift |
842.2 |
6.5 |
64.7 |
481.8 |
2.7 |
| Damien Harris |
824.9 |
8.5 |
16.9 |
122.0 |
0.5 |
| Aaron Jones |
794.2 |
5.9 |
53.3 |
423.1 |
3.3 |
| Rashaad Penny |
783.1 |
5.6 |
19.8 |
148.6 |
0.7 |
| AJ Dillon |
765.9 |
5.5 |
32.7 |
262.6 |
1.6 |
| Travis Etienne |
760.1 |
5.5 |
50.5 |
363.9 |
1.8 |
| Josh Jacobs |
758.0 |
6.8 |
28.3 |
178.5 |
0.4 |
| Devin Singletary |
740.5 |
5.4 |
27.6 |
191.6 |
1.0 |
| Tony Pollard |
727.4 |
4.2 |
38.6 |
289.7 |
1.3 |
| Rhamondre Stevenson |
703.1 |
5.9 |
27.4 |
209.5 |
1.1 |
| Ken Walker |
695.1 |
4.8 |
17.4 |
127.0 |
0.7 |
| Clyde Edwards-Helaire |
687.8 |
5.1 |
37.0 |
273.7 |
2.0 |
| Melvin Gordon |
678.9 |
5.9 |
24.3 |
176.7 |
1.3 |
| Kareem Hunt |
605.9 |
4.9 |
40.6 |
316.9 |
1.9 |
| Dameon Pierce |
602.9 |
3.9 |
22.0 |
159.6 |
0.9 |
| Chase Edmonds |
591.9 |
3.8 |
42.8 |
312.7 |
2.0 |
| Raheem Mostert |
552.5 |
4.1 |
14.3 |
113.6 |
0.8 |
| Jamaal Williams |
542.6 |
3.6 |
19.6 |
133.2 |
0.7 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson |
540.0 |
4.5 |
45.4 |
415.6 |
2.5 |
| James Robinson |
528.1 |
4.4 |
21.5 |
153.3 |
0.8 |
| Darrell Henderson |
526.4 |
3.7 |
23.1 |
171.6 |
1.2 |
| Brian Robinson |
484.2 |
4.2 |
14.3 |
104.0 |
0.4 |
| Marlon Mack |
480.7 |
3.1 |
16.8 |
118.9 |
0.5 |
| Gus Edwards |
469.6 |
3.6 |
12.1 |
101.5 |
0.6 |
| Alexander Mattison |
461.4 |
3.3 |
22.7 |
170.3 |
1.0 |
| Michael Carter |
456.7 |
2.7 |
29.2 |
227.8 |
0.9 |
| Zamir White |
443.4 |
3.6 |
11.0 |
81.5 |
0.4 |
| Mark Ingram |
423.2 |
3.4 |
18.9 |
130.5 |
0.5 |
| James Cook |
414.2 |
2.8 |
37.4 |
282.4 |
1.6 |
| Sony Michel |
409.9 |
2.9 |
8.7 |
59.7 |
0.2 |
| Khalil Herbert |
406.5 |
2.6 |
17.1 |
126.7 |
0.7 |
| Isaiah Spiller |
390.7 |
2.9 |
18.8 |
136.5 |
0.8 |
| Tyler Allgeier |
389.2 |
3.3 |
14.9 |
108.7 |
0.8 |
| Rachaad White |
346.0 |
2.6 |
22.4 |
169.7 |
1.1 |
| Damien Williams |
335.8 |
2.6 |
18.3 |
132.3 |
0.8 |
| Isiah Pacheco |
334.4 |
2.7 |
17.7 |
132.7 |
0.9 |
| Kenneth Gainwell |
333.1 |
2.8 |
23.9 |
185.3 |
1.0 |
| Ronald Jones |
329.5 |
3.0 |
7.9 |
55.0 |
0.2 |
| Boston Scott |
313.4 |
3.1 |
13.3 |
98.7 |
0.5 |
| Matt Breida |
284.1 |
1.7 |
15.0 |
110.4 |
0.8 |
| Rex Burkhead |
282.4 |
2.2 |
27.6 |
208.1 |
1.2 |
| Nyheim Hines |
281.8 |
1.9 |
44.5 |
343.4 |
1.8 |
| D’Onta Foreman |
280.9 |
2.0 |
9.6 |
73.3 |
0.3 |
| Kenyan Drake |
269.7 |
2.2 |
21.6 |
166.2 |
1.0 |
| Tyrion Davis-Price |
267.5 |
2.2 |
7.8 |
57.2 |
0.2 |
| Chuba Hubbard |
266.6 |
2.2 |
14.4 |
102.7 |
0.5 |
| Hassan Haskins |
257.6 |
1.6 |
9.0 |
66.4 |
0.2 |
| Joshua Kelley |
244.5 |
1.5 |
9.0 |
65.4 |
0.3 |
| Samaje Perine |
232.1 |
1.4 |
22.7 |
157.9 |
0.9 |
| J.D. McKissic |
221.0 |
1.3 |
49.7 |
404.5 |
1.9 |
| Ke’Shawn Vaughn |
208.8 |
1.8 |
6.1 |
43.6 |
0.2 |
| Darrel Williams |
197.6 |
2.2 |
18.2 |
138.5 |
0.6 |
| Mike Davis |
188.2 |
1.7 |
10.0 |
64.7 |
0.3 |
| Zack Moss |
187.0 |
1.8 |
6.9 |
51.3 |
0.3 |
| Eno Benjamin |
186.7 |
1.2 |
8.8 |
67.2 |
0.3 |
| Phillip Lindsay |
179.7 |
1.1 |
5.9 |
41.1 |
0.2 |
| Jerick McKinnon |
178.3 |
1.3 |
17.1 |
134.6 |
0.7 |
| Benny Snell |
173.6 |
1.2 |
8.1 |
53.3 |
0.2 |
| Dontrell Hilliard |
172.4 |
1.0 |
23.6 |
165.2 |
0.8 |
| Jeff Wilson |
170.6 |
1.5 |
8.3 |
61.2 |
0.6 |
| Chris Evans |
154.9 |
0.9 |
17.5 |
144.1 |
1.1 |
| Trey Sermon |
150.3 |
1.2 |
5.3 |
37.4 |
0.2 |
| Kyren Williams |
133.3 |
1.2 |
7.1 |
52.6 |
0.3 |
| Justin Jackson |
126.5 |
0.9 |
8.9 |
66.3 |
0.2 |
| Snoop Conner |
122.7 |
0.8 |
6.4 |
44.7 |
0.1 |
| Tevin Coleman |
119.3 |
0.6 |
6.3 |
42.8 |
0.2 |
| D’Ernest Johnson |
115.5 |
0.8 |
9.3 |
66.6 |
0.2 |
| Giovani Bernard |
113.5 |
0.9 |
16.2 |
114.3 |
0.7 |
| J.J. Taylor |
97.4 |
1.0 |
6.0 |
40.4 |
0.2 |
| Tyler Badie |
95.1 |
0.6 |
6.0 |
43.6 |
0.3 |
| Pierre Strong |
90.5 |
0.5 |
7.3 |
53.0 |
0.2 |
| Ameer Abdullah |
84.1 |
0.6 |
22.3 |
188.9 |
1.2 |
| Jaylen Warren |
83.3 |
0.7 |
5.0 |
35.0 |
0.2 |
| Travis Homer |
73.6 |
0.3 |
9.2 |
69.6 |
0.3 |
| DeeJay Dallas |
72.7 |
0.6 |
10.0 |
68.6 |
0.2 |
| Rico Dowdle |
71.4 |
0.6 |
4.2 |
29.7 |
0.1 |
| Abram Smith |
70.5 |
0.6 |
2.7 |
17.8 |
0.1 |
| Myles Gaskin |
70.3 |
0.4 |
4.0 |
26.3 |
0.1 |
| Anthony McFarland |
67.8 |
0.6 |
4.9 |
36.4 |
0.2 |
| Larry Rountree |
67.5 |
0.5 |
3.2 |
23.2 |
0.1 |
| Mike Boone |
65.8 |
0.4 |
4.1 |
29.9 |
0.1 |
| Kene Nwangwu |
57.8 |
0.4 |
3.4 |
24.6 |
0.1 |
| Trestan Ebner |
57.5 |
0.5 |
5.8 |
42.0 |
0.2 |
| Ty Montgomery |
56.1 |
0.5 |
19.3 |
156.3 |
0.9 |
| Darrynton Evans |
48.8 |
0.2 |
4.0 |
26.8 |
0.1 |
| Kevin Harris |
46.7 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
10.7 |
0.1 |
| Ty Johnson |
42.7 |
0.2 |
4.2 |
31.5 |
0.1 |
| Ty Chandler |
26.6 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
5.0 |
0.0 |
2022 Season-Long NFL Running Back Prop Bets
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Nick Chubb Under 1,200.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 1,175.3 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Without QB Deshaun Watson until Week 13, the Browns could rely more on the running game — but the offense could also be bad.
Nick Chubb Under 10.5 Touchdowns Rushing
- Projection: 8.4 touchdowns
- Odds: -125
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.25
- Notes: Only once in Chubb’s four-year career has he scored more than 10.5 touchdowns on the ground: 2020 (12), when the Browns won 11 games. In each of his three other seasons, Chubb scored eight touchdowns rushing. With their win total of 8.5, the Browns seem unlikely to gift Chubb a wealth of scoring opportunities.
Najee Harris Under 1,150.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 1,142.7 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: The Steelers are No. 28 in our FantasyPros offensive line rankings, and Harris seems unlikely to have 307 carries this year, given the sheer volume of everything that must go right for a back to hit that threshold in any given season.
David Montgomery Under 900.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 897.0 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: The Bears are dead last in our offensive line rankings, and the new coaching staff might choose to give No. 2 RB Khalil Herbert a regular change-of-pace role.
Elijah Mitchell Under 924.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 870.4 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Throughout the entirety of his tenure in San Francisco, HC Kyle Shanahan has never had the name No. 1 back two years in a row — and Mitchell (hamstring), who battled an assortment of nicks last year, is already dealing with a soft-tissue injury heading into the season. Mitchell is one of my 2022 fantasy players to avoid.
Elijah Mitchell Under 7.5 Touchdowns Rushing
- Projection: 5.4 touchdowns
- Odds: -165
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.65
- Notes: Even with 207 carries and 963 yards rushing last year, Mitchell (200 pounds) scored just five touchdowns, and this year Trey Sermon (215 pounds) and Tyrion Davis-Price (211 pounds) both have potential to steal goal-line carries, given their size.
Devin Singletary Under 750.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 740.5 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: The Bills drafted RB James Cook in the second round, and third-year change-of-pace back Zack Moss has gotten run in the preseason. I expect this backfield to be a ceiling-capped committee.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire Under 700.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 687.8 yards
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: In Weeks 1-2 of the preseason, Edwards-Helaire (15), Isiah Pacheco (13) and Jerick McKinnon (8) all got first-team snaps. This backfield could be highly unfriendly to Edwards-Helaire.
Joe Mixon Under 10.5 Touchdowns Rushing
- Projection: 9.4 touchdowns
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: BetMGM
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Last year, Mixon easily had a career-high 13 touchdowns rushing. In his previous four seasons, he had a median of 4.5. No one really knows how regression happens — but it happens.
Christian McCaffrey Under 8.5 Touchdowns Rushing
- Projection: 7.3 touchdowns
- Odds: -130
- Sportsbook: Caesars
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.3
- Notes: I hate myself for betting this. I mean, I hate myself for lots of reasons — but one of those reasons is betting McCaffrey’s under. If I have the top pick, I’m taking McCaffrey at the 1.01, primarily because of his upside — but I think the under is more realistic than the over. The Panthers could use D’Onta Foreman or Chuba Hubbard in short-yardage situations near the goal line in an attempt to preserve McCaffrey, and he has gone over this number in just one of five seasons.
Austin Ekeler Under 8.5 Touchdowns Rushing
- Projection: 7.7 touchdowns
- Odds: -115
- Sportsbook: DraftKings
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.15
- Notes: Last year, Ekeler scored 12 touchdowns on the ground. In his four NFL seasons before that, Ekeler never had more than three. Ekeler is almost certain to have fewer than the career-high 206 carries he had last year, and with that decline in usage a diminishment in scoring opportunities should come. This is one of my favorite bets of the year.
Leonard Fournette Over 750.5 Yards Rushing
- Projection: 876.0
- Odds: -112
- Sportsbook: FanDuel
- Date & Time: Monday, August 22, 10 p.m. ET
- Units: 1.12
- Notes: Another over, for my inner degenerate. Every year full-ish season (13-plus games) in which Fournette has been a starter he has gone over this number — and after resting in Week 1 he played all 11 of the first-team snaps in Week 2, earning five carries in the process. Uncle Lenny is the locked-in starter, and he’ll get his work.
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