Welcome to my fourth bracketology article this season. We are deep into the college basketball season, and most teams are starting to show their true colors as we gain more and more data daily. I will be here to update my projected bracket weekly, and then I'll provide more consistent updates in early March as the tournament approaches.
Now, you may wonder what the point of bracketology is, so let me tell you. Participating in this practice is a great way to identify better value for teams' betting futures. You may be high on a team, but an understanding of their seeding and potential opponents is critical, and I'm here in an attempt to give you the most accurate projections to determine just that.
Bracketology also gives you an early introduction to the potential Cinderella's of the field, allowing you to be a step ahead of everyone else, saving you valuable research time once the bracket is released.
Before I get started, let me give you the rundown. For now, I'll provide my projected seeding for the field of 68. Then, next week, I will organize teams by their region, providing my projected bracket and region breakdown.
Before conference-champion auto-bids start to roll in, I will provide my tournament "locks." These teams have left no doubt that they are tournament-worthy, even though they may not have clinched a bid outright yet. However, I'll take a conservative approach here because college basketball is like the Wild West sometimes, and any teams' season can turn on a dime.
Finally, I'm building this bracket based on today's standings rather than by projecting where it might be in the future. But that's enough rambling; let's get to the seeding.
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Locks
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- Gonzaga (15-2)
- Baylor (18-2)
- Auburn (19-2)
- Arizona (16-2)
- Purdue (16-3)
- Wisconsin (15-3)
- Kentucky (16-4)
- Villanova (15-5)
- UCLA (14-2)
- Houston (17-2)
- Kansas (19-4)
- Texas Tech (18-5)
- Illinois (17-5)
- Providence (20-2)
- Ohio State (14-5)
- Texas (18-6)
- Marquette (16-7)
- UConn (15-6)
You may be laughing at me for how few teams I have on here still, even on February 8th, but these are my absolute – without a doubt – locks to be in the tournament. Michigan State is a team that is essentially 99% there. But have you seen their recent form? It's concerning. And in a conference like the Big Ten, I'm going to wait an extra week before locking them entirely down. Kansas and Texas Tech are easy additions out of the Big 12, and I had to show the Big East some love with three new locks. Ohio State has been cruising of late to earn their spot, along with Illinois and Texas.
Title Contenders: In my weekly Power Rankings article, I gave you my title contenders ranking in three tiers:
Tier 1: Kentucky, Gonzaga
Tier 2: Arizona, Duke, Auburn
Tier 3: Texas Tech
That article gave a brief overview of why I see those teams as my top-six title contenders. Now, let me give you my reasoning why I left some teams out. Let's start with Kansas. The Jayhawks would be the seventh team in these rankings. Still, their relatively lacking defense, inability to keep teams off the offensive glass, and dependency on Ochai Agbaji give me hesitance. Just last night, we saw Texas play elite deny-defense against Agbaji to keep him away from the ball in the final seconds. As a result, Kansas missed a low-percentage look, and Texas took that game down.
Baylor is another team I can't see winning a championship. Scott Drew is an incredible coach, but it also takes a while to grasp his scheme fully. With the number of new names on the roster this season, along with the injury problems they've faced, I don't see the Bears able to fully execute what they were able to do last year. Houston has lost two of their top five scorers this year, and while we haven't seen the repercussions of that yet, I am sure we will come tourney time. Purdue's lack of defense will hold them back, UCLA's inconsistencies scare me, and I don't currently see any other team worthy of that championship discussion.
Don't get me wrong, when the tournament starts, the slates are team, and anything can happen. History has given us a lot of data, however, and right now, if you made me pick a champion, it would be Kentucky.
Let's get to the seeding.
*Play-in games
Bold = Conference Champions
First Four Out
- North Carolina
- UAB
- Notre Dame
- West Virginia
Next Four Out
- Utah State
- Florida State
- Washington State
- Dayton
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Ryan Coleman is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Ryan, check out his archive.