March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
First Four Games Best Bets
Game Bets
Same Game Parlays
March Madness is here, which means it’s time for me to dust off the ol’ player projection model, forecast the playing time for hundreds of players I’ve never heard of and place a psychologically unhealthy number of prop bets for the next three weeks.
I’ll be honest: I don’t follow college basketball. I like the sport in theory, but in actuality I don’t take the time to watch it. That has been the case for years.
Even so, in 2019 I pulled together a “model” (set of spreadsheets) to project player production for the NCAA men’s basketball tournament, and since then I’ve used this model (and updated versions of it) to bet profitably in the player prop market. Be sure to join our free Bracket Contest. Prizes up for grabs include a lifetime BettingPros/FantasyPros subscription and a signed Giannis Antetokounmpo jersey!
- 2019: 125-69-12, +39.8 units
- 2021: 106-64-1, +33.8 units
- 2022: 243-210, +14.9 units
First Four Games Best Bets
Game Bets
Same Game Parlays
Player Prop Bets
Use our FREE bracket optimizer to build a winning men’s NCAA tournament bracket & take down your contest >>
2023 NCAA Tournament Player Prop Bet Projections: Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh
Mississippi State Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Tolu Smith |
19.0 |
10.4 |
2.1 |
29.4 |
21.1 |
31.5 |
0.0 |
4.9 |
| Shakeel Moore |
12.1 |
3.8 |
2.8 |
15.9 |
14.9 |
18.7 |
1.5 |
1.4 |
| D.J. Jeffries |
9.1 |
6.6 |
1.9 |
15.7 |
11.0 |
17.6 |
1.3 |
1.3 |
| Dashawn Davis |
8.9 |
2.1 |
3.8 |
11.0 |
12.7 |
14.8 |
1.4 |
1.7 |
| Cameron Matthews |
8.4 |
6.7 |
2.8 |
15.1 |
11.2 |
17.9 |
0.2 |
2.2 |
| Tyler Stevenson |
1.8 |
0.8 |
0.1 |
2.6 |
1.9 |
2.8 |
0.0 |
0.3 |
| Eric Reed |
2.2 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
3.3 |
2.7 |
3.8 |
0.5 |
0.2 |
| William McNair |
2.4 |
2.5 |
0.3 |
4.9 |
2.7 |
5.2 |
0.1 |
0.3 |
| Shawn Jones |
4.2 |
2.2 |
0.6 |
6.3 |
4.7 |
6.9 |
0.8 |
0.4 |
| KeShawn Murphy |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Kimani Hamilton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Jamel Horton |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Martavious Russell |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Justin Rumph |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Isaac Stansbury |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Projections
| Player |
PTs |
REBs |
ASTs |
PTs + REBs |
PTs + ASTs |
PRAs |
3Ps |
FTs |
| Blake Hinson |
14.7 |
7.3 |
1.3 |
22.0 |
16.0 |
23.2 |
3.0 |
2.4 |
| Jamarius Burton |
14.3 |
5.5 |
4.3 |
19.7 |
18.6 |
24.1 |
0.6 |
2.7 |
| Nelly Cummings |
9.6 |
2.8 |
4.6 |
12.4 |
14.2 |
17.0 |
1.7 |
1.7 |
| Greg Elliott |
8.8 |
4.0 |
1.1 |
12.9 |
10.0 |
14.0 |
2.2 |
1.3 |
| Nike Sibande |
7.8 |
4.5 |
1.3 |
12.3 |
9.0 |
13.5 |
1.3 |
1.4 |
| Federiko Federiko |
6.4 |
6.4 |
0.5 |
12.8 |
6.9 |
13.4 |
0.0 |
1.2 |
| Guillermo Diaz Graham |
2.6 |
2.9 |
0.5 |
5.5 |
3.1 |
6.1 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| Jorge Diaz Graham |
1.2 |
1.1 |
0.2 |
2.3 |
1.4 |
2.5 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
| John Hugley |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Nate Santos |
0.2 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
0.2 |
0.4 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| Aidan Fisch |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
| KJ Marshall |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
0.0 |
Mississippi State vs. Pittsburgh Player Prop Bet Picks
All betting odds are from:
Mississippi State
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Shakeel Moore Over 2.5 Assists |
120 |
1 |
1.2 |
DK |
| D.J. Jeffries Over 7.5 Points |
-104 |
1.04 |
1 |
UB |
| Shakeel Moore Over 2.5 Rebounds |
-132 |
1.32 |
1 |
UB |
| Dashawn Davis Over 3.5 Assists |
105 |
1 |
1.05 |
DK |
| Tolu Smith Over 8.5 Rebounds |
-141 |
1.41 |
1 |
UB |
Pittsburgh
| Prop |
Odds |
Units |
To Win |
Book |
| Blake Hinson Over 4.5 Rebounds |
-150 |
1.5 |
1 |
UB |
| Blake Hinson Over 12.5 Points |
-115 |
1.15 |
1 |
UB |
| Jamarius Burton Over 4.5 Rebounds |
100 |
1 |
1 |
DK |
| Nelly Cummings Over 2.5 Rebounds |
125 |
1 |
1.25 |
DK |
| Blake Hinson Over 20.5 PRAs |
-105 |
1.05 |
1 |
DK |
Win Prizes in our FREE Bracket Contest >>
Round 1 Betting Picks & Predictions
South
East
West
Midwest
Check out all of our coverage for the 2023 NCAA Tournament >>
Subscribe: Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Google Podcasts | Stitcher | RadioPublic | Breaker | Castbox | Pocket Casts
