After hitting Brent Rooker on Friday, we were blanked last night with our top three home run props. Let’s try to get back on track with today’s three MLB home run props. Let’s get after it.
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Sunday’s Best MLB Home Run Props & Picks
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
Bryce Harper (+390)
Bryce Harper has smashed a .302 ISO and a wOBA of .400 against his last 65 righties. The lefty slugger has hit 59% of hard contact and a 12.8% barrel rate against righties during that time.
Today, Harper will face David Sandlin of the White Sox, who has allowed a .174 ISO and a wOBA of .376 to his last 26 lefties. Those lefties have walked over 11% of the time and have hit 58.8% of hard contact with an 11.8% barrel rate.
Sandlin has also allowed over 35% of fly balls to lefties over the last month. Harper has plenty of potential to go deep in today’s game.
Mike Yastrzemski (+630)
Mike Yastrzemski has hit a .310 ISO and a wOBA of .467 against his last 52 righties. That’s a strong sample size, even for someone batting at the bottom of the lineup. Yastrzemski has minimized strikeouts against righties over the last month and has hit almost 40% of fly balls with 51.5% of hard contact.
Yastrzemski is set to face Bubba Chandler of the Pirates, who has allowed a .250 ISO and a wOBA of .360 to his last 48 lefties this season. Chandler has also given up 33.3% of fly balls to lefties and nearly 47% of hard contact.
Chandler has had success against righties, but has struggled against lefties. Hopefully, Yastrzemski can take advantage.
Luke Raley (+370)
Luke Raley has smashed a .361 ISO and a wOBA of .447 against his last 68 righties. The lefty has had high strikeout numbers against righties, but he’ll face Jack Flaherty, who has only struck out 21.8% of lefties over the last 30 days. Raley has hit 31% of fly balls, with a team-best 21.4% barrel rate against righties in the last 30 days.
Flaherty has allowed 35% of fly balls with a 10% barrel rate and a 55% hard-hit rate over the last month. He’s also given up a .176 ISO and a wOBA of .355 to his last 55 lefties. Raley is always a dangerous at-bat for righties. Roll with Raley to go long.
