Prior to yesterdays game against the Pittsburgh Pirates, the Athletics ha belted 23 home runs in a seven-game span, their most in a seven-game span in franchise history. While a lot of that is owed to playing six games at the bandbox that was Las Vegas Ballpark, is still has me excited to back one of their sluggers with my MLB home run props.
Read on for my top three MLB home run bets for Thursday.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Kody Clemens (+349)
Kody Clemens is amid his hottest stretch at the plate. He is batting .292 with seven home runs, 13 total extra-base hits, and 13 RBI in his last 18 games. His OPS has risen from .730 to .811, and he has more multi-hit games (six) than hitless games (four) in that span.
Leiter has allowed three home runs in his last four starts, and his 1.4 HR/9 rate is a product of his career-worst 32.4% fly ball rate. In addition, his xSLG is worse than his actual slugging percentage allowed on three of his four primary pitches.
Leiter has allowed seven of his 12 home runs to left-handed batters, with a slugging percentage 57 points worse than when facing righties.
Miguel Vargas (+285)
Given Miguel Vargas’ ranks among third basemen, he seems like a shoe-in to earn his first All-Star Game nod. He entered yesterday tied for first in home runs, first in RBI, fourth in on-base percentage, fourth in slugging, second in wRC+, third in fWAR, and third in stolen bases (among players who had played 50% of games at third base, min. 120 PA).
Vargas’ improved power is a direct result of his increased bat speed. In fact, his increase in a swing speed of 70.6 mph to 74.1 mph is the largest among all qualified hitters over the last two seasons. Vargas also has the fourth-highest slugging percentage on inside pitches and his 1.162 OPS against southpaws is second only to Paul Goldschmidt. That makes this a mouth-watering matchup against Ryan Weathers, who has allowed seven home runs in his last three starts.
Nick Kurtz (+293)
Among players with a minimum of 200 plate appearances this season, Nick Kurtz entered yesterday ranked 18th in batting average, tied for ninth in home runs, first in RBI, first in on-base percentage, and sixth in slugging.
Though he is facing Angels ace Jose Soriano, Kurtz is still 2-for-10 against the righty with a home run in his career, giving him a respectable chance to add to the team’s gaudy home run total of late. Kurtz’s OPS since May 30 is the second-highest among all position players, and he entered yesterday amid a 16-game on-base streak, during which he had a 1.385 OPS, 10 home runs, and 20 RBI.
With a home run today, Kurtz would tie Bob Johnson for most by an Athletics player in the first two seasons of their career.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.