Though there are just 11 games on Thursday’s MLB slate, I am still providing three MLB home run props to try and profit from, with a pick from an interleague game, an NL divisional rivalry, and an AL matchup between two likely playoff squads. I’m also fading two starting pitchers who are making their debuts with new teams.
Read on for my top three MLB home run props for Thursday, August 6th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Elly De La Cruz (+292)
The Athletics entered yesterday’s matchup having lost six straight games and 11 of 13. Over that 13-game span, their bullpen pitched to an MLB-worst 7.36 ERA, while the team overall had a collective 7.17 ERA over the losing streak. Therefore, it likely doesn’t bode well that the Athletics are sending Mason Barnett to the mound, a converted reliever who has only thrown five innings once this season.
Elly De La Cruz has hit 10 of his 18 home runs against right-handed pitching, but I’d expect him to have a good chance of facing both righties and lefties in this game given how short of an outing Barnett is likely to turn in.
Barnett has allowed an OPS 233 points higher to left-handed batters. And while he hasn’t allowed a single home run in 12 road innings, Great American Ball Park is one of the most hitter-friendly stadiums, and I expect the ball to be flying out today.
Brandon Lowe (+361)
Dustin May makes his Milwaukee Brewers debut, but his opponent is not new to him, as he has already faced the Pirates lineup twice this season while pitching for the Cardinals. Pittsburgh tagged May for six runs in 11.1 innings, and while the righty only allowed one home run in that span, Brandon Lowe is 2-for-5 with both of his career hits being homers in seven plate appearances against the righty.
Lowe has already hit 23 home runs this year, marking the fourth straight season he has reached the 21-home plateau. Of those last four seasons, he entered yesterday with his best numbers in every slash line category, while his 118 OPS+ is the second-highest it’s been among the last five.
Lowe is clearly benefiting from protection in a revamped Pirates lineup after coming over from the Rays, and his lowest ground ball rate since 2021 and highest fly ball rate of his career have played well at PNC Park thus far.
Ceddanne Rafaela (+610)
Ceddanne Rafaela entered yesterday amid a six-game extra-base hit streak. Over that span, he batted .462 with three doubles and four home runs. Meanwhile, in his first 18 games since the All-Star Break, he batted .329 with seven home runs, an AL-leading 20 RBI, 17 runs scored, and a 1.022 OPS.
Boston went 32-46 through its first 78 games, while averaging 3.9 runs per game, batting .241 with runners in scoring position, belting 67 home runs, and posting a collective .697 OPS. But over the next 34 games, the Red Sox went an MLB-best 29-5 while averaging 5.3 run per game, batting .285 with runners in scoring position, belting 48 home runs, and logging a collective .764 OPS.
Amid their six-game winning streak entering yesterday, the Red Sox had homered four times in consecutive games. I am banking on Rafaela going deep off of Luis Castillo in his White Sox debut, as the righty has allowed a .338/.397/.584 slash line in 71 combined at-bats to current Red Sox hitters.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.