With an intriguing slate of WNBA games tonight, I looked at some of the top Market-based EV bets available at different legal sportsbooks. Review my favorite bets below, but don’t forget to check out all the other valuable bets as well.
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Thursday’s Best +EV WNBA Picks
All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated
Marina Mabrey Under 20.5 Points (-115 at Hard Rock Bet)
- Fair Value: -139
- Market EV: +9%
Marina Mabrey has scored at least 21 points in 46% of games this season. She’s also hit this line in just four of her last ten games, including a 12-point performance against Golden State last time out.
Mabrey has shot 40.1% from the field over the last 30 days. She’s also drained just 29.3% from downtown in that same time frame. In fact, Mabrey scored only 19 points against Portland earlier this season after shooting way better than her averages in the last ten games.
Therefore, let’s grab some value and take Mabrey to score below 19.5 points in tonight’s game. It’s a 9% market EV, which is the best on the board right now.
Caitlin Clark Under 3.5 Rebounds (+144 at NoVig)
- Fair Value: +131
- Market EV: +6%
Caitlin Clark finished with just one rebound in her last game against Minnesota. Additionally. she’s added at least four rebounds in just four of her last ten games and has hit this line in only 40% of her last 20 games. Her minutes are rising, but that hasn’t helped her rebounds much.
Clark has just one offensive rebound in her last ten games. Therefore, we’ll want to take a look at Clark to record below 3.5 rebounds at +144 via NoVig. That’s a 6% positive expected value play since the fair value is currently at +131.
Courtney Williams Over 4.5 Assists (+145 at DraftKings)
- Fair Value: +136
- Market EV: +4%
Courtney Williams has tallied at least five assists in three of her last four games. In fact, she’s hit this line in two consecutive games and still has a line at +145 at DraftKings to earn at least five assists.
Williams has even hit this line in 9 of 16 games against the Sparks, averaging 5.6 assists in those 16 games. That only helps the confidence level here.
You can land Williams to get at least 4.5 assists at +145, when the fair value is just +136. It’s another strong positive expected value play that you’ll want to consider for your WNBA betting portfolio.
