There are just five games on Thursday’s Major League Baseball slate, making it the lightest Thursday slate for the remainder of the season. Because of that, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to two wagers.
The Texas Rangers have dominated the Seattle Mariners head-to-head this season. I expect a Rangers slugger to add insult to injury with another home run in the teams’ last meeting of the season.
I also recognize that Aaron Judge is back in the lineup for the New York Yankees, but it’s another Bronx Bomber I expect to go deep in the series finale. It all looks to build off of yesterday’s profitable day after cashing a long ball from the MLB home run leader, Kyle Schwarber.
Read on for my top two MLB home run props for Thursday, September 10th.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Corey Seager (+423)
The Mariners’ pitching staff was arguably the team’s biggest strength entering the season, and the reason why many picked them to make it all the way to the World Series. But lately that strength has been their Achilles heel, as they’re collectively on pace to pitch to the worst second-half ERA in franchise history.
Logan Gilbert has been an All-Star for Seattle in the past, but even he hasn’t been immune to the occasional blowup. Gilbert is 0-2 with a 9.31 ERA over his last two starts. That overshadows him matching a season-high with 10 strikeouts in his last outing.
Corey Seager goes deep for a 3rd straight game ?'? pic.twitter.com/5nLZfh1Qu1
— MLB (@MLB) September 9, 2026
Gilbert has allowed a .333/.405/.576 slash line in 33 at-bats to Corey Seager. Five of Seager’s 11 hits off Gilbert have gone for extra bases, and even though just one has left the yard, he is now facing arguably the worst version of Gilbert that he’s faced in his career.
Ben Rice (+255)
Ryan Feltner is not just a victim of Coors Field, as his road numbers are just as bad as his numbers in home starts. In some cases, they are worse.
Feltner has pitched to a 5.36 road ERA. His eight home runs allowed in over 47 road innings rival his 11 homers allowed in 59.2 innings at Coors Field. Feltner’s .300 opponents’ batting average in road starts is eye-popping, and his 1.6 HR/9 rate overall sits as the 23rd-worst among pitchers who have thrown at least 90 innings.
Ben Rice entered September batting .199 with 30 hits, six home runs, 18 RBI and 21 runs scored in 40 games since the All-Star break. But I’m cautiously optimistic about Rice’s chances of going yard, especially since his numbers should have been way better than they were at the start of the second half.
"Unluckiest" Qualified Hitters of the 2nd Half (wOBA-xwOBA):
1. Ben Rice➡️ -.083
2. Christian Yelich➡️ -.074
3. Nathan Church➡️ -.061
4. Brandon Marsh➡️ -.058
5. Xander Bogaerts➡️ -.057 pic.twitter.com/rHJVx8kf5l— Baseball Unstitched (@BaseUnstitched) August 17, 2026
You won’t find a better pitcher to target from a home run perspective on today’s small slate than Feltner. For what it’s worth, I’d advise leaving all Rockies hitters out of your home run portfolio, as Max Fried leads MLB pitchers (minimum 90 innings) with a 0.28 HR/9 rate.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.