Major League Baseball teams are receiving more off days as the season progresses. With just nine games on Thursday’s slate, I’m limiting my MLB home run props to two wagers.
The Chicago Cubs are coming off an historic August from a home run perspective, so it makes sense to add one of their red-hot sluggers to my home run portfolio even if they’re facing a tough pitcher and divisional opponent. I also am intrigued by a Seattle Mariners recent call-up who is playing in his home debut tonight, and look to build upon yesterday’s profitable 2.49-unit day after Jackson Chourio cashed our +449 home run wager.
Read on for my top two MLB home run props for Thursday, September 3rd.
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Thursday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Alex Bregman (+583)
The Cubs mashed an NL record 62 home runs in August, beating the Braves’ record of 61 for a single month set in June 2023. Their 62 long balls trail only the Yankees for the most all-time, when the Bronx Bombers hit 74 home runs in August 2019.
Chicago got to that illustrious total by hitting a single-game franchise record nine home runs earlier this series. In that game the Cubs scored 17 runs, their second time doing that in a three-game span. And it helped them cap off an August in which they scored an MLB-high 178 runs (they scored double-digit runs six times in the month), while averaging 6.4 runs per game, and logging a plus-54 run differential and .863 OPS.
Alex Bregman was a key contributor to Chicago’s offensive success in August. He finished the month with the only two three-home run games of his career, and also tied him for the most such games in a single month in MLB history. At that time, he was batting .296 with 14 home runs, 26 extra-base hits, and 36 RBI in 41 games since the All-Star Break.
Bregman also surpassed 800 career RBI in August. He is now the sixth active third baseman (and 44th all-time) with 200-plus home runs and 800 or more RBI.
Bregman had a four-game extra-base hit streak snapped on Tuesday, but he still came out of that leading MLB with a 1.089 OPS since July 27 (min. 125 PA). We’re getting great value on this wager, as he faces Logan Henderson, who is the second pitcher since 1893 with three earned runs or fewer in each of his first 19-plus career starts.
Lazaro Montes (+610)
Lazaro Montes had a heck of a debut for the Mariners on Tuesday, logging an RBI single and drilling a 407-foot home run. In the process, he became the first Mariner with multiple hits in his debut since Ichiro Suzuki in 2001.
Montes showed why he is the team’s No. 5 prospect, and displayed the raw power that saw him hit 38 home runs in the minors this year. He should take advantage of an Athletics pitching staff that ranks in the bottom of the league in nearly every statistical category. Athletics pitchers have collectively allowed 211 home runs (the worst in the AL). J.T. Ginn in particular is coming off allowing a season-worst three home runs in his last start.
Have a debut, Lazaro Montes!
After recording his first hit and RBI, he smacks his first MLB home run! ?'? pic.twitter.com/cG4dcKZHRl
— MLB (@MLB) September 2, 2026
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.