We turned in a profitable week with our MLB home run props last week thanks to Gabriel Moreno, who ended a long homer-less drought. His blast last Wednesday netted us +7.2 units in profit.
Today, two of my three MLB home run best bets are from players with three career home runs apiece against today’s opposing starting pitcher. The last is from a Padres slugger who has arguably made the biggest improvements from last year to this year.
Here are my top MLB home run props for Wednesday’s slate.
Find the best price on every home run prop >>
Wednesday’s Best MLB Home Run Props
(Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook)
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Brandon Lowe (+460)
Pittsburgh has seen a massive improvement in its offense from a year ago. The Pirates rank second in runs per game (5.2), third in batting average (.260), third in on-base percentage (.337), third in slugging rate (.421) and fourth in wRC+ (108).
Pittsburgh leads the Majors with nine hitters with a 100 wRC+ or higher (minimum 100 plate appearances). While in theory that means there should be plenty of value plays for its sluggers to go deep, I’m siding with Brandon Lowe’s career success against Eduardo Rodriguez, even if I am compromising a bit on his price.
Lowe has three home runs off the southpaw, with a 1.042 OPS in 17 career at-bats. Rodriguez has allowed four home runs in four starts this month, and that worsened HR/9 pace suggests he is having trouble keeping the ball in the yard amid the warmer weather.
Ty France (+513)
Ty France entered yesterday with a .548 slugging rate, which ranked seventh among batters with a minimum of 250 plate appearances. He also totaled a 142 wRC+, which was fifth among first basemen. France is one of seven players with a 120 wRC+ or better in each month (minimum 40 plate appearances).
France’s improved numbers are highlighted in the following table, which details how his numbers across different batted-ball metrics from last season to this year rank among Statcast qualifiers.
| Pull% | Pull Air% Increase | Hard-Hit Rate | Average Exit Velocity | Barrel Rate | |
| Increase From 2025 | +7.4% | +7.1% | +6.1% | +3.0% | +4.1% |
| Rank Among Statcast Qualifiers | T-11th | 4th | 10th | 3rd | 9th |
To add to this data, France has the third-highest slugging rate against non-fastballs (.605) and is third in batting average in that split (.331). Lastly, his .603 slugging rate on low pitches ranks second.
Jose Ramirez (+283)
Jose Ramirez looked rusty after a five-week layoff, slashing .188/.278/.188 in four games since coming off the injured list (IL). But the slugger's career history against Brady Singer is why I'm confident he will go yard tonight.
Ramirez is 12-for-31 in his career against Singer. His 1.267 OPS is a product of five of his 12 hits going for extra bases, including three home runs.
Singer had a HR/9 rate of 1.1 or better in each of his first six seasons, but is on pace for a much worse 1.8 HR/9 rate this season. His two worst fly-ball rates are each of his two seasons with the Reds, which isn't ideal in the hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park.
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.