MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Odds & Picks: Monday (8/19)

There are 10 games on the docket for Monday across Major League Baseball. Unfortunately, three of them carry the dreaded "TBD" designation for a starting pitcher. Because of that, I am automatically removing them from consideration for my NRFI (No Runs First Inning) bets. Of the remaining seven, four are interleague games. That limits historical data from a batter vs. pitcher perspective.

However, there are still a couple of games I am comfortable wagering on. Both of these NRFI bets are similar from a theoretical standpoint, which I will dive into below.

Here are two of my favorite NRFI plays for Monday, August 19.

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Monday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks

(All bets are one unit unless otherwise specified)

Los Angeles Angels (+165) at Kansas City Royals (-200) | O/U 8.5 (-130/+110)

Starting Pitchers: Carson Fulmer vs. Seth Lugo

Seth Lugo has been one of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball this season. He enters Monday's matchup with the Los Angeles Angels with a 13-7 record and a 3.04 ERA. His first-inning numbers are even better. Lugo is 21-4 to the NRFI this year, including 10-2 at home.

So far in August, the Angels have been the worst offense in the league versus right-handed pitching. Their 74 wRC+ overall and -27 wRC+ in the first inning against righties are both dead last in MLB.

Albeit in a small sample size, Lugo has had success against the hitters at the top of the Angels lineup. Taylor Ward, Zach Neto, and Logan O'Hoppe are a combined 1-for-9 in their careers versus the veteran. I expect Seth Lugo to shut out the Angels in the first inning.

The other side of the NRFI coin figures to be a bit tougher. However, Carson Fulmer has acquitted himself well, pitching 5-1 to the NRFI. He has also held the trio of Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez to an 0-for-6 mark.

Despite having Witt Jr., who is always a threat, Kansas City is in the middle of the pack in first-inning production of late. The Royals are 15th among 30 MLB teams in first-inning wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers this month and have only scored one first-inning run in their last six games when facing a right-hander. I believe Fulmer can do his part and keep Kansas City scoreless in the first frame.

Bet: NRFI (-105 via ESPNBet)

Chicago White Sox (+200) at San Francisco Giants (-250) | O/U 8 (-105/-115)

Starting Pitchers: Jonathan Cannon vs. Kyle Harrison

We head out West for our second NRFI bet. Kyle Harrison and the San Francisco Giants host Jonathan Cannon and the Chicago White Sox. As was the case with the Angels-Royals game, it feels like the first half of the NRFI equation will be easier to project than the second.

If you're so inclined, DraftKings Sportsbook provides the option of individual team NRFI bets. For example, you can combine the Angels and the White Sox if you do not trust Fulmer and Cannon to do their part. However, that current price (-179) is too high for my liking. I would rather play both games.

Harrison is 15-6 to the NRFI this year including 7-3 at home. He has pitched a first-inning shutout in four consecutive home starts. That should continue against the worst offense in MLB.

Chicago has faced four left-handed starting pitchers since trading off many of their best hitters at the trade deadline. They have scored a total of three runs in those four games. I'm not talking about first-inning runs. I mean three total runs in 36 innings. For what it is worth, White Sox hitters are 2-for-14 with eight strikeouts in the first innings of those four games. Harrison should hold Chicago to a first-inning zero.

Jonathan Cannon has been a loose cannon of sorts when it comes to his results on a start-by-start basis. He is 10-3 overall to the NRFI this year. However, in those three NRFI losses, Cannon has allowed 10 total runs. He either tends to have it early or not at all.

Looking at San Francisco's overall offensive trends can be a bit misleading. They have only faced five right-handed starting pitchers over their last 13 games. The Giants platoon quite a bit, so any numbers that include those versus left-handed pitchers are more or less irrelevant for this NRFI bet.

San Francisco's offense has been slightly below average against righties thus far in August. They have a .161 first-inning batting average and a 34.2% strikeout rate versus right-handers. Both are bottom-five marks across baseball. However, they have a league-high 18.4% walk rate, which has helped boost their wRC+ to 97. Their overall wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers during August sits at 90.

Cannon has only walked 10 batters over seven road starts this season. Therefore, I believe he can navigate his way to a scoreless first inning on Monday night.

Bet: NRFI (-120 via BetMGM Sportsbook)

Make sure to check out our other best bets for Monday: