Now that every Major League Baseball team is multiple games into the schedule, you won’t be seeing any bona fide aces toeing the rubber today. But that doesn’t mean there isn’t any value to be had from an NRFI (no runs first inning) perspective, where I scour the odds to make the best plays of which game will or won’t have a run scored in the first inning. Let's dive into some games on this March 29th slate and make some MLB no runs first inning (NRFI) picks.
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Sunday’s Best MLB No Runs First Inning (NRFI) Picks
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook | Season: 0-0
Texas Rangers vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Starting Pitchers: MacKenzie Gore vs. Jesus Luzardo
MacKenzie Gore is no stranger to the Philadelphia Phillies after spending the beginning of his career in the National League East with the Washington Nationals. While Gore’s 1-4 record and 4.26 career ERA against Philadelphia leave something to be desired, the southpaw pitched to a 2.50 ERA against the Phillies in 18 innings spanning three starts.
Gore is tough on left-handed batters, which is important considering he will face Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber early. The two are a combined 12-for-52 against Gore with one home run, so the big key will be keeping the speedy Trea Turner off the basepaths.
Jesus Luzardo should also match zeros with Gore, as he has a 22.7% strikeout rate in his career against this current Rangers lineup. Texas was also the American League’s fourth-most profitable NRFI team last season, cashing it 73.46% of the time.
Play: NRFI (-138)
Kansas City Royals vs. Atlanta Braves
Starting Pitchers: Seth Lugo vs. Grant Holmes
Albeit among a small sample size of 10 plate appearances, Grant Holmes has not allowed a hit to current Royals hitters, with the lineup producing a .108 xwOBA in that split. But Holmes’ 11% walk rate last year was alarming, and I don’t expect him to positively regress to his walk rate from the previous season (his rookie year), where he walked just 5.3% of batters.
Meanwhile, Seth Lugo has allowed a somewhat neutral .357 xwOBA to current Braves hitters, but played more to the back of his baseball card last year after being one year removed from finishing second in the 2024 American League Cy Young Award voting. He has a career 3.66 ERA in the first inning while allowing a .439 slugging rate, his worst split of any inning.
Braves leadoff hitter Ronald Acuna Jr. is 6-for-14 in his career off Lugo, and Austin Riley and Matt Olson have combined for three home runs in 22 at-bats against the righty, making a yes runs first inning (YRFI) wager a value play.
Play: YRFI (-108)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. New York Mets
Starting Pitchers: Carmen Mlodzinski vs. Nolan McLean
I promise our second YRFI wager of Sunday’s slate is not an overreaction from Opening Day when these teams combined for seven first-inning runs, and reigning National League Cy Young Award winner Paul Skenes didn’t make it out of the first inning.
There is a troubling trend of pitchers who threw meaningful innings in the World Baseball Classic for Team USA struggling out of the gate, with Skenes, Logan Webb and Matthew Boyd having less-than-stellar first outings. I expect Nolan McLean to continue that trend against a Pirates lineup that suddenly has more pop at the top of the lineup with the additions of Brandon Lowe and Marcell Ozuna.
Meanwhile, current Mets have seen the ball well out of Carmen Mlodzinski’s hand, drawing walks at a 20% rate. Neither Francisco Lindor, Juan Soto nor Bo Bichette has a hit off the righty, but they are a nightmare to pitch to with how they work counts. The first two are big reasons why New York cashed the YRFI at the sixth-highest rate last season (67.9%).
Play: YRFI (-104)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.