After a few days’ hiatus due to some travel on my part and a power outage that robbed me of yesterday, we are back with the top NRFI bets of the day today. A full slate with extra games due to a few double headers gives us a ton to choose from today.
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Los Angeles Angles at Cleveland Guardians – 6:10 pm ET
When this game opens, Cody Morris will be taking the mound and making this third career start. Mostly, he has been a mixed bag as they have tried to limit his innings. His walks have been far too high, and the homers have been a bit of an issue, but the sample is extremely small. The MiLB numbers show a pitcher with high-end K-rates and decent walk rates. The hope is that he can retain that minors form and limit walks enough to get through the most dangerous part of the Angels lineup cleanly.
On the other end of the game, we have Jose Suarez taking the mound. The left-hander has been solid this season with a mid-three ERA, and the ERA estimators like him as well. He has nearly a K per inning with middle-of-the-road walk rates. However, this is entirely a handedness play. The Guardians have the second worst wRC+ in all of baseball against lefties, with only Miami worse than them. Their ISO is 0.105, which is the worst in the league against southpaws and, as a result, will make it extremely difficult for them to score against Suarez.
Pick: -110
Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins – 6:40 pm ET
Sandy Alcantara is the betting favorite for the NL CY Young, and he has been nothing short of spectacular this season. While he has struggled a bit of late, he is still one of the best pitchers in all of baseball and has more than enough talent to get through the top of a strong Phillies lineup here. Lately, he is getting bit by the long ball, but his strikeout potential and groundball approach should allow him to continue his success early in games.
For the Phillies, Bailey Falter will take the mound. The lefty has elite walk rates and slightly below-average K numbers, but he has been crushed by the long ball in his 2022 sample. It is one of the major flaws of being a flyball pitcher who gets most of his games in Philly. However, today he gets to pitch in the cavernous Marlins’ ballpark and faces a terrible Miami lineup. Actually, if you remember from the blurb above, Maimi is the worst offense against lefties in all of baseball. Falter should have no issues with the top third of this lineup and should allow it to remain scoreless through one.
This line is higher than I typically like, but regardless the pitcher matchups appear too good to avoid.
Pick: -150
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