The calendar has turned to July, which means the Major League Baseball season is inching closer to the All-Star Break as well as the trade deadline. With just three games on a small Monday slate, we are limiting our two wagers to the Canada Day matinee between the Houston Astros and Toronto Blue Jays, as well as the NL East battle between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals.
Read on for our top MLB picks for Monday, July 1.
Monday's Best MLB Picks
(MLB odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook)
Houston Astros (-144) at Toronto Blue Jays (+132) | O/U 8.5 (-115/-105)
Astros righty Hunter Brown is in position to be the AL Pitcher of the Month for June, as he has a 1.22 ERA and 0.89 WHIP with a 45:8 K:BB ratio over his previous six starts. Brown's 1.16 ERA in June was the best of all qualified starting pitchers, and his 2.96 FIP ranked in the top 17 for the month. He ranks eighth in the most whiffs induced of all starting pitchers over their last 300 pitches thrown, and has allowed just one barrel in that span.
Each of Brown's previous six starts have been quality starts, and he will likely be called on again to be a workhorse as Houston used seven relievers in a bullpen game in yesterday's series finale against the Mets.
Houston has padded its record against teams with losing records this year, going 29-19 against teams under .500 and 13-22 against teams over .500. The Astros have out-scored opponents 19-4 in his last four starts, with him earning the victory in all of them, and thus we are backing him to keep that streak going, especially when opposing Blue Jays righty Yariel Rodriguez, who is making just his sixth MLB start. We have already locked in our Astros moneyline wager as the line will only rise if Blue Jays slugger Vladimir Guerrero is out of the lineup after being hit on the hand and leaving yesterday’s game.
MLB Pick: Astros ML (-144)
New York Mets (-106) at Washington Nationals (-110) | O/U 8.5 (+102/-124)
The Mets had won 16 of 21 games before losing yesterday’s series finale to the Astros. However, it is fair to wonder what the Mets pitching staff has left in the tank, as the bullpen pitched 12 2/3 innings in the three-game series against Houston, and the team got into Washington much later than it would have hoped after waiting out a lengthy rain delay yesterday. It does not help that the Mets have arguably their least dependable starting pitcher going in David Peterson, who has a staff-worst 1.48 WHIP through five starts.
The Mets have won four of Peterson’s five starts, but have provided him with an average of 9.8 runs of support in those wins, which we might expect again when facing MacKenzie Gore. Gore has a 1.707 WHIP and 4.66 ERA in 19 1/3 career innings against New York, and the Mets led the majors with a .985 OPS, .257 ISO, .372 BABIP, and a 181 wRC+ against southpaws in June.
The Over is 21-11 in New York’s last 32 away games (+11.05 units/31% ROI), and are happy to back that trend at plus-money odds tonight.
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (+102)
Mike Spector is a featured writer at BettingPros. For more from Mike, check out his archive and follow him @MikeSpector01.