There are just two more days of the MLB regular season. Let’s continue to find value with some MLB picks before the regular season concludes.
To do that, we’ll use the market-based EV page, which shows all the top +EV bets on the market. I’ve added three to my betting portfolio and shared them below.
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Saturday’s Best +EV MLB Picks
(All bets are for one unit unless otherwise stated.)
Heriberto Hernandez Over 1.5 Total Bases (+140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: +101
- Market EV: +20%
Heriberto Hernandez hasn’t seen great results against lefties in the last month. However, the analytics suggest he’s getting close. Hernandez has hit 35% of ground balls and 45% of fly balls, with 75% hard contact and a 20% barrel rate, over the last 30 days against lefties.
Hernandez will take on Brent Suter of the Braves, who has a low strikeout rate and has allowed a .381 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) to his last 30 righties. Hernandez could take advantage. His total bases prop is priced at +140 when the fair value is +101, making this a 20% market EV play.
This won’t be available forever, so grab it while you can.
Sean Murphy Under 0.5 Total Bases (+124 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
- Fair Value: -104
- Market EV: +14%
In the last month, Sean Murphy has hit 58.1% of ground balls and just 22.6% of fly balls against righties. The right-hander also has a line-drive rate just under 13% against righties and has earned only a .276 BABIP during that time.
Murphy will face Jack Ralston of the Marlins, who has added 31.8% of strikeouts against righties in a small sample size. He’s also held righties to 25% of fly balls and has earned nearly 42% of ground balls. Murphy could hit a lot of grounders against Ralston today.
Let’s bet on him to go under 0.5 total bases at +124. The fair value is -104, giving this play a positive expected value of 14%. That’s huge.
Jonah Tong Over 1.5 Total Walks Allowed (-113 at Novig)
- Fair Value: -137
- Market EV: +9%
Jonah Tong has held his last 67 batters to a .121 ISO and a wOBA of .283 with 50% of ground balls and only 14.3% of line drives allowed. However, he’s still given up 12% of walks to his last 25 righties.
Ultimately, the Nationals have five batters in the projected lineup that have earned above-average walks against righties. The lefties have been better than the righties, but Tong has struggled more against righties, giving the Nationals a legitimate chance to record multiple walks.
This bet is -113 on Novig, but the fair value is -137. The consensus among sportsbooks is that Tong has a higher probability of throwing two walks than the Novig line suggests. So ride that bet out. It’s one of the early games, so get your bets in as soon as possible to take advantage of it.
