NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer: Rams vs. Broncos Picks

Week 3’s Sunday Night Football slate closer sends the Rams into Denver. Los Angeles opened its season with a neutral-site loss versus San Francisco in Melbourne before covering comfortably at home over the Giants in Week 2; Denver got back into the win column fresh off a home cover over Jacksonville (20-13).

In what some might view as a potential Super Bowl preview, Sean Payton versus Sean McVay will be nothing short of a great prime-time watch.

FULL STEAM AHEAD.

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NFL Sunday Night Football Betting Primer: Rams vs. Broncos Picks

Los Angeles Rams at Denver Broncos

Betting Lines & Odds

Erickson’s Pick: Rams -2.5, Over 43.5

Trends

LAR current streaks (heading into Week 3): 4-game ATS non-cover streak AND 2-game SU losing streak both SNAPPED - covered comfortably as home favorites over the Giants (28-6) in Week 2; fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
DEN current streaks (heading into Week 3): 2-game SU losing streak SNAPPED - won at home over Jacksonville (20-13) and covered as favorites; fresh 1-game SU win/ATS cover streak.
The home team has covered the spread in the last 6 Broncos’ home games.
Denver is 14-6 ATS at home.
7 of the Rams’ last 8 road games have gone OVER the total (9-2 O/U in last 11 road games).
Rams ATS on the road as a favorite: 11-4 ATS / 13-2 SU. Interesting quirk as well -> 11-2 ATS as a road favorite when not playing the Carolina Panthers.

Injuries

Your Rams-Broncos practice report for Thursday.

That's a fourth straight practice off for Puka Nacua with the hip/groin issue. Jordan Whittington did return for a limited session.

Kam Kinchens is also going on a second missed week with a hamstring injury. pic.twitter.com/teqmdDTmCS

— Nate Atkins (@NateAtkins_) September 24, 2026

Overall

I’m interested in this Sunday Night Matchup because I see clearly how each offense should attack the opposing defense. On the Rams’ side, they will be without Puka Nacua for the second straight week. Broncos CB Patrick Surtain will likely shadow WR Davante Adams and dramatically limit his production compared to last week versus the Giants. It won’t be a total shutout – Adams has caught 13 of 22 targets for 172 yards and two touchdowns when covered by Surtain, the most targets, receptions, yards, and touchdowns of any pass catcher against Surtain in his career per NGS – but it won’t be close to his Week 2 stat line.

Therefore, I am in the camp that the Rams will lean heavily into their two-headed backfield monster: Kyren Williams and Blake Corum. Per Next Gen Stats, the Broncos have missed 38 tackles through two games, 28 against Kansas City and 10 against Jacksonville. They have missed 11 more tackles than any other NFL defense. Their 24.2% missed-tackle rate is the highest by any defense since at least 2018 in the first two games of a season and is more than double their 2025 full-season mark of 11.3%, the seventh-lowest in the NFL. Through two games, the Broncos rank 32nd in rushing EPA allowed.

We should also see a hefty amount of Terrance Ferguson for a second straight week. No Nacua, and veteran TE Colby Parkinson is also missing time this week with a knee injury.

On the Broncos’ side of the ball, it seems like they’ll have to lean on their quarterback to drop back a lot. The entire stable of Broncos’ RBs is banged up – even with J.K. Dobbins and RJ Harvey projected to play. Bo Nix has been shaky through two games (4th-worst in EPA/dropback), especially when teams have brought extra pressure. Per Next Gen Stats: Against the blitz, Nix has completed just 8 of 23 passes for 96 yards and an interception, a league-low 34.8% completion percentage. The Rams blitzed on 38.2% of opponent dropbacks in Week 2, their highest rate in a game since Week 3 of last season, after doing so at 11.1% in Week 1, their second-lowest in that span. They generated pressure on 10 of 13 blitzes (76.9%) against the Giants.

But when Denver keeps their QB upright (8th-lowest pressure rate allowed this season), they can move the ball efficiently.

The trends are pretty strong, pointing toward the Rams ATS as road favorites (getting value as the road team when they virtually play every game on the road without home-field advantage) and to betting the over at a suppressed 43.5 points (even though they are a combined 8-9-1 toward the total at home since 2024). But without Nacua, I will err on the side of caution toward the total and just take the Rams laying the points on the road.

But then again, Sean Payton is usually lights out in Week 3 (but he doesn’t call offensive plays anymore).

Payton’s career record in Week 3 ATS: 12-5-1 ATS (cover by 3.4 pts on average). Week 4 (also elite): 13-4-1 ATS. Then again, he was supposed to have bad ATS in Week 2, and the Broncos won outright last week.

I stole the Daniel Jones pass attempts prop from Welsh last week, and it delivered (despite the Colts-Chiefs going into OT). It was a fun squad sweat. So we are bringing it back this week: Matthew Stafford going UNDER his passing yards prop. No Nacua. The Broncos have not allowed a QB to throw for 200 yards against them this season. 5-star bet on the BettingPros Prop Bet Cheat Sheet for Week 3.

Conversely, let’s keep betting Blake Corum to go OVER his rushing yards. We’ve bet it twice already this season, and he’s gone over his closing prop (42.5, 48) by a wide margin at 54 and 79 rushing yards in Weeks 1+2, respectively. Denver has allowed 65 or more yards to opposing RBs through two games, and Corum has been so explosive this season on the ground.

Per NGS…Corum is gaining 3.1 yards before contact on average. Kyren Williams has gained 1.5 yards before contact on average this season after averaging 1.3 in 2025, while he has improved his production after contact from 3.5 yards per carry last season (14th/49 RBs) to 4.0 this season. Corum has exceeded 45.5 rushing yards in eight of his last 11 games.

And eventually the yardage will translate to TDs…given that he trails only Ashton Jeanty in rushing yards this season without a TD. The Rams have also scored the first TD twice this season, so I like their side from a 1st TD market side. Corum is 14-1 for the first TD.